There has been some discussion of the impact of Biden choosing a sitting US Senator as his running mate, but I haven’t seen a post detailing the implications for control of the Senate depending on the state the Senator is from.
It is generally understood that a replacement would be appointed by the state’s governor until (in most cases) a special election is held. This is the general rule under the 17th Amendment (ratified in 1913) which established direct election of Senators by popular vote. However, several states have modified their rules under the provisions of the Amendment.
Here are the exceptions:
- Alaska, Oregon, and Wisconsin: no appointment by the governor; there must be a special election to fill any Senate vacancy.
- Oklahoma: the vacancy is filled by a special election, unless the vacancy occurs after March 1 in an even-numbered year and the term expires the following year. The governor is required to appoint the candidate elected in that year’s general election to fill the remainder of the term.
- Arizona and Hawaii: the governor must fill the vacancy with a person from the same party as the previous incumbent.
- Utah and Wyoming: the governor selects an interim senator from a list of three candidates proposed by the state central committee of the party of the previous incumbent.
So here is how this could play out for this election:
Catherine Cortez Masto—NV / Dem. Gov. / No change in party
Kamala Harris—CA / Dem. Gov. / No change in party
Tammy Duckworth—IL / Dem. Gov. / No change in party
Amy Klobuchar—MN / Dem. Gov. / No change in party
Kirsten Gillibrand—NY / Dem. Gov. / No change in party
Tammy Baldwin—WI / No Gov. Appt. / Depends on electing a new Dem.
Elizabeth Warren—MA / Rep. Gov. / Probable change in party
There’s no guarantee that we’ll take back the Senate. But if Biden picks Baldwin or Warren, that could make it that much more difficult.
For the record, I really like Harris and Warren. I’m not as familiar with Cortez Masto, but I have heard good things about her. I love Duckworth and Baldwin, personally, but they are not my top choices. I would be less enthused about Klobuchar or Gillibrand, but I’ll vote for Biden no matter what.