Some are even predicting a 1964-style blowout. Frankly, I don’t see it.
The biggest problem is the economy. Jobs are still being created, but slowing down. Many economists are still predicting a recession next year. That’s the worst possible timing for Biden of course.
And if there is no recession, we are likely to see rising gas prices. Oil is now at $85.00 a barrel and climbing. That means gas prices are soon to follow. And they are already elevated, particularly for this time of year. Average gas prices of over $4.00 a gallon could be fatal to Biden.
Look at the polls: Biden is a tiny 0.8% ahead of Trump on RCP as I speak. The most recent individual poll from YouGov has Trump 2 points ahead of him.
Trump overperformed his polling in 2020 by several points. Can we assume that won’t happen next year?
As for Trump’s trials, I have a gut feeling he will be successful in delay, delay, and delay. There could be a possibility that they don’t even happen at all next year.
I’m also hearing more online chatter about emerging Biden “scandals”. Sure, it’s probably BS, but even if there’s a whiff of scandal, the GOP will be able to keep these fake scandals alive.
My predictions regarding GOP performance last year were wrong. There was no red wave. I hope I’m wrong this time too.