Hurricane Dorian is stalled over eastern Grand Bahama Island. It is an intense, terrifying, and remarkable hurricane.
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...26.7N 78.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.14 INCHES
This is a life-threatening situation. Residents on Grand Bahama Island should not leave their shelter when the eye passes over, as winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter until conditions subside later today.Hazards:- Wind Gusts to 200 mph- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of the day, causing extreme destruction on the island.
We can confirm that the storm surge has verified at least on Grand Bahama, where this remarkable video was shot by the Bahamian Minister of Agriculture and MP for Marco City, Michael Pintard
This would unfortunately submerge much of the island, which is populated from end to end.
News out of the Abacos is spotty and unconfirmed. After the eye passed, the back side of the hurricane dismantled whatever remaining telecommunications infrastructure was standing and there’s been very little contact since. Two storm chasers were in the Abacos, Jim Edds in Hope Town and Josh Morgerman in Marsh Harbour. Mr. Edds has reported in safe and sound, but I’ve not been able to confirm anything about the fate of Mr. Morgerman or the people he was sheltering with at Central Abaco Primary School.
A hurricane of similar strength tore through the Abacos in 1932. Dorian is likely much, much worse.
The hurricane drifting moving just north of due west, as an expected turn to the northwest and north is now underway. The high pressure to its north that has guided its track has finally broken down. This evening and into tomorrow, Dorian should begin to move away from the northwest Bahamas and toward the US coast. This unfortunately means a prolonged period of devastation for Grand Bahama.
The hurricane is expected to weaken as it moves away from the Bahamas, however its wind field will then expand.
It is important to note that a long stretch of coastal east Florida will experience a prolonged period of rain, wind, and storm surge. Some storm surge forecasts rival that of Matthew, which broke storm surge records around Jacksonville in 2016. Any wobbles in its track north could bring the core of the hurricane on shore. This appears to be unlikely right now for Florida, but things could change.