The Big Ten came to Houston and we finally got to see all the Democratic primary leaders on the same stage…and it was a pretty spectacular site to behold. The depth of the Democratic field was evident in Houston and, without the nuts and vanity candidates on stage, everyone had a chance to shine. Next stop, Ohio. (Vox)
Beto O’Rourke continued to keep his promise to give everyone a voice by visiting Katy and Plano after his stand-out debate performance. Possibly more than any other candidate at this point in the race, the Beto campaign understands that the next presidential race will be won in the suburbs. Multiple analysts are seeing a major Republican weakness in the suburbs that can be exploited. (Texas Tribune)
Giving a huge middle finger to the recent and extreme anti-choice misogyny coming out of the Texas legislature, Austin created a fund to help women in Texas with the cost of abortion. The move is a push back against a new Texas law that bans local governments from giving money to groups that provide abortions—even if that money doesn't pay for the actual procedure. The Austin City Council set aside $150,000 to give to nonprofits led by abortion rights activists that provide logistical support services (like transportation and hotels) for low-income women in the city. (NPR)
In 2017, Gov. Greg “Hey” Abbott recalled the Texas State Legislature (who, inexplicably, only meet every 2 years) into a special session because he was afraid of where transgendered citizens of Texas would have to go pee-pee. But in 2019, after two mass shooting in his state, he refuses to call a special session to address the issue of gun violence in his state, including closing background check loopholes, banning the sale of large capacity magazines, and confronting the rising tide of racism and white nationalism. Which just goes to show that Texas Republicans are more worried about other people’s genitalia that the violent deaths of their citizens. (The Independent)
The new “tents courts” for detained migrants in Texas started like all Trump projects—with confusion and disorganization. These jumping-marsupial pieces of court stagecraft, created for show (cough-Fox News-cough) instead of substance, saw only about half the migrants show up and most did without legal representation. In another unprecedented, and probably unconstitutional move, attorneys and advocates from the American Civil Liberties Union were shut out of the proceedings. (NBC)
Mini-Rant – Texas May Be the Key to Trashing the Electoral College
Texas and its ever-purpling electorate might be the key to getting rid of the Electoral College. Because of the power of the few “competitive” states, most candidates (both Democrats and Republicans) ignore most of the country when they campaign. For example, in 2016, 94% of all public campaigning took place in 12 states, and 70% took place in just six states.
Last week, I talked about how most candidates (but especially Democrats) have ignored Texas for years. In some small ways that’s good—we don’t get the continuous flood of robocalls right during the election season—but overall, it’s demoralizing to the Democratic electorate and one of the factors in low voter turnout. But in 2020, with polls showing Trump losing in head-to-head battles with most Democrats and several Texas Republicans announcing their retirements from Congress, suddenly everyone is talking about Texas again.
If Texas becomes a swing state, it may be Republicans instead of Democrats who’ll want to trash the Electoral College. Remember, Texas has the second-largest total of electoral votes (38). With those votes in play, Democrats could win all the states they won in 2016, plus Texas, and get to 270 without winning Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin. Some projected demographics also show Democrats doing well in New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, Georgia and North Carolina (totaling another 55 electoral votes). With Texas thrown in, suddenly Democrats have several new paths to 270. If this doesn’t scare the GOP, it should, and it could lead to a sudden Republican loathing of the Electoral College.
Many political analysts think Trump’s path to a second term will be the same as his first—losing the popular vote but winning the Electoral College. Republicans have often been on the losing end of the popular vote and, as a result, Dems have fought to get rid of the Electoral College while the GOP have fought to preserve it.
But if voters feel they have a stake in every election, voter turnout could increase dramatically since research suggests that living in a battleground state increases the likelihood of participation in an election. In addition, increase campaign activity affects people's decision to vote. This new election map created by abolishing the Electoral College could allow Republicans to pick up significant votes in traditionally blue states by campaigning in areas where conservatives are in the majority (every blue state has these cities and counties) and add these votes to the red state ballots they already have. This could be a new election strategy the GOP thinks they can win.
The United States in the 21st century is very different than it was when the Electoral College was instituted. It was originally created as a compromise between those who wanted direct election and those who mistrusted average voters' intelligence and ability to choose candidates. But it ended up giving sparsely populated areas of the U.S. the power to hold the majority of us hostage. If every state is seen as a “battleground state” with votes to be had on both sides, then candidates would be compelled to campaign in those states. Texas is the first high-population, high-electoral-vote state that could act as a proving ground for how future elections are run.