Skip to main content

Research 2000 has polled a series of matchups between the two strongest potential Republican candidates (including incumbent Sen. Jim Bunning and Secretary of State Trey Grayson) and the four strongest potential Democratic candidates (Rep. Ben Chandler, Attorney General Jack Conway, State Auditor Crit Luallen, and Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo).

The poll results indicate that despite wildly diverging favorabilities for each candidate, every matchup yields a four-point margin at the most, regardless of who the candidates are. Even stranger, the least popular candidate in the field by favorability - Senator Bunning - actually has the strongest numbers in head-to-head polls.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 1/29-2/2. Registered voters. MoE 4%. (No trend lines)

Jim Bunning (R) 45
Ben Chandler (D) 42

Jim Bunning (R) 46
Jack Conway (D) 42

Jim Bunning (R) 45
Crit Luallen (D) 41

Jim Bunning (R) 46
Daniel Mongiardo (D) 42


Trey Grayson (R) 42
Ben Chandler (D) 42

Trey Grayson (R) 42
Jack Conway (D) 41

Trey Grayson (R) 42
Crit Luallen (D) 42

Trey Grayson (R) 43
Daniel Mongiardo (D) 42

Bunning's favorability is lower than that of President Obama, who lost Kentucky by 19 points in November 2008 - Obama gets a 47/44 favorable/unfavorable rating, while Bunning is mired at 41/47. He's the only person in the field with negative favorability marks.

So why is Bunning still leading? Two reasons;

  1. name recognition, and
  1. the state's general conservative bent.

His numbers can hardly be called "strong"; 45% reelect for a two-term incumbent is very weak, in fact. Still, perhaps due to far superior name recognition, they're better than Grayson's.

Mongiardo is the only announced Democratic candidate so far. His favorability is decent at 50/40; Democrats like him (although more Dems dislike him than any of the other D candidates), independents generally like him pretty well, Republicans hate him.

Chandler (who has shown no inclination to run) has excellent favorables, but surprisingly he doesn't do appreciably better than anyone else in head-to-head matchups. Perhaps the conventional wisdom that a race with Chandler in it would be his to lose, was mistaken.

Conway is the most likely to run after Mongiardo (who is already in). He starts with stron favorables (at 48/27, better than Mongiardo's), although he's the least well-known of all the Democratic candidates.

Grayson starts as the candidate with the lowest name recognition of all, but he is still competitive in polling. He's the beneficiary of both generic Republican strength in Kentucky, and the fact that those who do know Grayson seem to like him (39/18 favorables).

The fact that he does well even with lower name recognition indicates that he may well be the stronger general-election candidate than Bunning.

As for the Democrats in the race, they all start as highly competitive, and any of them appears poised to make a terrific race out of this.

KENTUCKY POLL RESULTS – FEBRUARY 2009  

The Research 2000 Kentucky Poll was conducted from February 2 through February 4, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  288 (48%)
Women                312 (52%)

Democrats            282 (47%)
Republicans          234 (39%)
Other                 84 (14%)

18-29                102 (17%)
30-44                191 (32%)
45-59                198 (33%)
60+                  109 (18%)

White                516 (86%)
Black                 65 (11%)
Other                 19 (3%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jim Bunning? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 16%         25%         24%         23%         12%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 41%         47%         12%

MEN                 45%         44%         11%
WOMEN               37%         50%         13%

DEMOCRATS           24%         65%         11%
REPUBLICANS         62%         26%         12%
INDEPENDENTS        39%         45%         16%

18-29               37%         50%         13%
30-44               40%         48%         12%
45-59               42%         46%         12%
60+                 45%         44%         11%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Trey Grayson? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 12%         27%         11%          7%         43%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 39%         18%         43%

MEN                 41%         17%         42%
WOMEN               37%         19%         44%

DEMOCRATS           29%         24%         47%
REPUBLICANS         49%         12%         39%
INDEPENDENTS        45%         15%         40%

18-29               37%         19%         44%
30-44               39%         18%         43%
45-59               40%         18%         42%
60+                 40%         17%         43%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ben Chandler? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 19%         33%         17%         11%         20%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 52%         28%         20%

MEN                 49%         32%         19%
WOMEN               55%         24%         21%

DEMOCRATS           67%         16%         17%
REPUBLICANS         34%         45%         21%
INDEPENDENTS        53%         22%         25%

18-29               54%         26%         20%
30-44               53%         27%         20%
45-59               52%         29%         19%
60+                 49%         31%         20%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Crit Luallen? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 20%         33%         14%         11%         22%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 53%         25%         22%

MEN                 49%         30%         21%
WOMEN               57%         20%         23%

DEMOCRATS           69%         12%         19%
REPUBLICANS         33%         43%         24%
INDEPENDENTS        56%         19%         25%

18-29               56%         22%         22%
30-44               54%         24%         22%
45-59               53%         26%         21%
60+                 49%         29%         22%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Daniel Mongiardo? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 21%         29%         22%         18%         10%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 50%         40%         10%

MEN                 47%         44%          9%
WOMEN               53%         36%         11%

DEMOCRATS           67%         28%          5%
REPUBLICANS         30%         57%         13%
INDEPENDENTS        48%         34%         18%

18-29               53%         37%         10%
30-44               51%         39%         10%
45-59               50%         42%          8%
60+                 46%         43%         11%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jack Conway? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 17%         31%         16%         11%         25%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 48%         27%         25%

MEN                 44%         31%         25%
WOMEN               52%         23%         25%

DEMOCRATS           65%         11%         24%
REPUBLICANS         26%         47%         27%
INDEPENDENTS        52%         23%         25%

18-29               51%         22%         27%
30-44               49%         26%         25%
45-59               49%         28%         23%
60+                 43%         32%          25


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Ben Chandler the Democrat and Jim Bunning the Republican?

