Failure to anticipate, prepare for, and respond to the spread of the SARS-2-Cov Coronavirus has already led to more preventable American deaths than the twin GWB-shrug catastrophes of 9/11 (“Now watch this drive!”) and Hurricane Katrina (“Heckuva job, Brownie!”). If, as predicted, the US death toll (now 12,548) ultimately exceeds 80,000 then it will surpass the total number of Korean War and Vietnam War dead, catapulting the Trump Administration into an entirely new realm of perfidy and indifference to American life.
In spite of (because of) these undisputed facts, Republicans and supporters are working to establishing a preferred counterfactual scenario for the Coronavirus Pandemic. Since simulations of the pandemic death toll in the absence of social distancing measures — not to mention a simple multiplication of a raw 1% mortality against 40% of the US population — suggest 2 million dead, Trump and Fox News have adopted this benchmark with the explicit aim of declaring victory when the death toll ends up lower (even though most thanks in this scenario would be due to the more adroit response of Governors, local leaders, and what remains of the CDC, rather than Presidential-level leadership).
Democratic politicians and other Resistance leaders are pushing back on this narrative, insisting that 80,000 or more American dead (again, it’s 12,548 already) is an ignominious failure. However, there is a distressing lack of unanimity regarding what actually would constitute “success” from the counter-Trump perspective (please see previous post for more background). The answer is simple: South Korea.
South Korea, South Korea, South Korea
South Korea is the only appropriate benchmark for the relative success or failure of the US Coronavirus response.
- South Korea is a developed democratic society with a standard of living comparable to the US;
- South Korea reported their first domestic case of Covid-19 on the same day (Jan 19, 2020) as the United States;
- South Korea has a population 1/6 that of the US and is similarly urbanized;
- South Korea shows that an effective response beginning on Jan 19 could have held population mortality to 0.00037% (192 deaths out of 51.7 million population);
- Applying South Korea’s mortality rate to the United States, we would have suffered just 1220 deaths total from coronavirus, and the epidemic phase would be well past us already;
- South Korea’s “strong response” is kryptonite to Fox News, as shown by their now-famous live interview of Dr. Richi Desai.
Every death beyond 1223 — now totalling 11,325 — can be laid directly at the feet of Trump and his incompetent administration. This leads to my further suggestion: the Trump Coronavirus Death Count, which can be updated and reported daily:
Trump Coronavirus Death Count for April 7: 11,325
(US Coronavirus Deaths) – 6.37*(S. Korea Coronavirus Deaths)
For April 7, 2020: 12,548 – 6.37*192 = 11,325
The Trump Coronavirus Death Count serves to drive home the costs of Trump and Administration incompetence and indifference to the lives and suffering of Americans.
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