Here is a link to the map you see above...and now I will explain things.
The lightest colors in red and blue are the true tossups, and how I am calling them. I have my own secret sauce that blends data I have from various public and not-so-public sites, as well as some stats on various things, including the level of satisfaction to the COVID response, overall right-track versus wrong-track, a baked-in advantage on certain states based on past Presidential voting history, and a factor for Trump’s overall popularity in a state, since he is such a cult of personality. These figures, plus a guess at Independent/Undecided voters, and how they will break...is also built in.
All of these figures are plugged in to my own algorithm I developed, my own “secret sauce” as it were...and used to leaven out the possible effects of the so-called “shy Biden” and “shy Trump” effect (hint: I think that is mostly bullshit, but I am still a little leery because of 2016...so I have erred in a few places on the side of Trump) There are a couple of places, too...where I may err slightly on our side...but the above map, I think...is close to what the votes will say, once they are all counted.
For the record, I am also calling 53 Dem — 47 GOP Senate, with two Independents caucusing with Democrats. This is a flip of six seats...well, seven, considering Doug Jones is toast.
Here’s my flips.
ME (Collins)
NC (Tillis)
GA — special (Loeffler)
GA — (Purdue)
IA — (Ernst)
CO — (Gardner)
AZ — (McSally)
That is seven pickups and then
AL — (Jones)
That is one loss...net gain +6
This gets us to 53.
now, a few outside shots here...in order of likelihood
SC — (Graham) (54 — 46)
AK — (Sullivan) — Gross has said he will caucus with Dems (55 — 45)
MT — (Daines) (56 — 44)
MS — (Hyde-Smith) (57 — 43)
KS — (Marshall) (58 — 42)
KY — (McConnell) (49 — 41)
TX — (Cornyn) (60 — 40)
Now, truthfully, I do not think we pick off more than the top three of these last ones...sorry, folks.
But those are my calls, and how I see it shaking out. I know some will argue my placing AK as a higher pick than MT, and that was actually a tough call for me. The difference-maker here is the Independent streak Alaskans are well known for. Consider that it is the only state in modern history to elect a write-in Senator (Murkowski)
I know some will also be disappointed at the low chances I give McGrath and Hegar, in KY and TX respectively...but I lived in both states, and there’s a lot of baked-in Republicanism in both states that I just don’t think we quite can overcome...but I will be THRILLED if I am wrong.
Another tough pick was placing MS over KS...they also were close...in the end, I chose to place MS higher on the likelihood, because of the non-debate with Hyde-Smith...and Espy had the stage alone. Bollier is a fine candidate who may also make it, but I see Espy making it before she does. Likewise, McGrath is a good candidate (if having a small habit of sticking feet in her mouth isn’t a dealbreaker) and so is Hegar — but I truly don’t think either can overcome, as I said above.
My final call 53-56 Senate seats for the Good Team….and I think 53 is closer...54 at the outside.
I did not evaluate House races, as there are too many, but a pickup of ten is not out of reach. Pie in the sky tops is a 15-seat pickup. I am guessing closer to 6-7 seats.
Thursday, Nov 5, 2020 · 5:15:28 AM +00:00 · Kalisiin
Well, it would seem I had better stick with my current profession!
I think we underestimated the electorate (again) — we all were, as I see it...looking at it from our perspective...he’s played only to his base, turned off some of his 2016 voters...and did nothing to reach out to new groups of voters...and in fact pissed many of us off.
Who’da thunk there would be some folks who did not vote in 2016, when they could have...and who would then vote Trump in 2020...because they liked what they saw? We couldn’t fathom it...but that is what happened.
I think we still prevail, but it will be much less a margin than we all thought!! But we just blew a Senate Majority. The way I see it right now, we have 47D and 49R with 4 seats unassigned, one because of a runoff election being needed, and three because they haven’t yet been called.
Likely, Alaska and NC go R...and we have the Georgia runoff...even if the other GA race goes runoff and we win it, that still only gets us to 49.
Thanks, Cal.
Thursday, Nov 12, 2020 · 3:50:58 AM +00:00
·
Kalisiin
Looking at this map...actually, I did not get it very wrong. I missed ME-02 and I missed NC and FL. All three of them were the lightest color, meaning they were tossups I was throwing our way.
I backwardsed Ohio and Georgia...both also were light colors...and in fact nearly cancel each other out since they are 18 and 16 EV respectively.