Welcome to my snap shot view of the Washington Legislature. One of the big surprises on primary election night was the impressive Democratic turnout we witnessed across the state. Several Democratic challengers put several formerly “safe” Republican districts in play for the first in ages. In fact, there were many races where Democrats outpaced sitting Republican incumbents.
Of course as later tallies came out in the days that followed several Republicans regained their leads. With a few weeks now past for the vote tallies to fully settle, I thought we’d take a look at at how the legislature shaping up for us now.
Before we start I will confess this diary is only looking presidential numbers and the 2018 primary numbers to make ratings. I’m not a native of Washington State nor do I follow intricacies of each specific race.
Without further ado lets’ get onto those ratings
The ratings I use are as follows:
Safe(Candidate is all but assured of a win, about 1% of chance of the opposing party winning, again it will take some major scandal or problem (miracle) on the incumbent's part to make it happen)
Favored(Candidate is heavily favored, Less than 5% chance of the opposing party winning)
Likely (Candidate still has solid advantage, a 10%-15% chance of the opposing party winning)
Lean (Candidate has decent advantage, a 20%-35% chance of the opposing party pulling an upset)
Tilt (Candidate narrowly favored to win, 45% chance the opposing party wins)
Tossup (no clear favorite)
Criteria: For this analysis I settled on 3 specific criteria to look at what seats would be competitive
- Either Clinton or Obama 2012 (or even both candidates) won the legislative district
- Either Clinton or Obama 2012 came close to winning the district (5 point margin loss or less)
- The 2018 Democratic Challenger or the combined Democratic vote made this race close (5 point margin loss or less)
Since Democrats largely bled seats from 2010 till about now, there really aren’t any Democrats really at risk of losing (no worse than Likely D). Republicans largely hold all the swingy turf and there really isn’t much low hanging fruit left for them to claim. The only Dem Senator who sits in a Trump District, Dean Takko (SD19), isn’t even up for election this year and he won rather easily in 2016. Similarly the only Democratic State Rep that sits in a Trump district is Brian Blake (HD-19B) pulled off an awesome 57% of the primary vote this year, leaving me to rate his seat as no worse than Likely D at this point. The rest of the Dem seats were all carried by Clinton and I can’t really see any of those seats being lost in this election environment right now barring some scandal.
For those who wanted that quick snap shot glance I’ve placed my ratings above the fold. And for those who would like to see the full analysis of each seat follow me below the fold
WASHINGTON STATE SENATE RATINGS (R-COALITION HELD SEATS)
safe r |
lean r |
tossup |
Tilt d |
lean d |
Safe D |
SD-31 |
SD-6 |
SD-47 |
SD-26 |
SD-30 |
SD-35 (Lean Sheldon) |
SD-39 |
|
|
|
SD-42 |
|
*All Flips are Bolded and Sheldon is Democrat that caucuses with the GOP. He is facing another Democrat in the general
Washington Senate Final Predictions: Democrats should gain between 2-5 senate seats this November.
WASHINGTON STATE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES RATINGS (of R-HELD SEATS)*
SAfe r |
r favored |
likely r |
lean r |
Tilt R |
tossup |
tilt d |
lean d |
HD-2B |
HD-2A |
HD-17B |
|
HD-26A |
HD-25B |
HD-6B |
HD-5A |
|
HD-31A |
HD-26B |
|
HD-18A |
HD-6A |
HD-10A |
HD-5B |
|
HD-31B |
HD-35A |
|
|
HD-19A |
HD-17A |
HD-10B |
|
|
HD-39A |
|
|
HD-19A |
HD-35A |
HD-18B |
|
|
HD-39B |
|
|
HD-47A |
HD-42A |
HD-25A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
HD-42B |
HD-28A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HD-44B |
*All Flips are Bolded
Washington House Final Predictions: Dems should gain between 6 and 20 house seats this November (a gain of 16 would give Democrats a 2/3rds Majority)
Here’s a link to an interactive map for all the districts to follow along.
