Boris Johnson’s cunning plan to “deliver Brexit by 31 October” looks like it has hit the buffers. He lost a vote in an extra-ordinary sitting of the Commons on Saturday when agreement to his Withdrawal Agreement was withheld until after the necessary legislation has been passed.
On Monday, an attempt to re-introduce the same bill without the condition was defeated by the Speaker. In a statement he explained that this was unconstitutional and cited the very same precedent which he had applied to similar repeated attempts by May. This forbids the same matter being put to the House in the same Parliamentary session, let alone under 48 hours later. In response to a point of order requesting a copy of the relevant page of Erskin-May, the “parliamentary bible”, he advised an honourable Lady that it was publicly available free on-line. (It is believed William Rees-Mogg has heard of computers but does not want to employ a woman to do calculations for him.)
On Tuesday we had his attempt to get round the conditions laid down on Saturday. He introduced the 140 plus page bill with the necessary legislation to pass the Withdrawal Agreement. This was the “second reading” stage after which it goes “into committee” for detailed consideration, including amendments which might, say, requite a confirmatory referendum. In order to make those amendments, some MPs who are against Brexit and those who have just been persuaded to force another referendum voted to let it go through to the next stage.
Now this is a perfectly normal procedure and often uncontested as the action is in Committee Stage. Normally a huge, highly significant piece of legislation that is in effect an internation treaty take weeks to be properly scrutinised. But we are not in normal times and Boris has to get Brexit through by Halloween or find a ditch to be found dead in (but then Boris never keeps to what he says he will do.) So the next part of the cunning plan was to lay a “timetable motion” setting out the agenda and timings to cover the various issues. For this Boris proposed to allow the Commons consideration time of two …………..parliamentry sitting days. Oh, and a good half hour to consider any amendments that the House of Lords might make on the third day when it supposed to pass into Law.
To use the soccer analogy, here is where the goal was examined by the video referee and disallowed. Boris was batting on a sticky wicket trying to get that timetable through and it was duely defeated when put to the vote. Boris then threw his toys out of the pram and sulked back to his room saying in that case he doesn’t want to talk about it. (More mixed methaphors welcome in the comments!)
Boris Johnson has hit the pause button on his Brexit legislation after MPs rejected his plan to get it through the Commons in three days.
MPs backed his Withdrawal Agreement Bill - but minutes later voted against the timetable, leaving it "in limbo".
After the vote, EU Council President Donald Tusk said he would recommend EU leaders backed an extension to the 31 October Brexit deadline.
But a No 10 source said if a delay was granted, the PM would seek an election.
This is where the buffoon train hits the buffers once again. Under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, general elections can only be called:
- Five years after the previous general election
- On a resolution of the House of Commons with a supermajority vote of 2/3rds, as in 2017
- Fourteen days after a vote of No Confidence in the outgoing government has been passed and nobody has been able to gain a vote of Confidence
One is obviously out. Boris tried the second and although the motion received a majority it was not sufficient to pass the supermajority conditions in Act. Unless he took the extra-ordinary and, given his self-pomposity bizarre, step of tabling a vote of No Confidence in himself, he is stuck on the third.
For the second and, especially the third path to an election, he is at the mercy of Jeremy Corbyn. He controls the Labour vote in the Commons, vital to get the supermajority. By convention he is also the only one who can table a No Confidence motion. Now JC is always up for a good stomp round the countryside spreading the word but his senior colleagues are holding him back. Labour’s policy of “we’ll renegotiate the agreement and ask you to vote against in a Referendum” seems to have gone down like a lead balloon with the public. The party is now swapping second place behind the Tories with the Liberal Democrats in recent opinion polls. Labour also appear to have hit the same DESTRUCT button the Tories have over Brexit. Some of his MPs have resigned the Whip and/or joined other parties over JC’s handling of Brexit and allegations of anti-Semitism within the Party..
There are also good electioneering reasons for leaving Boris swinging in the breeze, a position he is familiar with.
Boris is hoisted by his own petard of declaring, promising indeed vowing that the UK would leave the EU on August 31, 2019. He emphatically asserted that if it did not happen, deal or no deal, he would be “rather be found dead in a ditch”. I understand there are a number of such features on Mr Johnson’s father’s farm.
