Emerson is out with an Iowa Poll.
Biden 23% —
Sanders 22% +9
Buttigieg 18% +2
Warren 12% -11
Klobuchar 10% +9
Booker 4% (first qualifying)
While I’m sure most here will note the Burnie rise and the Warren slide, it is the Klobuchar number that will shake up the race.
There has been talk that Klobuchar was moving and getting a hard second look, this is the first confirmation of that. As an aside I note that Harris and Klobuchar shared Binder as a pollster.
To all the other candidates except Bernie Klobuchar was always the most dangerous. What it looks like happened is a lot of Warren’s support has shifted to Klobuchar (see Klobuchar’s second choice numbers). Buttigieg’s rise was fueled to a large extent with Warren defectors but that only indicates how soft that was. Now that Klobuchar is showing as at least a possible option both Mayor Pete and Biden have to worry about any slips. There is an experienced younger midwestern moderate alternative. This could also hurt Bloomberg if this turns out to be a trend.
You should also see that the top tier Bide/Sanders/Buttigieg narrative will also be brought up. But now there is a clear second tier of Warren/Klobuchar. But that is a fraught dynamic, especially with the Harris departure. The dynamics of the race are different then it was this morning.