BACKGROUND
Washington state uses a similar top two system to what California uses. To put it simply there are no closed primaries for political parties, candidates of every stripe all run together in a blanket primary with the top 2 highest votegetters advancing to the general election regardless of party. So yes it’s possible to get a top two shut out (where candidates from the same party both advance to the general). This happened in the WA treasurer race in 2014 where two Republicans advanced to the general as the multiple Democratic candidates split the vote despite the combined democratic vote exceeding 50%
Democrats for the longest time had suffered set back after set back in the Washington Legislature. After back to back gains in the 2006 and 2008 election cycle. They currently only narrowly control the state senate and state house of reps.
Current Lay of the Land
Washington State Senate
For starters I will say the GOP did luck out here in the sense that there were handful of Republican held senate seats that went rather handily to Clinton but aren’t up this cycle. And as you know until recently the chamber was controlled by a coalition of Republicans and conservative Democrats. Democrats were able to flip one of the turncoat Dem seats and win a Republican held senate seat with Manka Dhingra. So Democrats currently only have a bare 25-24 in the senate. But as you follow through my ratings you’ll see that they have a got decent odds to greatly expand their majorities in the chamber.
Washington State House of Representatives
Similar to the Senate ,the Democrats only have a bare majority 50-48 majority after having no net gains in the chamber coming out of the 2016 cycle. Democrats and Republicans each traded two house seats cancelling out the gains on either side.
Legislative Districts
The Washington Legislature is broken into 49 districts, Each district elects 1 senator and two state reps. This makes it very easy to compare presidential results between the house the senate. For this diary I’ll be going through each competitive district numerically so let’s get started
Washington District 2
2012 President: Romney +2.17 (47.71% - 49.88%)
2016 President: Trump +15.26 (37.79% - 53.05%)
This is one of our reach districts. It has lurched hard to the right in 2016 after Obama came rather close to winning it the previous cycle. Currently Republicans hold all 3 legislative seats here (senate and both house seats). The Senate seat is not up for election this year. While there was some hope that this area might revert back to be more competitive, so far it’s not looking like it. Freshman incumbent Republican Andrew Barkis (2A) appears favored to win a 2nd term over Democrat Anneliese Feld; R-Favored.
Incumbent Republican minority leader, J.T. Wilcox(2B) originally picked up this previously open Dem held seat in 2010 and has had little trouble winning ever since. In fact, he faces no opponent for the general election and thus this seat is Safe R.
Washington District 2
Seat |
Combined D |
COMbined R |
Rating |
HD-2A |
42.87% |
57.13% |
R FAVORED |
HD-2B |
Uncontested |
100% |
SAFE R |
Washington District 5
2012 President: Obama +9.12 (53.41% -44.29%)
2016 President: Clinton +17.62 (54.74%-37.12%)
We now move into some prime pick-up territory. Clinton managed to nearly double up on Obama’s already solid lead here. Democrats only hold the state senate seat here (which isn’t up for election) while the GOP holds both house seats. Republican State Rep Jay Rodne (5A) clearly saw the writing on the wall as Clinton won overwhelmingly and chose to retire. Rodne had held this seat for over decade and usually won overwhelmingly. That all changed in 2016 when Rodne managed to only win by 2 points. Republicans did there best to find a strong candidate with Chad Magendanz who previously held the other legislative seat (5B). In fact he only gave up this seat to challenge incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Mullet (SD-5) and came within 500 votes of unseating the senator. But it appears even Magendanz will have his work cut out for him this time as he trails Democratic challenger Bill Ramos by over 5 points; Lean D Pickup.
In HD-6B freshman Republican Paul Graves currently trails his Democratic opponent, Lisa Callan, by 8 points. Graves though did about the same in 2016 and somehow managed to turn things around defeat his Democratic opponent, Darcy Burner in the general election. Still at this point I’d rather not be in Graves’ shoes this time around with the lean of the year; Lean D pickup.
