It’s August, so it’s that time again.
Yes, the approach of the peak of Hurricane season (September 10th) and after a fairly quiet start, the Atlantic is wide awake with one threatening hurricane.
DORIAN
At 5pm:
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC
LOCATION...22.5N 67.7W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM E OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
WHERE IS DORIAN GOING:
One will note that at day 5, the error bars are extremely large. There is a great deal of uncertainty as to where Dorian will end up.
While it is likely that sometime over the weekend, Dorian will turn sharply to the west, it is not so certain where that turn will occur. Where that turn occurs will determine who in Florida gets the worst.
However modeling for much of today seems to indicate that at day 5, the hurricane will slow down. This is because the ridge of high pressure that will cause Dorian’s hard turn toward Florida may break down, according to some modeling. FishOutOfWater explained this earlier today and explained it very well. This would cause the hurricane to slowdown, and possibly turn to the northwest and north again, perhaps sideswiping Florida or missing it entirely if it has not made that westward turn yet. There’s also beyond Florida. Further north as an East Coast runner? Or into the Gulf?
Because of this I’m very hesitant to forecast any landfall location, or even a landfall date, until further information is available. That won’t be until a large and coordinated release of weather balloons occurs across the Southeast . That is underway this afternoon, and should be underway tomorrow. The data they collect will vastly improve the model output, and give forecasters a better and more detailed look at what the atmosphere is doing. As such, I don’t expect a firm forecast until Friday night or Saturday morning.
That brings me to another topic. It is tempting to snark about Mar-A-Lago being destroyed. I’m going to burst that bubble. Mar-A-Lago sits 20+ feet above sea-level and is built like a fortress. Storm surge is of course destructive, but for most of Florida’s East Coast, you simply don’t get Katrina-level surges. The offshore bathymetry simply doesn’t support it in even the most severe level of hurricanes. It is unlikely a landfall that’d place Mar-A-Lago under the worst conditions would level the place, or even do it damage significant enough that would force its permanent closure. I would also point your eyes to Mar-A-Lago’s west, where the middle-class and diverse city of West Palm Beach sits, and to West Palm Beach’s immediate north where the working class black city of Riviera Beach is located. 100,000+ people live in West Palm Beach, 35,000 live in Riviera Beach, well over a million people live in Palm Beach County and close to seven million call South Florida home. Be mindful of your jokes.
I won’t be available most of the weekend, but I think you’re all in good hands with Mark Sumner and FishOutOfWater and others.