Welcome to the October 2020 edition of BeloitDem’s congressional race ratings! All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them, except for NC-2 and NC-6, which are rated safe Democratic pickup. All single-party general elections not listed are considered safe for the incumbent. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Explanations for my rating changes are below the fold. As always, feel free to quibble.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Likely d |
lean D |
tossup |
lean r |
likely R |
CO
ME
NV
VA
|
AZ
MI
PA
MN
NE-02
NH
WI
|
FL (Tilt D)
GA (Tilt R)
NC
ME-02
TX (Tilt R)
|
IA
OH
|
AK
KS
MO
MT
NE-01
SC
|
GOVERNORS
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
NC-GOV |
|
|
MT-GOV
|
MO-GOV
NH-GOV
VT-GOV
|
SENATE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
MN-SEN
NH-SEN
VA-SEN
|
AZ-SEN
CO-SEN
MI-SEN
ME-SEN
NC-SEN
|
IA-SEN
GA-SEN A (Tilt R)
GA-SEN-B
|
AK-SEN
KS-SEN
MT-SEN
SC-SEN
TX-SEN
|
AL-SEN
|
HOUSE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
AZ-2
CA-10
CA-21
CA-39
CA-49
FL-7
FL-27
FL-13
IL-6
KS-3
MI-11
NH-1
NJ-5
NJ-11
NV-4
NY-19
OR-4
PA-6
PA-17
PA-8
TX-32
WA-8
WI-3
|
AZ-1
CA-25
CA-48
GA-6
GA-7
IA-1
IA-2
IA-3
IL-14
ME-2
MI-8
MN-2*
NJ-3
NJ-7
NV-3
NY-11
PA-7
TX-7
TX-23
TX-24
VA-2
VA-7
|
AZ-6
FL-26 (Tilt D)
IN-5
MO-2 (Tilt D)
MT-AL (Tilt R)
NE-2
NJ-2 (Tilt D)
NM-2 (Tilt D)
NY-22
NY-24 (Tilt R)
OH-1
OK-5
PA-1 (Tilt R)
PA-10
SC-1
TX-21
TX-22
UT-4 (Tilt D)
|
AK-AL
CO-3
IL-13
KS-2
MI-3
MI-6
MN-1
MN-7
NC-8
NY-1
NY-2
TX-10
VA-5
WA-3
|
AR-2
CA-22
CA-50
FL-15
FL-16
FL-18
IL-12
KY-6
MI-7
MN-8
NE-1
NC-11
NY-21
OH-10
OH-12
OH-14
PA-16
TX-2
TX-3
TX-6
TX-25
TX-31
WI-6
WI-8
|
*Rating for MN-2 is for who will hold the seat in March, regardless of when the election is held.
SINGLE PARTY GENERAL ELECTIONS
SeAT |
RATing |
CA-29
CA-53
WA-10
|
Likely Cardenas
Tilt Jacobs
Lean Strickland
|
Likely D to Safe D:
VA-10: I’m sorta late to the game here, but this one isn’t happening.
Likely D to Leans D:
MN-2*: Slightly better chance of Republicans puling this off in a February special, but Craig is still a strong incumbent.
Leans D to Likely D
CA-10: Biden should do pretty well in the Central Valley.
Tossup to Leans D:
CA-25: The partisan lean of this district is reasserting itself.
ME-2: Jared Golden has had some ridiculously good polls.
NE-02 PRES: Suburbs suburbs suburbs.
Tossup / Tilt R to Tossup:
IA-SEN: We’ve seen a clear pattern across a lot of polls of Greenfeild running ahead of Biden, which gives me more confidence that she could survive a small to modest Trump win.
Lean R to Tossup:
GA-SEN-B: In chasing the runoff slot, both Loeffler and Collins have degraded themselves with the general electorate in a way Purdue just hasn’t really had to. Also, I am no longer as convinced that the runoff will structurally favor Republicans, especially if the Supreme Court strikes down the ACA in November / December and turbocharges Dem turnout.
OH-1: Suburban realignment go brrr / Biden might win the district.
PA-10: DePasquale has had good ads and some good polling recently. Still a tough district.
Lean R to Tossup / Tilt R:
MT-AL: We’ve seen a few polls with Williams doing slightly better than Bullock, and her ads have been excellent.
Likely R to Lean R:
AK-SEN: I don’t really trust Alaska polling, but what we’ve seen has been good.
AK-AL: Good polls for Galvin, committees spending like this is a real race.
SC-SEN: We have a live one, folks. Multiple polls have now show Harrison’s numbers creeping towards the high 40s. Still think we probably lose because the SCOTUS fight reduces the R undervote for Graham, but it’ll be close.
TX-SEN: Hegar’s had some slightly better polls, I think the margin in this race will close closer to the Biden-Trump margin. A scenario where Biden wins Texas by a few points and pulls Hegar over the finish line is looking pretty plausible considering some of the polling we’re seeing at the top of the ticket.
VA-5: Still don’t feel great about the prospects of a black guy winning a district won by Corey Stewart, but Webb’s had some decent polls.