Peak Coronavirus Deaths?
One model indicates an optimistic picture for Georgia — possibly the peak in deaths is behind us. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in its update today indicated the peak death rate in the state occurred 11 days ago when 100 people died on one day. The noon death count tallied for today stands at 5. Additionally, the projected total deaths has fallen from 2600 to 1400. Last projected peak deaths reported in this series was to occur near the end of April, or May 1st.
The IHME model has been cited by White House officials and public health experts in Georgia. It has informed state and local leaders’ decisions on business closures and social distancing rules.
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The Seattle-based institute estimated that relaxing social distancing may be possible after June 15, when daily deaths are down to zero.
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The models changed because the IHME took new factors into account, including the impact of new social distancing mandates. . .
However, the IHME model is not without its critics.
. . .epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”
“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health (said).
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The chief reason the IHME projections worry some experts, Etzioni said, is that “the fact that they overshot” — initially projecting up to 240,000 U.S. deaths, compared with fewer than 70,000 now — “will be used to suggest that the government response prevented an even greater catastrophe, when in fact the predictions were shaky in the first place.”
That could produce misplaced confidence in the effectiveness of the social distancing policies, which in turn could produce complacency about what might be needed to keep the epidemic from blowing up again.
Reliable predictability relies, of course, on sufficient and accurate data, which is true of any model. In the very early stages of pandemic data is limited and reporting protocols may not be standardized. As time passes, both factors tighten up and with more “past” on which to predict the future, models can be expected to increase in accuracy. Still, as we see, interjections of hidden deaths, such as those being uncovered in assisted living facilities upset projections. Additionally, political factors contribute to the suppression of counts, as when only positive corovavirus tests inform the confirmed death count and exclude diagnosed but untested cases, which can result when people die at home and more than 72 hours of proper post-mortem storage of corpses prevents testing.
Georgia has suffered under-reporting and undiscovered deaths; it has not recorded any probable Covid-19 deaths that have not reported positive coronavirus tests; its reporting overall suffers from a lag in data reaching the state Department of Public Health.
And the IHME protocol is not a tried and true methodology. To oversimplify, it overlays US data on graphs created from data gathered from Wuhan and European cities. At first, the US data wildly diverged. Then as lockdown and isolation took hold, the curves became more closely reflective. Ultimately, the data is entirely statistical and has no epidemiological basis. Critics complain that this causes projections to vary and swing a lot — not desirable in a tool supposed to be predictive.
Yet today’s update pretty well reflects the reality and also other models, as in the MIT SEIR model and another U. Washington one. However, the MIT model was predictive three weeks ago and the second U. Washington model was two weeks ago of what we see today.
Detailed charts from the IHME for Georgia can be viewed here.
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Georgia Department of Public Health Statistics
Updates Now Issued at Noon and 7:00 PM
3/3/2020 First day of reporting 3 cases, 0 deaths
3/12/2020 First death reported 1 death
Today’s Noon Report
COVID-19 Confirmed Cases: |
No. Cases (%) |
Total |
17669 (100%) |
Hospitalized |
3420 (19.36%) |
Deaths |
673 (3.81%)* |
* The death rate increased .06% since yesterday, while hospitalizations have decreased 0.52%. This continues a second week of increased death rate and accompanying decreased hospitalizations.
Today’s Coronavirus Testing Data
COVID-19 Testing By Lab Type: |
No. Pos. Tests |
Total Tests |
Commercial Lab |
16,720 |
69,355 |
GPH Lab |
949 |
4,853 |
Overall # of tests performed in GA: 74,208, increase of 6269 in one day
Overall percentage positive tests: 17,669, increase of 2000 positives in one day
COVID-19 Cases in Georgia by Race and Ethnicity*
Race |
Ethnicity |
Cases |
Deaths |
Black Or African American |
Hispanic/Latino |
121 |
2 |
Black Or African American |
Non-Hispanic/Latino |
3841 |
335 |
Black Or African American |
Unknown |
806 |
14 |
White |
Hispanic/Latino |
339 |
14 |
White |
Non-Hispanic/Latino |
2711 |
236 |
White |
Unknown |
476 |
9 |
American Indian/Native American |
Hispanic/Latino |
1 |
0 |
American Indian/Native American |
Non-Hispanic/Latino |
15 |
1 |
American Indian/Native American |
Unknown |
1 |
0 |
Asian |
Hispanic/Latino |
0 |
0 |
Asian |
Non-Hispanic/Latino |
138 |
8 |
Asian |
Unknown |
33 |
1 |
Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander |
Hispanic/Latino |
4 |
0 |
Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander |
Non-Hispanic/Latino |
7 |
1 |
Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander |
Unknown |
2 |
0 |
Other |
Hispanic/Latino |
214 |
7 |
Other |
Non-Hispanic/Latino |
57 |
1 |
Other |
Unknown |
51 |
2 |
Unknown |
Hispanic/Latino |
166 |
0 |
Unknown |
Non-Hispanic/Latino |
341 |
7 |
Unknown |
Unknown |
8345 |
35 |
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Discussion
No change in demographics by Age or Sex since yesterday. The oldest death in female aged 100, youngest in female aged 22. Male deaths far outstrip female deaths.
General: Of all the deaths only 10 had no underlying (comorbidities) health conditions. Five counties now reporting more than 1,000 deaths each, one of which reports over 2,000.
These maps are two means of portraying the burden of COVID-19 in Georgia. The cumulative case rate maps show which areas of Georgia have been the hardest hit by COVID-19 based on the total number of cases. The active case rate maps depict which areas of Georgia are currently facing the greatest burden of COVID-19 based on recently diagnosed cases and individuals who may still be infectious. (CLICK to view larger image)