In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried 20 states and DC. These have 231 electoral votes under the rules that will prevail this year. In 2020, Biden carried those, 5 more states, and another CD. Those extras have 72 electoral votes this year. Trump carried 25 states and a CD in both elections. Those total 235 electoral votes this year.
If you assume that Biden will carry everything that Ms. Clinton did, he has to get 39 of the extra 72 EV in order to win. Those are:
AZ 11
GA 16
MI 15
NE (2nd CD) 01
PA 19
WI 10
Of the first polls to close, if Biden gets PA and GA, he’ll need any other state of the extras he carried in 2020. (The Omaha CD in Nebraska wouldn’t be enough.) If Trump carries a state that Ms. Clinton won, it’ll be a nail-biter all night. If Biden wins NC, he’ll need 2 of the states in the 5 that swung his way; If he carries FL, he will need only one.
(FL 30 — NC 16)
Trump * 2
AL — 09
AK — 03
AR — 06
FL — 30
ID — 04
IN — 11
IA — 06
KS — 06
KY — 08
LA — 08
ME (CD) 01
MS — 06
MO — 10
MT — 04
NE — 04
NC — 16
ND — 03
OH — 17
OK — 07
SC — 09
SD — 03
TN — 11
TX — 40
UT — 06
WV — 04
WY — 03
___
235
HRC
CA — 54
CO — 10
CT — 07
DE — 03
DC — 03
HI — 04
IL — 19
ME — 03
MD — 10
MA — 11
MN - 10
NV — 06
NH — 04
NJ — 14
NM — 05
NY — 28
OR - 08
RI — 04
VT — 03
VA — 13
WA — 12
____
231
B-C
AZ — 11
GA — 16
MI — 15
NE (CD) 01
PA — 19
WI — 10
___
72