Do the Dems realize that most of the people not getting paid are Democrats?
- Tweet from Donald Trump
Are you enjoying the shutdown? No? Well, get used to it. Because more are coming. Or at least, the threat of more shutdowns is coming. And that threatens to destroy the process of Congressional deliberation — in fact, it’s doing so right now.
Understand first: the Democrats will cave. They have to. Because Democrats care about workers. Because they care about people not being able to pay their mortgages. They care about people not being able to buy groceries. They care about all the services that people are not getting during the shutdown.
Democrats care. Trump doesn’t. In fact, Trump practically admits that his shutdown is designed to hurt Democrats and their voters. In a Tweet dated December 27, 2018, Trump said “Do the Dems realize that most of the people not getting paid are Democrats?” To Trump, it’s the Democrats’ responsibility to end the pain and suffering of out of work government employees; Trump couldn’t care less.
So the Democratic Party will cave. And the consequences will be dire.
Understand, second, that this is the end game for President Trump: to normalize the use of government shutdowns to achieve policy goals. When the Democrats cave, Trump will know that if he threatens the livelihoods of workers, and the services of needy taxpayers, the Democrats will give him what he wants.
What is happening now, will happen again and again and again. It will happen in three months or six months or twelve months… OR ALL OF THE ABOVE.
Trump doesn’t even have to cause a shutdown. He will simply threaten to cause a shutdown. And that will cause enough fear, uncertainty, and doubt to spur chaos. The fear of crisis will cause panic. And Trump will get what he wants.
The normalization of policy-setting via shutdown negotiation will lead to a consequence that we are already seeing now: the end of the Congressional deliberative process.
Under normal circumstances, laws are passed after deliberation, that is, long and careful consideration and discussion. First, issues and needs are identified, often after stake holders contact Congress. Then a Congress person or persons will talk about things, and then hold sub-committee and Committee hearings to discuss the issue where stake holders can discuss the issues.
The committees decide by vote if the issues should be addresses by laws which Congress should pass. The appropriate legislation is crafted. Every word is important, and wording can be the focus of intense debate.
The matters go to the full Congress, where it can be debated, perhaps modified, perhaps referred back to committee. If the Congress likes it, it will be voted upon with favor, and the two houses will meet to create a version both of them like.
Eventually, the president will sign-off, if he so wishes. If he vetoes, his veto can be overridden.
This whole deliberative process is being overridden by the current shutdown negotiations.What we have now is an ad hoc process to make policy on the fly while workers are suffering and people are being denied needed services.
I cannot tell you how angry I feel when TV and cable talking heads ask Democrats, “why do you need to wait until the government is open?… why don’t you just make a deal now?”
The answer is that under usual circumstances, it takes weeks, and months, and even years to get certain laws passed. We shouldn’t just shove policies ideas through Congress under artificial timelines, or under the threat of hostage taking. But it’s happening. The process for making law is being accelerated to the point where full-fledged, thoughtful, and fully-informed deliberation is impossible.
As a result, we have the White House suggesting a compromise whose policies neither Democrats want, nor many Republicans want. Had the White House spent time — a couple of weeks even — they would know that this compromise was dead on arrival, and maybe even politically dangerous for them (they should have consulted Ann Coulter before they did anything). But the need to do something, now, led to a non-starter of compromise.
The Democrats have it right: the government shutdown must end now. We can’t wait for a negotiated settlement, because that could takes days, weeks, months. We should let the deliberative process run its course. In that time, compromises that actually make sense can be reached; but that will require consideration, contemplation, discussion, and modifications, and we shouldn’t short cut from those steps.
Sadly, what the Democrats want, and what the people should get, they probably won’t get. Because hostage taking works. Because the pain and suffering of our workers is unacceptable. And Democrats are not long for mistreatment.
But the end of deliberation is at hand. Trump thrives on chaos and crisis. He really doesn’t care who suffers. Or more precisely, he doesn’t care if government workers who are Democrats suffer, because he likes to see them suffer, and because they make useful hostages. Trump doesn’t care who gets hurt, as long as he wins.
You think this government shutdown is bad? Folks, you ain’t seen nothing yet.