For over a year some of us here have been following Dr. Rachel Bitecofer of the Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy and posting about her innovative new forecasting model that correctly predicted the 2017 and 2018 blue waves.
Until 2017, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball was considered the gold standard in forecasting Virginia elections. Therefore, it made sense MSM paid far more attention his Crystal Ball’s prediction of a “too close to call” VA governor’s race.
Although all recent public polls show Northam leading Republican nominee Ed Gillespie, the margins vary a great deal, and reports suggest recent campaign surveys have found the race to be inside the margin of error. The reality is, the demographics of the Virginia electorate help explain why a close contest for governor isn’t a surprise. And developments in the campaign have probably helped to make it even more competitive for Gillespie.
www.centerforpolitics.org/…
However, it was the rookie Dr. Rachel Bitecofer who corrected called the governor’s race in advance for Northram and further predicted the anti-Trump effect would result in Democratic blue wave across the Commonwealth of Virginia in 2017.
This success led a classy Sabato to follow Dr. Bitecofer’s prediction closely. In July 2018, Sabato gave her a shout-out for her bold prediction of another Democratic blue wave.
Dr. Bitecofer did miss a few key Senate races, but, she nailed nearly every House flip well in advance of every other forecaster. When 538, the Crystal Ball and other national forecasters grew timid over the summer and fall’s tightening House polls, Dr. Bitecofer stuck by her negative partisanship model.
Yet, after her successes, Dr. Bitecofer received little to no media attention.
On July 1, 2019, Dr. Bitecofer made another bold prediction. Her forecasting model found the Democratic nominee will win at least 278 electoral votes.
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I’m happy to report the ‘data girl’ has finally broken through the ‘data bro’s world” and begun to receive the media attention she richly deserves.
But on July 1, newcomer Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, Virginia, released her prediction of a 42-seat "blue wave," while also citing the Arizona and Texas U.S. Senate races as “toss-ups.” Her startling prediction was numerically close to perfect; Democrats will end up with a gain of 40 or 41 seats, depending how the re-run in North Carolina's 9th district turns out.
www.salon.com/...
Lawrence O'DonnellVerified account @Lawrence
Tonight the brilliant @RachelBitecofer makes her debut @TheLastWord 10pm!Rachel predicted the 2018 40 seat Blue Wave & now she’s predicting at least 278 electoral votes for the Democrat. Any Democrat.
9:29 PM - 19 Aug 2019
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Kudos to Dr. Bitecofer finally receiving the national attention she deserves. Democratics would do well to pay attention to her 2020 National Voter Survey and analysis.
We should also take heed of her warnings of a 3rd party spoiler.
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