WASHINGTON DISTRICT 5
Seat |
Combined D |
ComBined R |
Rating |
HD-5A |
54.04% |
45.96% |
Lean D |
HD-5B |
53.34% |
45.17% |
Lean D |
Washington District 6
2012 President : Romney +3.96 (46.76% — 50.72%)
2016 President: Trump +2.03 (44.72% — 46.75%)
We move to a district that contains Spokane, a sleeping giant that seemed to truly wake up this cycle for the primaries. As you can see both Clinton and Obama both narrowly lost this district. Republican hold all 3 seats for this district. We’ll start of with our first senate rating. The state senate senate seat is currently held by Michael Baumgartner (SD-6) who probably best known as the 2012 GOP US Senate Candidate and sacrificial lamb to Maria Cantwell. Baumgartner got his start winning this seat in 2010 knocking out freshman Democratic Senator Chris Marr. It should be noted that seat has been historically Republican,
Chris Marr was the first Democratic senator to represent the seat since 1940! Baumgartner chose to retire this cycle and instead Republican state Rep Jeff Holly of HD-6B will be running instead and faces Democrat
Jessa Lewis. It’s worth noting that Holly’s 52% showing was the weakest GOP showing in the district since 2006;
Lean R.
In seat 6A, freshman GOP State Rep Mike Volz barely led his democratic opponent,
Kay Murano;
Tossup.
In the now recently open 6B seat, Democratic candidates actually had lead the combined vote with just over 50% and thus Democrat
Dave Wilson only needs to consolidate the Democrtic share of the vote to flip this seat;
Tilt D.
Washington District 6
Seat |
ComBined D |
COmBined R |
Rating |
sd-6 |
47.78% |
52.22% |
Lean R |
hd-6a |
49.74% |
50.26% |
Tossup |
hd-6b |
51.07% |
48.93% |
Tilt D |
Washington District 10
2012 President: Obama +2.83 (50.21% — 47.38%)
2016 President: Clinton +1.87 (46.94% — 45.07%)
Republicans currently hold all 3 seats, But we have another R senate seat that isn’t on the table for this election cycle.
In district 10A we have a seasoned GOP incumbent Norma Smith who has held this seat since 2007. Smith isn’t a stranger to close elections, in the 2008 Democratic wave she managed to only win by 500 votes. Still its been a decade since she’s had a close race. In fact Democrats didn’t even bother to contest this seat in 2016 or 2014 and Smith only faced libertarian opponents. Still Smith may likely be at tad rusty as it’s not a great place to be under 50% as an incumbent facing Democratic challenger Scott McMullen; Tilt D.
Meanwhile in house seat 10B 3 term GOP State Rep Dave Hayes finds himself in more precarious situation, trailing by 5 against Democratic challenger Dave Paul. In a battle of the Daves I’d have to say the Democrats are likely winners here ; Lean D Pickup.
WASHINGTON DISTRICT 10
Seat |
Combined D |
Combined R |
Rating |
HD-10A |
50.65% |
49.35% |
Tilt D |
HD-10B |
52.86% |
47.14% |
Lean D |
Washington District 17
2012 President: Romeny +1.08 (48.28% — 49.36%)
2016 President: Trump +1.37 (45.51% — 46.88%)
This swingy south western district narrowly went to the Republicans in the past two presidential races. Republicans again hold all 3 seats (with the senate seat not up for election this November).
In 17A we have freshmen GOP state Rep. Vicki Kraft. This seat has been in GOP since the 2014 election but still remains very competitive. Kraft only won by about 3 points in 2016. What was remarkable about her win was that in primary that year was the GOP garnered only about 48% of the vote with the remainder going to the various Democratic candidates and Kraft was able to pad the GOP vote by 3 points to win the general. Kraft is once again under 50% and will face Democratic challenger Tanisha Harris. With the lean of the year and the fact that this district split tickets in 2012 to elect a Dem and vote Romney I have to peg this as Tilt D.
