Although not covered in the mainstream news, in the last few weeks there have been a number of developments in Iran. The government subsidies on food, gasoline and other items have been scheduled to be removed. There is a battle over how the subsidy money should be spent and who should control it. Lastly, Ahmadinejad's government has turned in a budget based on oil at $60 a barrel, and is increasing the amount of bonds they will sell to raise money to 9.5 B Euros, increasing previous levels allowed.
There also remains a smoldering tension that may flare up on February 11th (Official Anniversary of the Revolution)as many YouTube videos are coming out in a steady stream leading to 22 Bahman (Feb 11th).
No one really knows what is going to happen, but many are watching with anticipation.
The repeal of subsidies will definitely cause prices to go up pretty sharply for a number of products and food. The government did not do this because they wanted to, they are doing it because they must. They simply cannot afford the money spent subsidizing people's livelihood, difficult as that will be for many. In a country with an admitted unemployment rate of 11% and a real unemployment rate more around 20%, this will cause great strain. There may be many more joining protesters in the streets. However, beware the "relative deprivation thesis" that economic collapse necessarily is good for the Green Movement. See Mohammad Khiabani's excellent piece here: 1/24/10. This move on subsidies is one reason the US and other Western powers should not move on sanctions. Let this action stand on its' own to be evaluated without getting mixed up in Iranian Nationalist Politics.
The money saved on repealing subsidies is the the subject of a struggle as well. Ahmadinejad's administration is seeking to gain as much control as possible on how the money will be spent, as opposed to the Majlis. This is putting Ahmadinejad in conflict with the powerful Speaker of the Majlis, Ali Larijani and other MPs. See Reuters here: 1/3/10. In addition, Ahmadinejad's budget, which relies on $60 a barrel oil will certainly raise questions. Here's a quick one--what happens to the price of oil when there is conflict? Ahmadinejad and the Hard-Liners have been looking for a fight for some time now--let's not give it to them. See budget coverage here: NPR 1/24/10.
Lastly, the Green/Reform Movement has been relatively quiet since the Ashura protests of December 26th. Things look like they might heat up again on February 11th as there seems to be a push for demonstations on this anniversary of the Revolution in Tehran and in cities around the world. All you need to do is put "22 Bahman" into YouTube or Google and you'll see it. I've linked on video which is splicing in the bulk of a protest anthem that emerged out of the summer's protests. I will provide the lyrics in Pinglish with English translation. The whole song is here, but it was not used in its' entirety in the video I linked. Pretty inspiring stuff.
An khas o khaashak toee You are mean little thorns
Paast tar az khaak toee You are lower than dirt
Shoor manam I am passion and fervor
Noor manam I am light
Asheghe ranjoor manam I am afflicted with love
Zoor toee You are Oppression
Koor toee You are Blind
Haleye ninoor toee Your Halo has no light
Dalir bibuk manam I am the Valiant
Maleke in khak manam This is my Land
In the first video I saw using this song in the fall, the first two lines were coupled with Basijis beating people in the street. The second set of lines were coupled with protesters. The third set was coupled with images of Ahmadinejad and Khamenei. The last set was once again protesters.
There is no way to know how this will turn out, but forces are in motion. I had the priviledge of meeting with an Iranian labor leader last week, and I am in the process of trying to digest the information he conveyed. I will be writing more significantly on that and other items next week.