Emerson College (where my oldest kid goes—yea!) was an early indicator that the CA-recall was looking competitive. Their first 3 polls had the margin for KEEP at 2-5 pts. So when they drop a 60-40 lead the day before E-Day, it’s significant.
emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/…
And it looks like even an absolute E-day turnout tsunami by the republicans won’t be nearly good enough:
Voters who said they have already voted are breaking against the recall at 64% with 36% in favor of recall. However, voters who were still planning to vote (on election day) were only slightly opposed to the recall, 52% to 46%.
That breaks down roughly to ¾ who have voted to ¼ yet to vote. But even among those yet to vote “KEEP” leads.
Emerson College has steadily risen in the poll ratings and is currently rated A-. I expect they are close to the final result here.