In a recent diary, the argument is made that Bernie is still very popular, its just that there are now more options.
To quote a few lines from that diary:
THE CRITIQUE: “Last time Bernie got 60% of the vote in New Hampshire — this time only 26%. And this time in Iowa he got just 25% of the vote. He’s nowhere near as popular as before!“
2020 Customer: What are your choices? “There’s a big list on the wall.” Ooh, I love chocolate….but I am really intrigued by that mocha chocolate chip!
So I like that diary, and its pretty convincing.
But let me argue that there are 2 classes of candidates: moderate and liberal. The moderate candidates are: Amy, Biden, Pete, Mayor Bloomberg, Steyer. The liberal candidates are: Bernie and Warren.
Now I like pie: apple pie, blueberry pie, pecan pie.
My wife likes chocolate type deserts: fudge, chocolate cake, chocolate bar, chocolate ice cream.
So if you give us a menu, I kind of can predict which desert each of us will choose.
Similarly, I think if Warren dropped out, most of her voters could go to Bernie.
If Amy dropped out, I don’t think her voters would go to Bernie. More likely to Pete or Biden.
So with that in mind, lets look at the delegate count. We can see a lead- 35 to 29 for the moderates.
Lets look at recent polls. From a recent Washington Post poll… the moderates are ahead 45-44.
Here’s a Nevada poll: the liberals are ahead 51-48
Here’s a South Carolina poll: the moderates are ahead 51-25
NBC poll: the moderates are ahead 47-44
After looking at some of these polls, I feel it is close but maybe the moderates are slightly ahead.