There is one possible way he could force a no-deal Brexit. That would be to contrive to not have Parliament change that date in one particular Act. However one Tory MP has made the point many times, including on Tuesday in Points of Order to the Speaker, so I am sure people are fore-armed for that little game.
Here is where the Cheshire Cat Nigel Farrage enters with a broad grin carrying a pint of beer shouting “Told you so!”. He is Chairman of the limited company known at “The Brexit Party”. This party uniquely for the UK has no members, only “supporters” who finance it alongside the money their MEPs give from their salaries. So for transparency I prefer the term “Nigel Farage Party” or the NF Party for short.
Unfortunately due in large part to discontent with Theresa May’s government, the NF Party got the most votes in this years elections to the European Parliament. Another party with a clear message on Brexit, in the words of the official T-shirt to “Bugger” it, came second. Labour came third behind the Liberal Democrats and the Tories …..errr…..cough….. fourth behind the Greens who also oppose Brexit.
A large part of Farage’s arguments since the Referendum has been that he his the true holder of the Brexit Holy Grail. He mocked May’s dealings with the EU and has been scathing about Boris’s Hallowen deadline, knowing it was impossible. Presumably now he can spend more time fulfilling another of his threats, to go to the European Parliament to ensure Brexit happens. He appears to be using his usual tactics of disrupting the chamber and generally being Nigel Farage.
So the question becomes does Boris actually want a General Election now? It would inevitably mean a Brexit extension making NF arguments more believeable. While it is highly likely that few, if any, NF Party MPs would be elected, the “Leave” vote will be split. With the “first past the post” electoral system, that could well allow an opposing party’s candidate to come through the middle. (This could also worry Labour to a lesser extent as several are in strong Brexit-voting constituencies)
Now if the election was held before a confirmatory Referendum, there could well be pacts between parties on one side that they stand down their candidate, support and even campaign for the party with the most chance of winning in a particular constituency. This happened in Richmond Upon Thames in the local elections where such an arrangement ousted a Tory council. There could well be General Election candidates whose 6-word party description allowed on ballot papers reads “Liberal Democrat, supported by Green Party” or “Green, endorsed by the Liberal Democrats”.
As for such arrangements for the two Leave parties. Both Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage have egos of Trumpian proportions. It is difficult to imagine them even being in the same room unless they were conveyed in unicorn-drawn carriages driven by the Brexit fairies. Sadly those are not nice but very well financed coach-fairies who know a few American Trolls. They will be happy to persuade BoGel to work together for the common good. That is to destroy post-war international bodies to make America great again. I don’t think even Bannon could handle two Trumps and get them to agree.
If Boris does want his election on his terms, he has one last trump card to play. That is to get through a short Act suspending the provisions of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act and calling a General Election. That would only require a simple majority in both Houses of Parliament. One problem with that is the election timetable would mean that it would be held in the weeks leading up to Christmas. (the minimum time for an election is 57 days if Parliament is dissolved on a Tuesday). The earliest likely time for an election in practice would be from mid-February - leaving Boris to swing for three months in an increasingly chilly breeze.
With Boris kicking the Bill into touch (you really must keep up with these British sporting metaphors), it is difficult to see what he is likely to do in the intervening months. Quite likely the Bill will re-appear Lazarus-like for its Committee Stage, with enough time for proper scrutiny of its provisions and to propose a confirmatory referendum decision.
Boris’s next big vote to lose is getting the Queen’s Speech approved by the Commons. This is the Government’s proposed legislation for the coming Session so rejecting it is not telling HM to “[Liberal Democrat] Orff”, she’s just the messenger. He says he will treat it as a matter of Confidence however the Fixed Term Parliaments Act required an actual vote. Another Boris bluster and another one bites the dust. H
One cast member who will sadly no longer be centre stage after November 1 is Mr Speaker Bercow. He has already announced he will vacate the Chair and not stand at the next election. It is customary for retired Speakers to make limited contributions in the House but no doubt he will sit on the bank bench smiling at the Tories who visciously attacked him on Monday in points of order, dealing with them with good grace and reminding them that they never complained when he made rulings they favoured. He can also be assured of going down as one of the great, if not greatest defenders of the representatives of the People against the power of the executive since Speaker Lenthall. Lenthall stood up against a King who believed himself an absolute monarch. John Bercow stood up against a Pretender who has similar views of himself