There is a lot of discussion right now about Bernie Sanders’ possible impact on the Democratic ticket in 2020. As with most popular, pundit-driven political discussion, this one also features a lot of conclusory thoughts without a stated basis in fact. The anti-Bernie view, expressed by much of the punditry, simply asserts that Bernie Sanders is too ideological extreme to win. The pro-Bernie view, expressed by his campaign as well as his online supporters, essentially retorts that Bernie Sanders will drive up turnout to overcome the loss of an ever-decreasing amount of swing voters. Meanwhile, Democratic primary voters in between the two views are left without an adequate factual basis to evaluate those competing claims.
But, we can change that now! Let’s look at how similar candidates to Bernie Sanders fared in 2018. And, when we consider those 2018 results, there is only one inescapable conclusion — Bernie Sanders could be a disaster at the top of the Democratic ticket in 2020.
Of course, let’s all recall the “blue wave” background of the 2018 midterm elections (both for important context and also just because it is just so fun). After all of the votes were counted, the Democratic Party had its best midterm result since 2006, if not 1974. Indeed, the Democrats’ 2018 performance was stronger than the Republicans’ landslides in 1994 and 2010. Our party picked up 40 House seats and won the House popular vote by 8.6% (the largest margin in history), despite the fact that heavily gerrymandered districts made winning the majority extremely difficult. We also won big at the state level, coming away with 7 additional governorships and 332 more state legislative seats.
In short, 2018 wasn’t really a blue wave, but rather a blue tsunami that swept Democrats into office all over the country. And, where Democrats weren’t winning, they were coming extremely close in districts long considered unwinnable for our party. So, the general rule of thumb when considering the 2018 results and that year’s national environment is that the Democratic candidate almost always performed better than our party’s candidate in 2016.
But, that was not the case for every type of Democrat who was running in 2018. In fact, Democrats backed by the Bernie Sanders-aligned group, Our Revolution, were extremely likely to lose their 2018 races. Of the candidates backed by Our Revolution in 2018, only 27% won overall. And, the outcome was even worse in competitive districts. It is not difficult to think that the Democrats’ already historic margins in 2018 would have increased if the party nominated more centrist candidates in those competitive districts.
Some case studies from 2018 really drive home the story that these overall statistics are telling. The first is the Arizona governor race featuring David Garcia, a professor and Sanders-backed candidate. Despite enjoying a national environment favoring Democrats and sharing a statewide ticket with victorious Krysten Sinema, Garcia lost the governor’s face by a larger margin that the Democratic candidate did in 2014. Similar outcomes befell Kara Eastman, an Our Revolution-backed congressional candidate in Nebraska, and Ben Jealous, Our Revolution’s endorsed candidate for governor of Maryland.
Candidate & Race |
2018 Republican Margin |
Previous Republican Margin |
Change |
David garcia:
Arizona Governor
|
14.2% |
11.8% |
20% increase in Republican margin |
Kara Eastman:
Nebraska congress
|
2.0% |
1.2% |
67% increase in Republican margin |
Ben Jealous:
Maryland governor
|
12.0% |
3.8% |
216% increase in Republican margin |
Now, it would be irresponsible to extrapolate from these case studies that Bernie Sanders would lose Maryland’s electoral votes or that he would have absolutely no shot of winning the 2020 election. Donald Trump is a historically unpopular presidential candidate and Democrats are highly motivated to remove him from office. And, at this point in the game, Sanders is doing just as well if not better than other Democratic candidates in hypothetical general election polling.
But, and this is a big but, there is already a track record showing how Sanders-type candidates perform, even in the most favorable of national environments. And, that is a track record of losing competitive districts that will be the most essential to winning the Electoral College in 2020. Democratic voters should be mindful of that historical fact when deciding who should be the nominee in the most important election in many voters’ lifetimes.