Trump and Co. made what could turn out to be the greatest blunder in political history when they relied on Republican-stacked courts to bail out a president under fire for illegal and unconstitutional acts worthy of impeachment and removal from office. Nancy Pelosi understands that if Trump, in his attempt to break the electoral process in this country, has not committed impeachable offenses, there never was such a thing and never will be. Truth be told, Republicans know this as well, but they’re just not saying so in public. For now.
Trump and his minions’ amateur political instincts are no match for Nancy Pelosi’s brilliant counter-thrust when she decided not to wait for the courts to rule and then hear appeal after appeal, drawn out ad infinitum. Trump thought he would run out the clock via total and complete obstruction, but Pelosi called the game over and will be impeaching Trump without court influence on any level and also on only two narrow grounds — Abuse of Power and Obstruction of Justice.
This puts Senate Republicans in a very tough box. Seventy percent of Americans think Trump did something wrong, but they’re not quite up to speed as to exactly what. That will change when many voters actually read the 9-page Impeachment indictment, and perhaps critical parts of preceding documents, so even a 5- to 10-point uptick in pro-conviction/removal could make all the difference in the world during the Senate trial phase.
But even if polls remain as they are today, with slightly more Americans favoring Trump’s removal than not, after Trump’s official impeachment, each Senator must then cast a series of votes — procedures, witnesses called, etc. ; it only takes a majority to approve or deny motions and procedures. There are rumored to be 30 or so Senators willing to convict and remove Trump if the votes were held in secret, so if some of them side with the Rule of Law and the Constitution and block further obfuscation of both fact and law, the Senate trial must then move inexorably to a final vote on the two Articles of Impeachment, and then...
Given the uncontested facts in the two Articles, if a Republican-led Senate convicts and removes Trump, well, it’s all over for the Orange Menace. However, if the Senate allows a Trump circus (which he wants), or otherwise approves Trump’s demonstrably illegal behavior and Trump is not convicted (which McConnell wants), Republican and Independent voters with a sense of both right vs. wrong and what’s constitutional and what’s not will, via secret ballots (like Senators willing to remove Trump if done by secret voting), either stay home or pick whatever Democrat is also on the ballot. And they never have to tell a soul how they actually voted.
We hope it doesn’t have to come to that, so if enough Republicans side with the Rule of Law and the Constitution, we will see Trump’s blunder backfire, and we return to sanity.