State Fair politicking seems to be making a difference, even as this is a minor poll compared to the Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll. And this is a caucus state.
The poll was conducted online August 9 to 11, right in the middle of peak Iowa State Fair campaigning, and surveyed 621 likely Democratic caucus-goers on questions related to the Democratic horserace. That part of the poll had a ±3.9% margin of error.
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The good news for progressives is that the two most left-leaning candidates command nearly half of the support in the incredibly fractured Democratic field. The recent concerns that Warren and Sanders would split the progressive base too much for either to succeed does not appear to be happening, or at least not in Iowa for the moment.
Biden, on the other hand, risks a costly defeat in the lead-off state if his numbers continue in this downward direction. This poll was conducted in the few days after his latest gaffe on the Iowa campaign trail where he stumbled over a line talking about “poor” kids and “white” kids. He has, however, ramped up his staffing in Iowa in recent weeks, now running one of the largest operations here.
iowastartingline.com/...
The Iowa caucuses are arguably the most difficult assignment for any pollster. That is because relatively few people attend them, and people can, and do, change their minds in the caucus room.
Any poll done ahead of that faces the challenge of finding likely caucusgoers and gathering enough data to assess the “what ifs?” of caucus night. I’ve said many times that it should not be possible to be accurate in polling caucuses. All we can do is take our best shot.
For the past several caucuses, that’s worked out OK for the Iowa Poll.
The Iowa Democratic Party is finalizing rules that will add a new universe of participants to the mix. Six virtual caucuses will be held in an effort to make the first-in-the-nation contest more accessible to those who might not be able to schedule several hours on a February Monday evening to take part in person.
These virtual caucuses, as they are currently envisioned, will proceed much like the in-person meetings, except via phone or computer. There will be a message from the party chair, statements from candidates’ campaigns, and perhaps some other party business. Then participants will be asked their candidate preference, and that will be done five times to help the party work out which candidates are and are not viable. So, it is still a commitment of time.
www.desmoinesregister.com/...