17B has a seasoned 4-term incumbent Paul Harris who first won the district after the previous incumbent Democrat retired in 2010. Since then Harris has had little trouble holding this seat and often won by double digits. Looking at the primary results Harris was held to his lowest primary share of the vote to date against Democratic challenger Damion E Jiles, Sr. Still Harris looks to be in the drivers seat for the general election; Likely R.
WASHINGTON DISTRICT 17
SeaT |
Combined D |
COmbined R |
Rating |
HD-17A |
50.83% |
49.17% |
Tilt D |
HD-17 B |
45.08% |
54.92% |
Likely R |
Washington District 18
2012 President: Romney +10.27 (43.85% — 54.12%)
2016 President: Trump +8.20 (42.36% — 50.56%)
We now trek into a much more Republican leaning southwestern region of the state. At first glance you’d look at those presidential numbers and even wonder how this ended up on my competitive seat watch. Well this was one of big surprises where Democrats actually had a rather remarkable good night and may end up walking away with a state house seat or two. This is also the district where now congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler got her start as a state representative. So as you’d expect, the GOP holds all 3 of these seats (with the senate seat not up for grabs this year).
So starting of with our first seat 18A we have 3-term GOP state Rep Brandon Vick, who was first elected with no Democratic opposition in 2012. Vick easily won his next two races by nearly 27 points. But this year Vick has struggled and only leads his Democratic opponent, Chris Thobaben, by a only few points; Tilt R.
Over in 18B we have seat that is represented by 3-term GOP state rep. Liz Pike who in the past has had little trouble winning reelection since she first won in 2012. That all changed this year when Pike decided to retire leaving this seat wide open. Democrat Kathy Gillespie currently leads her GOP opponent by nearly 5 points; Lean D.
Washington District 18
Seat |
Combined D |
Combined R |
Ratings |
HD-18A |
48.11% |
51.89% |
Tilt R |
HD-18B |
52.12% |
47.88% |
Lean D |
Washington District 19
2012 President: Obama +9.93 (53.59%—43.66%)
2016 President: Trump +8.95 (41.57% — 50.52%)
We now come to the only district that has Democrats holding seats that were carried by Trump. Currently we hold the senate seat with Dean Takko who managed to win reelection even as this district shifted sharply rightward in 2016. Takko is not up for reelection but Democratic State Rep Brian Blake will be up for another race this November. But Blake looks all but assured of another term as he garnered 58% of the primary vote Likely D.
All that leaves is the sole Republican in this district (19A), Freshman incumbent Jim Walsh benefited both from Trump’s win and the fact that the former Democratic incumbent for this seat lost the the primary, creating an open seat race. Even still, Walsh only narrowly won by just over 550 votes (50.49% — 49.51%) over his democratic challenger to net the GOP a pick-up. Walsh thus had been a prime target for this election and that still seems to be the case looking at the primary results. Walsh only leads his Democratic challenger, Erin Frasier, by a little under 200 votes. Still it should be noted that the GOP trailed in the combined vote for the 2016 Primary (only garnering 44% of the vote) before Walsh managed to win here in a slight upset. It’s obvious that Walsh clearly benefited from Trump’s win, but he clearly won’t have Trump on the ballot this year; Tossup.
Washington District 19
Seat |
Combined D |
Combined R |
Rating |
HD-19A |
49.81% |
50.19% |
Tossup |
hd-19 B |
58.31% |
41.69% |
Likely D* |
*Note Dems already hold this seat
Washington District 25
2012 President: Obama +3.95 (50.87% — 46.92%)
2016 President: Trump +1.33 (45.23% — 46.56%)
Next we have a marginal seat that narrowly voted for Obama and Trump. Republicans hold all 3 seats (with the senate seat not up this cycle)
In seat 25A two term incumbent Melanie Stambaugh decided to call it quits after initially defeating an incumbent Democrat in 2014. Democrats managed to win majority of the primary vote here and Democrat Jamie Smith looks favored to win back this seat; Lean D.
