Sure, ignore them because it’s early, or for any number of statistical malfunctions. But ignore them for another reason as well: They’re not telling us what we need to know — which is what the election looks like in just five (maybe six) states.
The eejit drew an inside straight in 2016 in three states. Had we elected a President by national popular vote, he would have lost. He lost those same three states — Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — in 2020, as well as Georgia and Arizona. Since the 2016 Presidential election, Democrats have won statewide elections in all five states, flipping previously Republican seats (Hobbs, Kelly & Sinema in Arizona; Evers in Wisconsin; Whitmer in Michigan; Fetterman in Pennsylvania; Warnock & Ossoff in Georgia). Among Governors and US Senators, there are exactly two in those states: Ron Johnson in Wisconsin and Brian Kemp in Georgia. (Kyrsten Sinema: I know, I know).
The GOP is in disarray in Michigan and Arizona, and trending the wrong way in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. That leaves only Georgia’s Republicans in relatively good position going into 2024. TFG needs to once more win three of those states in 2024 and lose none of the states he carried in 2020. Can he do it? I guess, maybe; but the odds are no better than they were in 2020, and I’d argue they’re worse, considering how statewide voting has gone since then.
Yes, the vote totals were close in each state. But then factor in Dobbs, which has a strong potential to boost Biden’s vote total. And I’m not even considering Bone Spurs’ legal turmoil and campaign money woes. You can bet that Democratic funds will pour in to those five states early and often.
Then there is one more wild card that might help the incumbent: North Carolina, which has its own special craziness coming this fall. The Tar Heel State was Biden’s closest loss. Were the Democrat to win it this fall, His Orangeness would need to win four of the other five. And if Biden wins North Carolina, his chances of losing Michigan and Pennsylvania are vanishingly small. I expect Biden’s campaign will be going on the offensive here.
We can argue whether or not I/P puts Michigan in play (personally, I think not); but right now we are looking at a broke opponent in legal trouble who, while slipping in mental acuity, is surrounding himself with the usual grifters, and playing defense in perhaps six critical states.
TL;DR — Follow the North Carolina polling, particularly beginning in September. Donate and GOTV in the meantime.