That IMHE model everybody's quoting is getting its data from Johns Hopkins. Unfortunately, Johns Hopkins seems to report the increase in reported deaths by day, which gets fed into the model. Meanwhile Indiana files April 11 deaths reported on April 13 as deaths that took place on the 11th, but duly reports the total number of deaths. Apparently, it takes 1-3 days for deaths in Indiana to be reported and tabulated.
So, here are the last five days before the April 13 update of the model. The IMHE data is the daily increase of the total number of deaths reported.
IMHE: April 8-12: {30, 42, 55, 30, 13}
ISDH: April 8-12: {24, 33, 22, 15, 19}
Note the huge spike on Friday, April 10 in the IMHE numbers. This spike is what tells the IMHE to report that the peak in the number of deaths took place seven days ago. If policymakers rely on that, they will assume that the worst has passed.
It turns out that the iSDH peak took place on the 6th of April, but reports for April 14 are probably incomplete and already approach April 6 numbers.
The Governor of Indiana and Dr. Kris Box our ISDH Commissioner are, thankfully, not quite willing to say that deaths have peaked. Lake and Allen Counties are quite large, saw recent spikes in cases and those spikes are all too often followed by spikes in the death toll. Tippecanoe County, at 160,000 to 200,000 people only reported 55 cases and two deaths, but one tendril appears to be coming down from Lake County on US 52 while Boone County to our southeast is accelerating...hopefully our social distancing will hold the disease at bay.
Indiana’s death toll was lower than IMHE predicted on the 13th and (hopefully) April 14-15 will be less fatal than predicted when the data all comes in.