In seat 25 B we have a seat that was held by freshman GOP incumbent state rep Joyce McDonald. If that name sounds slightly familiar its because Joyce McDonald was the GOP stand bearer against Congressman Denny Heck in WA 10th congressional district in 2014. This seat has been in GOP hands since 2010 when the incumbent Democrats narrowly lost by about 100 votes. But in slight surprise Joyce announced that she wouldn’t run for reelection. It’s hard to say what will happen this year as the primary vote was quite evenly divided between the GOP candidate and the Democratic challenger, Brian Duthie. The challenge here is that there was 3rd candidate running as independent (who ran as a moderate) that managed to garner 8% of the vote. At this point its anyone’s ball game; Tossup.
Washington District 25
Seat |
combined D |
Combined R |
Rating |
hd-25a |
52.14% |
47.86% |
Lean D |
hd-25b |
45.40% |
46.60% |
Tossup |
Washington District 26
2012 President: Obama +1.27 (49.33% — 48.06%)
2016 President: Clinton +0.01 (45.36% — 45.35%)
We now move into some more prime D pick up territory. Republicans currently hold all 3 seats here and Democrats have good odds to flip every one. Democrats only narrowly won this district, Clinton’s raw 10 vote win made this the closest seat for the 2016 election.
Lets start with the senate seat for district 26. This seat was originally held current Democratic congressman Derek Kilmer (WA-6). Republican Jan Angel managed to win the subsequent special election in 2012 for a GOP pickup. But this year Angel decided to throw in the towel last minute and left the GOP to scramble to hold this marginal D leaning seat. Democratic candidate Emily Randall managed to lead her GOP challenger by 3 points with roughly 4 points going to an Independent; with Randall so close to the 50% mark I have to call this Tilt D.
In 26A we have 2-term GOP incumbent Jesse L. Young, who unsuccessfully challenged Derek Kilmer for congress in 2012. Young has been a challenge for Democrats to defeat. In 2016 Democrats selected an Independent D to challenge him the general. The the combined R vote fell to mere 49% but Young was still able to win the general election by 13 points (It didn’t help there was more than one D candidate and the fact the winner needed to consolidate vote to win the general) This year the combined R vote sits at 51% but the key difference this year is Young faces a sole Democratic candidate, Connie FitzPatrick, who already has consolidated the vote. With the lean of the year I’m keeping this as Tossup.
In 26B we have two-term incumbent Michelle Caldier, a pro-choice moderate who has come under fire for inappropriately steering $81,000 in state money to the ARC of the Peninsulas, which is led by her fiancé, Chris Tibbs. Caldier managed to hold off a Republican challenger and now faces Democrat Joy Stanford for the general. This really comes down whether or not voters find this scandal worth deposing Caldier or not. The combined R vote seems to take this race off the board but will see if Stanford can make this scandal an effective hit; Likely R
Washington District 26
Seat |
Combined D |
Combined R |
Rating |
sd-26 |
49.58% |
46.39% |
Tilt D |
hd-26A |
48.92% |
51.08% |
Tossup |
Hd-26b |
41.77% |
52.90% |
Likely R |
House District 28
2012 President: Obama +11.07 (54.44% — 43.37%)
2016 President: Clinton +13.65 (52.61% — 38.96%)
We now move to another blue leaning district that still has Republican representation. The GOP holds a senate seat (sadly not up for reelection) and one state rep seat.
In 28A we have have 3-term GOP incumbent Dick Muri (who some might remember as the 2012 challenger to Denny Heck in Washington’s 10th congressional district) Muri has had little trouble holding this seat until this year when Democratic challenger (and 2016 candidate) Mari Leavitt lead Muri by over 5 points; Lean D.
WASHINGTON DISTRICT 28
SEAT |
Combined D |
COmbined R |
Rating |
28A |
53.2% |
46.80% |
Lean D |
Washington District 30
2012 President: Obama +19.527 (58.70% — 39.18%)
2016 President: Clinton +20.81 (56.77% — 35.96%)
You’re looking at some very blue turf here. It might even shock you to know that leading up to the 2016 election the the GOP held all 3 legislative seats here.
