Yes, it is quite possible that the Biden/Harris ticket will win 413 electoral votes.
How? Well, first the mechanics.
Biden has a lock on almost every state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 - 233 EVs.*
Michigan, Wisconsin, & NE-02 are out of reach for Trump - 27 EVs. Up to 260.
Add Arizona, Florida, North Carolina & Penna - 75 EVs. A decent win at 335 EVs.
But Texas, Georgia, Ohio & Iowa may flip, too - 78 more EVs. Which makes 413.
(* Well, not quite a lock on Nevada and ME-02)
Why? Which is, certainly, the bigger question.
First, voter turnout. 2020 will have a record voter turnout. Possibly 75-80%.
An additional 15% comes to 20 million more votes.
Since older people and whiter people historically vote more often,
Then these new voters will be skewed younger and more racially diverse.
The latter demographics are strongly Democratic.
So, that 20 million may break down to,12M Dem to 8M GOP, at least.
Not to mention that the greatest increases will be in Sunbelt states.
Adding 4M to the 3M margin in 2016 gives Biden a 7 million margin. Minimum.
Second, during economic and political difficulties, the incumbent party takes a hit.
FDR beat Hoover in 1932 during the Great Depression in a landslide.
Even though the country had been GOP throughout the 1920s.
Reagan trounced Carter in 1980 in a rejection of Great Society liberalism.
Stagflation and the Iran hostage crisis strongly parallel 2020 conditions.
Despite political polarization, the 2020 election may produce similar results.
Third, the “outsider” factor. Donald Trump is now the ultimate insider.
He has manipulated and re-manipulated every federal agency to do his bidding
It’s his baby and he has to answer for it - at least for a majority of Americans.
He has never put a “The Buck Stops Here” sign on his desk.
But the American public has.
Fourth, the polls are different this time.
Biden has led since late 2019 and has exceeded 50% most of the time.
Trump has trailed throughout and has never come close to 50%.
In every other election where an incumbent failed to reach 50%, they were toast.
If anything, pollsters have overcompensated for “hidden” Trump voters.
They aren’t there.
In discussing the groups of electoral votes above I failed to mention one thing.
The last four states - the states that would produce a landslide - TX, GA, OH & IA —
Have complete Republican control of the legislatures and governorships.
At best, they will be close. At worst, the results might be manipulated.
But if it is already clear that Biden has easily won with 335 EVs,
There may be political pressure to abandon the Trump ship entirely.
Stop chewing your fingernails.
Get out there and vote if you haven’t already.
Help others to vote, for sure.
And get out the popcorn.
Because this is going to be a realigning election.
<<<>>>
But wait! There’s more!!
A 335 EV win will likely return a bare Dem majority in the Senate.
But a 413 EV win will give the Democrats a 53 or 54 seat margin.
Candidates like Harrison, Ossoff, Hegar, Greenfield, Bollier & Bullock.**
Flipping 10 Senate seats would be just retribution, for sure.
(**Plus Warnock in January)