We know we SHOULD be able to vote by mail. We know the sabotage of the post office is a crime, probably impeachable, etc. We also know the post office is indispensable to social security recipients, rural Americans (you know Trump’s base), as well as people doing all sorts of state business (car tag renewal).
Sometimes us progressives get hung up on what we SHOULD be able to do. Fixing this mess will take longer than from now until Nov 3rd. And there are no sure outcomes with this SCOTUS.
So, we need to rapidly re-message. We need to change our GOTV strategy from “mail in your ballots” to
Vote early in-person at your local election office
Drop your ballots in special ballot boxes (local Dem politicians need to make these happen)
And the good old fashioned locate your polling place, do you need a ride to the polls election day?
But wait! There’s a raging pandemic out there. We can’t expect people to brave the pandemic to stand in line to vote. No, we SHOULDN’T HAVE TO… but we need to identify the areas its unreasonable to expect people to go out, and identify the areas with falling rates where precautions would make it more or less safe to do this ONE ACTIVITY. We forget that locking down is about mitigation — it’s about reducing opportunities for disease spread.
This is not what you want to hear, but here is what an extensive reliance on Vote By Mail will mean in states where it’s newly being implemented:
-If Biden has a safe lead at end of election day from traditional ballots, we are good. I don’t expect the West Coast or even Colorado or any reliably blue east coast states to have an issue here.
-If the race is within 1% or Biden is behind and is put over the top by mail-in ballots, Trump will challenge. Now, I don’t think he can stop a state like PA who has a Dem Gov and SOS (and R legislature) from not reporting its electoral votes, seating electors and being ratified by a hopefully Dem Senate. But a state like FL or GA, if mail-ins put Trump behind you can bet Kemp and DeSantis, and probably Doocey in AZ, will be lock-step in calling into question the results.
I think Dems made a mistake, with the best intentions, to push vote by mail this election. We may end up being saved by local races being upended by vote by mail challenges and the general chaos may hurt both parties enough that it gets shut down. What if Osoff is ahead in GA Senate, but Vote By Mail puts Perdue ahead? Are they going to invalidate results that benefit them?
Dems can still stem this tide and switch up messaging and win this thing.