Right now there’s only one Republican left here and that’s Conservadem turned GOP senator Mark Miloscia. Some of you might remember that Miloscia who had previously served as conservative Democratic state representative (1999-2013). When he decided to run for an ill-fated bid as state auditor, things got heated. Many of the party regulars were not a fan of Democrat that opposed gay marriage and abortion in 2012 and thus Miloscia only garnered 10% of the vote. Still feeling bitter from the primary loss, Miloscia decided to switch parties for his political return. Democratic Majority whip and Senator Tracey Eide decided to retire and newly turned Republican Miloscia threw his hat into the ring, easily capturing the seat for the GOP.
But as they all good things must come to an end. The alarm bells were sounding off for Mark Miloscia back in 2016 where he saw both of his fellow incumbent GOP state reps lose to their Democratic challengers (who are quite safe for reelection this cycle). Miloscia had been lucky that he wasn’t on the ballot that year and have to deal with Clinton’s near landslide win of the district. But it appears Miloscia’s luck has finally run out as he garnered only 48% of the vote and now faces Democratic challenger, Claire Wilson by 5 points; Tilt D.
SEAT |
Combined D |
Combined R |
Rating |
SD-30 |
51.94% |
48.06% |
Tilt D |
Washington District 31
2012 President: Romney +2.05 (47.88% — 49.93%)
2016 President: Trump +8.55 (41.61% —50.16%)
Moving to district 31 we have seat that has shifted to the right Romney only narrowly won it in 2012. As you’d expect the GOP holds all 3 legislative seats for the district.
Let’s start with senate District 31 we have incumbent R Phil Fortuno who first won this seat via special election in 2016 following the resignation of GOP senator Pam Roach. Fortuno had previously been the GOP house rep candidate in 2014 (31 B) and lost to incumbent Dem state Rep Christopher Hurst. Garnering 56% of the vote, Fortuno still looks safe for another term against Democrat Immaculate Ferreria; Safe R.
In 31A we have 2-term GOP incumbent Drew Stokesbary. SInce his initial election in 2014, Stokesbary has had little trouble holding his seat. The Democrats didn’t even field a candidate in 2016 and this year Stokesbary still looks like a decent shot to win another term against Democrat Victoria Mena; R-Favored.
Seat 31B was held by Democrat Chris Hurst as recently as 2016. But once Hurst retired in 2016, Phil Fortuno flipped the seat for the GOP. But Fortuno didn’t stay there too long and quickly sought a promotion to the state senate. Republicans managed to hold seat in the subsequent special election with Morgan Irwin. Despite Irwin having barely a year to get a foothold in the district the primary results show that Irwin is in little danger of losing in November to Democrat Mark Boswell; R-Favored.
Washington District 31
Seat |
Combined D |
Combined R |
Rating |
SD-31A |
37.88%
|
56.07% |
Safe R |
HD-31A |
43.67% |
56.33% |
R-Favored |
HD-31B |
40.21%
|
54.45% |
R-Favored |
Washington District 35
2012 President: Obama +5.52 (51.47% — 45.95%)
2016 President: Trump +2.34 (44.25% — 46.59%)
We move to another marginal seat that shifted to the right. Once again the GOP holds all three legislative seats.
We’ll start with the senate seat that has been getting the most of the attention. If you remember it wasn’t that long ago when the GOP teamed up with two turncoat Democrats to take control of the the state senate (2013-2017). One of those turncoats was none other than Tim Sheldon who currently holds this seat. Democrats have been eyeing their chance to get their revenge. Sheldon faced Democrat Irene Bowling who led with a 38% plurality to Sheldon’s 35% (with the remainder going to the GOP. With two Democrats advancing its hard to say what for sure will happen year. It;s up to Bowling to convince voters that she’s the true Dem in this race. Still all those GOP voters who no longer have a candidate are more likely to support Sheldon so I’ll have to leave it at D-Lock: Lean Sheldon. Either way I have feeling Sheldon won’t be a fan of being in the minority for much longer and may rejoin the caucus especially after Democrats pad their majority in the chamber this year.
