Most of us would agree it was a lousy week for Kerry. So, how is that showing up in the polls? Newsweek/MSNBC just came out with a poll showing Bush up 45 to 43, tied 48 apiece without Nader. Polling was done Thursday and Friday. To my mind, that is very encouraging. Absent a very significant event, I just don't see how things get better for Bush than the last couple of days. In about ten days, we've had Madrid, "foreign leaders," $10m+ in Kerry-bashing, "voted for and against," shock and awe anniversary, and seemingly imminent capture of Zawahari. And, what does Bush have to show for it? A dead heat, maybe a very slight lead.
Looking at poll of polls data, Newsweek/MSNBC has been pretty close to the overall trend line, so this is probably a good data point. The CBS poll a few days ago had a Bush five point lead, so maybe things are a bit worse. But, in my mind, if the trend over the next week or so shows anything less than a five point lead for Bush, I'm happy. If it looks like a two point lead, I'm very happy.
I am by no means saying that Kerry is a clear favorite. I still think this thing ends up very close to 49/49. But, I have to regard this poll as very good news.