Welcome to the Spring 2021 edition of BeloitDem’s 2022 congressional race ratings! (I think I’m moving to quarterly on this project until we start actually having House diststricts). All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them. All single-party general elections not listed are considered safe for the incumbent. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Unformatted seats represent seats with no clear predecessor district. Explanations for changes below the fold As always, feel free to quibble.
GOVERNORS
CO-GOV
CT-GOV
IL-GOV
OR-GOV
MD-GOV
NJ-GOV
NM-GOV
RI-GOV
VA-GOV
ME-GOV
MN-GOV
MI-GOV
NV-GOV
AZ-GOV
GA-GOV
KS-GOV
PA-GOV
WI-GOV
NH-GOV
MA-GOV
FL-GOV
IA-GOV
OH-GOV
SC-GOV
TX-GOV
VT-GOV
SENATE
CO-SEN
NV-SEN
AZ-SEN
GA-SEN
NH-SEN
PA-SEN
WI-SEN
NC-SEN
FL-SEN
IA-SEN
OH-SEN
MO-SEN
Likely Murkowski: AK-SEN
Note on house ratings: States will be added to the House rating list on a case by case basis. Intially, I’m just rating at large seats and seats where the range of possible redistricting results is narrow enough to allow a reasonable approximation of a rating. A table of which states have been rated and which states haven’t is below the rating table.
HOUSE
NH-1
NH-2
NV-3
NV-4
ME-2
AK-AL
Safe R to Likely R:
MO-SEN: Putting this on the board solely because of Grietens, anyone else wins the nom it does back to Safe R. Even with Grietens Missouri is probably too red at this point. Lean R to Tossup:
PA-SEN: Feeling a bit less pessimistic about the general midterm environment than I was in December.
WI-SEN: See above
Unrated to Safe D:
MA-(All House): So this is a fun thread.