In seat 35A we have sophomore GOP Rep Dan Griffey who unseated incumbent Democrat Kathy Haigh in 2014. Griffy had tried to unseat Haigh twice before in 2010 and 2012 (both times he narrowly lost). But since his close win in 2014, Griffey has seemed to have little trouble winning his district and this year looks no different as he faces Democrat James Thomas ; Likely R.
But seat 35B is whole another ball game. Three term GOP rep, Drew MacEwenn has held this seat since 2012 when incumbent Democrat Fred Finn chose to retire. This year MacEwenn is in the fight of his political life an narrowly trails his Democratic challenger David Daggett (who is over the 50% mark); Tilt D.
Washington District 35
Seat |
Combined D |
COmbined R |
Rating |
SD-35 |
38.22% |
35.15% Sheldon* |
D-Lock:Lean Sheldon |
HD-35A |
47.09% |
52.91% |
Likely R |
HD-35B |
50.63% |
49.37% |
Tilt D |
Washington District 39
2012 President: Obama +1.92 (49.44% — 47.52%)
2016 President: Trump +10.75 (40.00% — 50.75%)
Over in District 39 we have another marginal seat that swung heavily to the right in 2016. The GOP as you might have guessed holds all 3 seats here. This district includes most of Snohomish and Skagit counties, as well as some of northern King County.
SD 39 was originally held by GOP senator Kirk Pearson who managed to win his first senate race in 2012 with ease even as Obama narrowly won it. Pearson resigned from the senate in 2017 to work for Trump administration and his seat was filled via appointment by fellow Republican Keith Wagoner. There was hope that this seat would be a top target for Democrats without Pearson on the ballot but so far the primary results aren’t making this seat look competitive. Wagoner faced another GOP challenger and their combined hit well over 50% of the vote. Wagoner managed to snag the 2nd slot and will face Democrat Claus Joens. Wagoner only needs to consolidate the GOP support to win; Safe R
Over in 39A we have seat of retiring GOP minority Dan Kristiansen. Some folks think that his sudden retirement was triggered after he made some bad headlines with the statement that “more people have been killed by knives than guns” in Norway. Kristiansen has had little trouble holding this seat since he first won in 2002. Even with this seat open it will difficult to flip. Democrat Ivan Lewis led with 45% of the vote with the remainder split between the GOP; Likely R
In 39B we have appointed Republican Carolyn Eslick who took over from GOP state Rep John Koster. Eslick has yet to face the voters for general election in the district but so far she looks favored as she pulled off decent 54% of the primary vote against Democratic challenger Eric Halvorson. Likely R
Washington District 39
Seat |
Combined D |
Combined R |
Rating |
SD-35 |
37.81% |
57.19% |
Safe R |
HD-35A |
45.84% |
54.16% |
Likely R |
Hd-35b |
45.22% |
54.78% |
Likely R |
Washington House District 42
2012 President: Obama +2.30 (49.67% — 47.37%)
2016 President: Clinton +3.14 (47.57% — 44.43%)
We now move into North West Washington, or I should say Whatcom County to be more precise. We have marginally blue district that shifted ever so slightly towards us in 2016. The GOP once again holds all 3 legislative seats.
