In hindsight, the moment things started going sideways for Hillary in 2016 came with news that Trump had flipped Pinellas County, Florida—home to St. Petersburg and one of the biggest swing counties in the nation’s most powerful swing state.
One of the few bright spots out of Florida came in FL-13, covering most of the bluer parts of Pinellas, including almost all of St. Petersburg. Former governor Charlie Crist, a Republican-turned-Democrat, defeated incumbent David Jolly to end a 62-year GOP hold on the district. However, even though the district had been made significantly bluer after a court-ordered redistricting, Hillary only won it 49.6-46.4. By comparison, had it existed in 2012, Obama would have easily breezed past Romney here, 54.6-43.9.
Well, locally based pollster St. Pete Polls has uncovered evidence that suggests Biden has more than made up lost ground in Pinellas. It conducted a poll in FL-13 that, not surprisingly, finds Crist well on his way to a third term. He has almost 55 percent support to almost 39 percent for Trump-worshiping Republican Anna Paulina Luna.
That came as no surprise. Crist is an institution in St. Pete, and he will likely hold this seat for as long as he wants it. But the presidential numbers are the real stunner. Biden is beating Trump like a rented mule in this district, 54-40. That’s way, way ahead of Hillary’s pace. And this was taken after the Republican National Convention to boot.
Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report was quick to point out the importance of these numbers.
Specifically, FL-13 accounts for almost three-fourths of Pinellas’ population.
“Very good result” would be an understatement. If Biden wins Pinellas by around 10, it will almost certainly be enough to carry Florida. And as we all know, if Biden carries Florida, it will effectively slam the door on Trump’s tiny hands.
Since 1992, Pinellas County has voted for the winning candidate in every presidential election but one, when it voted for Al Gore in 2000. Moreover, 2016 was the first election since then that it hadn't gone with the winner of the national popular vote. But the margin has only been greater than five points twice in that time—1996 and 2008. So if Biden is potentially up 10 here, it’s a very good sign for us in Florida.
It cannot be stated enough—this was a poll taken after the GOP convention, in a district making up three-fourths of one of the most powerful swing counties in the nation. It cannot be put more succinctly enough. Trump. Got. No. Bounce.