All the analysts say that this Indiana Senate seat is Safe/Solid Republican.
And as of June 30, Republican Senator Todd Young had $6.86 million cash on hand, while Tom McDermott had a paltry $166,000. So it sure doesn’t seem likely that McDermott would defeat Young, does it?
But the only poll of this race shows Young at only 45% and McDermott at 42%, so McDemott is down just 3% and Young is significantly below 50%. However, that poll was conducted by a B- rated Democratic polling firm a month ago on behalf of the McDermott campaign. Still, it might be accurate, and if so, this might actually be a real race.
The Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision on abortion has changed everything and it might even be changing the dynamics in a state like Indiana, energizing tens of thousands of young women to vote Democratic. Add to that energy the amazing success of the Biden Administration in passing four major bills that help ordinary Americans, the blatant immorality and illegality of Donald Trump fomenting an insurrection and stealing classified documents from the government, and the ghastly Uvalde gun massacre that showed the staggering limitations of current gun laws.
Though Todd Young is a “moderate” Republican, he voted with Trump 82% of the time, including voting against creating an independent commission to investigate the 2021 United States Capitol attack. But that has not been enough for Trump: Young is one of the few Republican incumbent Senators not endorsed by Trump. So maybe some of the Trump cult members are less likely to vote.
IndyStar: 2022 election: Sen. Todd Young focuses on bills rather than talk show soundbites
… Young's bipartisan bona fides only go so far. When so few bills get passed in D.C., votes are often the best way to decipher what someone's true impact is. He has voted against most of Biden's major initiatives including the Inflation Reduction Act, his infrastructure bill and the American Rescue Plan, and against confirming Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson. He also praised the overturning of Roe v. Wade, criticized Biden's decision to forgive student loans and voted to kill a proposal to cap the price of insulin to $35 a month for many patients. …
Democrat Tom McDermott, mayor of Hammond, is pro-choice, supports basic gun control, supports reducing medical costs, is pro-education, and supports clean energy, voter rights, campaign reform, electoral reform, and legalizing cannabis.
A few months ago, it wasn’t clear that Democrats would be able to keep their bare 50-seat majority in the Senate and all the analysts were saying it was very unlikely. Now it seems likely that Democrats will net a pick up of a few seats in places like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Ohio and might even pick up seats in North Carolina, Florida, and maybe a few others. Perhaps Democrats will even pick up this seat in Indiana.
WIBC: Downs: Indiana Senate Race May Be Closer Than Many May Think
… Political scientist Andy Downs, professor emeritus of the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Purdue University-Fort Wayne, believes Indiana’s red-state status will ring true in most races this fall, but that it will not be as cut and dry as many might think. Especially in the Senate race. …
… “(McDermott is) a proven vote getter. He can’t be ignored,” he added. “Todd Young, who is a pretty conservative member of Congress, he has said some things, done some things, that might turn off some of the more further right voters of the Republican Party.”
However, Downs believes that far right-leaning Republicans would rather not vote in the Senate race at all if they choose not to vote for Young. ...
Tom McDermott web site