                   BUNNING     CHANDLER    UNDECIDED  

ALL                 45%         42%         13%

MEN                 51%         39%         10%
WOMEN               39%         45%         16%

DEMOCRATS           14%         74%         12%
REPUBLICANS         83%          5%         12%
INDEPENDENTS        43%         40%         17%

WHITE               52%         37%         11%
BLACK                4%         76%         20%
OTHER                5%         67%         28%

18-29               41%         45%         14%
30-44               43%         44%         13%
45-59               47%         41%         12%
60+                 49%         38%         13%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Crit Luallen the Democrat and Jim Bunning the Republican?

                   BUNNING     LUALLEN     UNDECIDED  

ALL                 45%         41%         14%

MEN                 52%         36%         12%
WOMEN               38%         46%         16%

DEMOCRATS           14%         73%         13%
REPUBLICANS         83%          5%         12%
INDEPENDENTS        43%         39%         18%

WHITE               52%         36%         12%
BLACK                4%         75%         21%
OTHER                5%         68%         27%

18-29               41%         44%         15%
30-44               43%         43%         14%
45-59               47%         40%         13%
60+                 49%         37%         14%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Daniel Mongiardo the Democrat and Jim Bunning the Republican?

                   BUNNING     MONGIARDO   UNDECIDED  

ALL                 46%         42%         12%

MEN                 51%         38%         11%
WOMEN               41%         46%         13%

DEMOCRATS           14%         75%         11%
REPUBLICANS         85%          5%         10%
INDEPENDENTS        44%         38%         18%

WHITE               53%         36%         11%
BLACK                4%         77%         19%
OTHER                5%         67%         28%

18-29               41%         45%         14%
30-44               44%         44%         12%
45-59               48%         42%         10%
60+                 51%         37%         12%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Jack Conway the Democrat and Jim Bunning the Republican?

                   BUNNING     CONWAY      UNDECIDED  

ALL                 46%         42%         12%

MEN                 52%         38%         10%
WOMEN               40%         46%         14%

DEMOCRATS           14%         75%         11%
REPUBLICANS         85%          5%         10%
INDEPENDENTS        44%         38%         18%

WHITE               53%         37%         10%
BLACK                4%         75%         21%
OTHER                5%         68%         27%

18-29               41%         44%         15%
30-44               44%         44%         12%
45-59               48%         41%         11%
60+                 51%         38%         11%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Ben Chandler the Democrat and Trey Grayson the Republican?

                   GRAYSON     CHANDLER    UNDECIDED  

ALL                 42%         42%         16%

MEN                 47%         39%         14%
WOMEN               37%         45%         18%

DEMOCRATS           10%         76%         14%
REPUBLICANS         82%          5%         13%
INDEPENDENTS        40%         35%         25%

WHITE               48%         37%         15%
BLACK                3%         76%         21%
OTHER                3%         66%         31%

18-29               36%         47%         17%
30-44               38%         43%         19%
45-59               45%         41%         14%
60+                 49%         38%         13%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Crit Luallen the Democrat and Trey Grayson the Republican?

                   GRAYSON     LUALLEN     UNDECIDED  

ALL                 42%         42%         16%

MEN                 48%         38%         14%
WOMEN               36%         46%         18%

DEMOCRATS           10%         75%         15%
REPUBLICANS         82%          5%         13%
INDEPENDENTS        40%         37%         23%

WHITE               48%         37%         15%
BLACK                3%         75%         22%
OTHER                4%         65%         31%

18-29               36%         47%         17%
30-44               39%         43%         18%
45-59               45%         41%         14%
60+                 49%         38%         13%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Daniel Mongiardo the Democrat and Trey Grayson the Republican?

                   GRAYSON     MONGIARDO   UNDECIDED  

ALL                 43%         42%         15%

MEN                 47%         40%         13%
WOMEN               39%         44%         17%

DEMOCRATS           11%         75%         14%
REPUBLICANS         82%          5%         13%
INDEPENDENTS        42%         36%         22%

WHITE               50%         37%         13%
BLACK                3%         75%         22%
OTHER                4%         66%         30%

18-29               36%         46%         18%
30-44               40%         43%         17%
45-59               46%         41%         13%
60+                 50%         38%         12%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Jack Conway the Democrat and Trey Grayson the Republican?

                   GRAYSON     CONWAY      UNDECIDED  

ALL                 42%         41%         17%

MEN                 46%         39%         15%
WOMEN               38%         43%         19%

DEMOCRATS           10%         73%         17%
REPUBLICANS         81%          5%         14%
INDEPENDENTS        40%         36%         24%

WHITE               49%         36%         15%
BLACK                3%         73%         24%
OTHER                4%         65%         31%

18-29               36%         44%         20%
30-44               39%         42%         19%
45-59               45%         40%         15%
60+                 49%         38%         13%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 21%         26%         26%         18%          9%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 47%         44%          9%

MEN                 44%         48%          8%
WOMEN               50%         40%         10%

DEMOCRATS           72%         18%         10%
REPUBLICANS         20%         74%          6%
INDEPENDENTS        40%         48%         12%

18-29               51%         39%         10%
30-44               49%         42%          9%
45-59               45%         46%          9%
60+                 43%         48%          9%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Feb 05, 2009 at 12:11 PM PST.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site