Lets start with SD-42 where we have Former minority floor leader and minority whip Doug Ericksen who is currently seeking his 3rd term. Ericksen nearly found himself the subject of a recall election in 2017 when he accepted the Temporary position of interim director of communications with the US EPA under the Trump Administration. Ericksen sworn not to resign from the his senate seat and instead keep both jobs angering many of constituents. In the end a judge there was insufficient grounds for Recall. Despite this, Ericksen isn’t out of the woods yet, in fact he was last seen in Cambodia where served as an election observer for a “sham election”. Lets just say it’s not a great spot for an incumbent senator to get headlines like “What in the world was Sen. Ericksen doing in Cambodia?” Despite being in a Democratic leaning district Ericksen has continued to sell himself as proud Trump supporter. Democrats eyed a potential pick-up and two Dem challengers entered the primary this year and held Ericksen to just 45% of the primary vote. Ericksen now faces Democrat Pinky Vargas for the general. All Vargas needs to do is simply consolidate the Democratic share of the vote to win here; Lean D
Over in 42A we have sophomore GOP Rep and former Vice-Chairman of the Washington State GOP, Luanne Van Werven who first won this seat in 2014. Van Werven has had little trouble winning here. In fact, despite Clinton winning the district, Van Werven actually increased her margin by roughly 3 points in the general election for 2016. But 2018 looks at lot more challenging as Democrats nominated Justin Boneau who lead outright in the primary (cresting above 50%) with the remainder of the vote split between Van Werven and a minor GOP candidate. The fact Boneau led outright and the current lean I have to give the ever so slight advantage for the general election; Tilt D
In 42B we have 4-term GOP state Rep, Vincent Buys who first won here in 2010 unseating longtime Democratic state rep Kelli Linville. Buys has had little trouble winning district ever since his initial election. But that all changed this year when he faced Democratic challenger Sharon Shewmake ,who held Buys down to 47% of the vote. Trailing his Democratic challenger by nearly 5 points, its doesn’t look great for Buys you could almost say its a case of Buyer’s Remorse ; Lean D
Washington District 42
Seat |
Combined D |
Combined R |
Rating |
SD-42 |
54.15% |
45.85% |
Lean D |
HD-42a |
50.74% |
49.26% |
Tilt D |
hd-42b |
52.28% |
47.72% |
Lean D |
Washington District 44
2012 President: Obama +10.47 (54.08% — 43.61%)
2016 President: Clinton +10.72 (50.96% — 40.24%)
We now move to some solid blue turf where there is only one sole GOP representative.
44B we have sophomore GOP rep. Mark Harmsworth who was first appointed to the seat in 2014. Harmsworth has not had it easy holding this seat. In 2016 he was held to just 51% of the vote in the primary. He was able to pad that margin by a 3 points in the general. But this year Democratic challenger Jared Mead lead Harmsworth outright by over six points; Lean D
Washington District 44
Seat |
Combined D |
Combined R |
Rating |
HD-44B |
53.34% |
46.66% |
Lean D |
Washington District 47
2012 President: Obama +13.23 (55.53% — 42.30%)
2016 President: Clinton +16.08 (54.37% — 38.29%)
We come to the last competitive district that met my criteria. The GOP holds two seats here (one senate seat and one house)
In SD 47 we have the seat of former GOP Majority leader Joe Fain who first won this seat back in 2010 when he defeated incumbent Democratic Senator Claudia Kauffman. Fain has managed to secure strong hold in this blue district by burnishing his moderate image. As such it won’t be easy to dislodge him from this seat. Democrats nominated Mona Das who managed to hold Fain to just 53% of the vote in the primary this year. Still it will be an uphill race; Lean R
Update: With the recent news of Senator Fain being accused of rape I’ve decided to move this seat two ratings to the left from Lean R to Tossup
Moving to our final race rating we have 47A represented by GOP Rep. Mark Hargrove who first won this seat in 2010 defeating incumbent Democrat Geoff Simpson. Hargrove had a tough reelection race in 2012 when he won by just under 200 votes. But Hargrove quickly established a better hold on the district easily won in 2014 and 2016. This Democrats nominated Debra Entenman who managed to garner an impressive 48% of the primary vote. Hargrove was held to 49% with the remainder going to an independent; Tossup
Washington District 47
Seat |
Combined D |
Combined R |
Rating |
Sd-47 |
46.29% |
53.71%
|
Tossup |
Hd-47A |
48.07% |
49.03% |
Tossup |
Anyways thanks for reading my diary feel free to let me know your thoughts or quibbles in the comments.
I’ll leave ya’ll a cool indie track (driving through my sector of inland empire California)