I’d like to add a bit of a different perspective to the primary election results in Waukesha County Wisconsin this Tuesday. Main takeaway: Trump received only about 78% of the Republican vote in the county. That should scare the hell out of the Trump campaign.
First of all, turnout was relatively low in my small, MAGA conservative community — about 40% in a community that typically gets 50-80% turnout. Nasty weather may have played a factor, not only here but in other parts of Wisconsin where there was a winter storm. Turnout in Waukesha County in general was only 34%, incredibly low for this area, where well over 80% of voters turn out for general elections.
Second, and perhaps more importantly, was the fact that it was local issues and offices that drove whatever turnout there was. There was a school district referendum to raise the tax levy to support several infrastructure projects. In Wisconsin, school districts cannot raise the tax rate unless it is approved by a referendum. In conservative communities like mine, these referenda fire up the conservative voters and typically go down in flames. As did this referendum. Sad, but true.
There was also a heated contest for our governing Board, which drove turnout. But, sadly, most voters are unaware of the issues and unfamiliar with the candidates in these races and don’t bother to vote.
In short, because the presidential nominees are already decided, the main reasons people around here voted were the school referendum and the Board race. The presidential primary just happened to be on the same ballot.
And of the Republicans who voted in that primary, only about 78% voted for Trump. That means that 22% of Republican primary voters voted for one of the other candidates that were still on the ballot, even though they’ve all dropped out. Roughly 22% of voters in a very Republican, conservative community rejected Trump. This percent held true in the rest of Waukesha County as well. The numbers for Biden among Dems were better here and in the rest of Waukesha County — about 90%, with most people who didn’t vote for him voting “Uninstructed,” not voting for or writing in another candidate.
This is Waukesha County, folks, one of the three WOW Counties in southeastern Wisconsin that have in recent decades voted heavily Republican, with a population big enough to swing a state election.
And Trump received less than 80% of Republican votes; and over 20% of them voted for somebody else. And the turnout was...meh...
The question is what will these voters do in November. Will they vote for Biden or a third party candidate for president? Hold their noses and vote for Trump anyway? Or will they not vote at all in the presidential race? Over 66% of Waukesha County voters didn’t bother to vote at all this week. Is it because it really didn’t matter if they voted in the presidential primary? Or is there a lack of enthusiasm among the Republican faithful?
Add in that heavily populated eastern Waukesha County is turning purple, with Democrats getting more and more votes in every election.
If 22% of Waukesha County Republican voters don’t vote for Trump in November, he will lose Wisconsin. Period. If even 10% of Waukesha County Republican voters don’t vote for Trump in November, he will lose Wisconsin. Period.
I am going to hang onto that hopeful thought until November.