Welcome to the April 2020 edition of BeloitDem’s congressional race ratings! All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them, except for NC-2 and NC-6, which are rated safe Democratic pickup. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Explanations for my rating changes are below the fold. As always, feel free to quibble (but please don’t litigate the Dem Presidential primary though the guise of which candidates you think would do better in which states, that’s not what this diary is about).
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Likely d |
lean D |
tossup |
lean r |
likely R |
CO
ME
NV
VA
|
MI
MN
NH
|
AZ
FL
NC
ME-02
NE-02
PA (Tilt D)
WI
|
GA
IA
|
OH
TX
NE-01
|
GOVERNORS
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
|
NC-GOV |
|
MT-GOV
NH-GOV
VT-GOV
|
MO-GOV
|
SENATE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
MN-SEN
NH-SEN
VA-SEN
|
CO-SEN
MI-SEN
|
AZ-SEN (Tilt D)
ME-SEN
NC-SEN
|
GA-SEN A
GA-SEN-B
IA-SEN
MT-SEN
|
AK-SEN
AL-SEN
KS-SEN
TX-SEN
|
HOUSE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
AZ-2
CA-21
CA-45
CA-49
CO-6
CT-5
FL-7
FL-27
FL-13
IL-6
KS-3
MN-3
NH-1
NJ-5
NV-4
OR-4
PA-6
PA-17
PA-8
VA-10
WI-3
|
AZ-1
CA-10
CA-25
CA-39
CA-48
FL-26
GA-6
IA-1
IA-2
IA-3
IL-14
MI-11
MI-8
MN-2
NJ-7
NJ-11
NV-3
NY-19
PA-7
TX-7
TX-23
TX-32
VA-2
WA-8
|
AZ-6
GA-7
ME-2
MO-2 (Tilt R)
NE-2
NJ-2 (Tilt R)
NJ-3 (Tilt D)
NM-2
NY-11 (Tilt D)
NY-22
OK-5
PA-1
SC-1
TX-24
UT-4 (Tilt D)
VA-7
|
IL-13
MI-3
MI-6
MN-7
NY-2
NY-24
PA-10
TX-10
TX-21
TX-22
WA-3
|
AK-AL
CA-22
CA-50
CO-3
FL-15
FL-16
FL-18
FL-25
IA-4
IN-5
IL-12
KS-2
KY-6
MI-7
MN-1
MN-8
MT-AL
NC-8
NY-1
NY-21
NY-27
OH-1
OH-10
OH-12
OH-14
PA-16
TX-2
TX-31
VA-5
WI-1
WI-6
WI-7
WI-8
|
Likely R to Lean R:
MT-SEN: Dems landed their top recruit here in Governor Steve Bullock, but Montana is still a very tough lift in federal races.
VT-GOV: We got a strong candidate here, but Phil Scott is still weirdly popular.
Lean D to Tossup / Tilt D:
PA-Pres: Ultimately I think the Philly suburbs and statewide population trends will bail us out, but the fundamentals still aren’t as good here as in Michigan and there has been some bad polling here that’s tough to ignore.
Tossup to Tossup / Tilt D:
AZ-SEN: Most polls at this point seem to be showing Mark Kelly up mid-single digits and running a few points ahead of the top of the ticket.
Lean D to Likely D:
KS-3: None of Davids’s opponents really impress me, and I’d image the Democratic nominee for president will probably be winning the district by low to mid single digits.
Likely D to Safe D:
CA-7: This one’s moved too far in our direction to be a realistic pickup opportunity for Republicans anymore outside of a wave.