All good people are afraid of the ability of the president to rtfk this election.
With this in mind, I performed a little analysis based on the following assumptions:
1. It will be very hard to rtfk the election returns in a state where Biden is up by 10 points or more, and
2. It will be very hard to rtfk the election returns in a state that has a Democratic Secretary of State. Secretaries of State control the election processes in their respective states. Democratic Secretaries of State may be assumed to be unsympathetic with Republican attempts to rtfk their elections.
To measure current polling advantages, I am using the aggregated data compiled on 538.com.
In states with current polling margins greater than 10 points:
Democratic states — 200 Electoral Votes
Republican states — 125 EVs
All other states are regarded as “swing states”
In swing states with Democratic Secretaries of State — 99 EVs
In swing states with Republican Secretaries of State — 114 EVs
Total:
Democratic EVs — 299
Republican EVs — 239
This assumes that Democrats sweep the states in which Democrats hold the SOS seat — they currently lead in the polls in all those states. It also assumes that Republicans either win or rtfk all the states in which Republicans hold the SOS seat — Democrats currently lead in two of those states — Florida (by a slim margin) and Nevada (by a larger margin).
Obviously, this proves nothing, especially if Trump just outright takes over the post office or declares martial law or some massive, glaringly corrupt and fraudulent gesture like that. But when it comes to dealing with complicit allies behind the scenes, there doesn’t seem a lot of room for maneuvering.
These are the states where polls are within 10 points, along with the names and parties of their respective Secretaries of State:
State |
EV |
Secretary of State |
Party |
Arizona |
11 |
Katie Hobbs |
D |
Colorado |
9 |
Jena Griswold |
D |
Maine |
4 |
Matthew Dunlap |
D |
Michigan |
16 |
Jocelyn Benson |
D |
Minnesota |
10 |
Steve Simon |
D |
New Hampshire |
4 |
Bill Gardner |
D |
North Carolina |
15 |
Elaine Marshall |
D |
Pennsylvania |
20 |
Kathy Boockvar |
D |
Wisconsin |
10 |
Doug LaFollette |
D |
Florida |
29 |
Laurel Lee |
R |
Georgia |
16 |
Brad Raffensperger |
R |
Iowa |
6 |
Paul Pate |
R |
Nebraska - 2 |
1 |
Robert Evnen |
R |
Nevada |
6 |
Barbara Cegavske |
R |
Ohio |
18 |
Frank LaRose |
R |
Texas |
38 |
Ruth Hughs |
R |
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Let’s keep an eye on these guys….
AND VOTE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!