I thought for sure there would be a top contributor with a rec-listed diary on how the candidates answered last night’s debate question regarding a likely brokered convention. Even Kos wrote about 8 takeaways from the debate, and somehow this wasn’t one? Maybe I missed diaries on the subject, but here goes my crack at it:
Last night was an opportunity for Democrats to strike a unified and principled blow against the notion that a relative handful of party elites (superdelegates) are empowered, by DNC rules, to overthrow the popular will of party voters. When Chuck Todd pitched what should have been a softball for anyone who values democracy over personal ambition, five candidates failed to step up to the plate. Neither Bloomberg, Biden, Warren, Klobuchar, nor Buttigieg raised any qualms about the prospect that 771 party insiders will get more delegates than the entire voting populations of the states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, Utah, Vermont and Virginia combined — That’s every state voting up to and including Super Tuesday, minus Texas and California.
This race is way too early to call, and Warren’s stellar performance last night and Bloomberg’s disastrous showing could shake things up quite a bit. But, as currently projected, it’s quite possible that Bernie Sanders wins twice as many pledged delegates as his closest rival, and still doesn’t have the 1991 delegates necessary to win the nomination on the first ballot. So, suppose Sanders is a couple hundred delegates short…. In come 771 super delegates into a mix that now requires, not 1991 delegates, but 2376 delegates to win. Now Sanders, who received far more votes than any other candidate (in the scenario of early 538-type projections), has to persuade maybe 600 party insiders to vote for him on the second ballot.
A reasonable argument can be made that the pledged delegates for the remaining candidates should be able to re-align for the second ballot, much like in the caucuses. The media has been spreading a meme that imagines a moderate majority, split among many decidedly-not-Sanders candidates. But, all data shows this to be false. Sanders is the second choice for both Biden and Warren voters by wide margins, and gets about as many of Buttigieg voters’ second choice as the others do. Sanders wins head-to-head polls of a hypothetical two-candidate race against every other candidate, so consolidation of the “moderate vote” would only help Sanders attain the outright majority of delegates rather than a mere plurality. The candidate who fares best against Sanders in a head-to-head matchup is not a moderate at all. It’s none other than Elizabeth Warren.
Even if you think it’s acceptable to let candidates free their pledged delegates to vote for other candidates on the second ballot, no justification on earth, nothing but pure elitism, justifies the idea that the super-delegates should have more power than the voters of a whole score of states combined. This is like the classic split we’re seeing in unions across the country. The management, in many cases, is not endorsing the preferred candidate of the rank and file. Democrats are supposed to stand for the rank and file.
Just imagine what a shit-show this would be, given the history of 2016 and the already fractious nature of the Democratic electorate. Taking the nomination away from the candidate winning the most votes from tens of millions of voters and handing it to the choice of 771 well-placed individuals would be an electoral disaster. We might as well start calling Trump president for life.
Five candidates blew an opportunity to stand up for Democratic voters and put some democracy back in the Democratic party. Once the writing’s on the wall about who the clear pledged delegate winner will be, if the candidates don’t repudiate the notion of the superdelegates choosing the candidate, then we should repudiate those candidates; let the healing and unification begin prior to the convention. If the candidate with the most pledged delegates (whomever s/he may be) gets the nomination, we will unify and back that candidate and give the Republicans the fight of their life. But, anyone who takes an honest assessment of the voting alliance we need to win, can only conclude that allowing superdelegates to anoint a nominee not chosen by the electorate would not only be wrong, but would be fatal to our opportunity to terminate Trump’s presidency, hold the House, and take back the Senate.
Please tell your candidate, whomever that is, that you want to unify behind any clear pledged-delegate leader prior to the convention.