Likely D to Safe D:
CA-49: Based on the SUSA poll Levin looks like he’s headed for an ever larger win than two years ago.
FL-7: Can’t spill the beans on the details, but I’ve seen internal polls. The margins on this one are going to be comically large.
IL-6: Biden’s gonna win the district big, and Rs nominated a shitty candidate. I don’t think any of the committees have even bothered spending here.
PA-6: Suburban shift go brrrr
Likely D to Lean D:
CA-21: I still don’t really buy this one, but the committees are certainly spending like it’s a real race.
Lean D to Likely D:
CO-SEN: Bye bye Cory.
ME-2: We’ve seen a few polls with Golden outrunning Biden by a ridiculous amount, and Biden is even money to win the district anyways.
MN-2: No more chance of a March special.
NV-3: Republicans nominated a dumpster fire candidate and Biden should win the district.
PA-7: Some great polling here.
Tossup to Lean D:
SC-1: Honestly, Biden’s probably winning this district.
Tossup / Tilt R to Tossup / Tilt D:
NY-24: Dana Balter is a sorta meh candidate, but it looks like Biden is going to win the district by too much for it to matter.
Tossup / Tilt R to Pure Tossup:
GA-PRES: Yay suburbs and good polls.
TX-PRES: Early voting has been gangbusters and I expect Biden to out perform his polling by at least a few points here like Beto did.
GA-SEN A: Mostly moving with the Pres race, although I should note that I don’t really believe the polls showing the Libertarian at like 4% or whatever and think that a round one Perdue win and a Round one Ossoff win are both more likely outcomes than a runoff.
PA-1: This one gonna be close. Props to Christina Finello for running a real campaign when everyone was writing this seat off.
Lean R to Tossup:
CO-3: Ultimately I still think the district is just a smidge too red, but Dianne Mistch Bush has run a good campaign in this race after the surprise R primary result.
MI-3: Good polls and Dem-trending demographics. Still starting from a kinda tough place.
Lean R to Tossup / Tilt R:
MT-SEN: Ultimately I think we come up just short, but Bullock’s polling has held up a lot better than a lot of other popular Democratic politicians running for Senate in red states.
Likely R to Lean R:
AR-2: I’m more or less being dragged kicking and screaming into this one, I don’t remotely trust the polls we’ve seen here, but there have been too many at this point to ignore.
TX-3: Biden has a decent shot at winning this district and Lulu Seikaly has been running a good campaign.
TX-31: Hate on Donna Imam’s campaign all you want, the fact is that Biden’s probably winning this district.
Safe R to Likely R:
IN-PRES: Added as tsunami bait.
MS-SEN: The last few points will be really tough but the way the Presidential race is looking it could plausibly happen.
CA-4: It has enough suburbanish stuff that get guess I buy it as potential tsunami bait.
NC-9: The way things are going, it’s probably time to put this one back on the board.
Tilt Jacobs to Lean Jacobs:
CA-53: Georgette Gomez hasn’t really been able to close the gap.