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Summary:
Illinois has 19 representatives, 12 Democrats and 7 Republicans.  
Indiana has 9 representatives: 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans.
Iowa has 5 representatives: 3 Democrats and 2 Republicans.  
Kansas has 4 representatives: 1 Democrat and 3 Republicans.

Vulnerable are
  IL-06 (R)
  IL-10 (R)
  IL-11 (D)
  IL-14 (D)
  IN-02 (D)
  IN-08 (D)
  IN-09 (D)
  IA-03 (D)
  KS-04 now open but was (R)

Sources:
House vote in 2008 from Wikipedia
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
FEC
and Steve Singiser's diaries here on daily Kos (which I checked for about a month).
=========================================================================
District: IL-01
Location Partly the south side of Chicago, partly suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 34
Representative Bobby Rush (D)
VoteView rank 50.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin 86-14 over Antoine Members
2006 margin 84-16
2004 margin 85-15
Obama margin 87-13
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Current opponents Ray Wardingley
Demographics More Blacks than any other district (65.3%), 13th most Democratic, per Cook PVI
Assessment Safe. Rush has $141K COH. No info on Wardingley

District: IL-02
Location South side of Chicago and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 36
Representative Jesse Jackson Jr (D)  
VoteView rank  14
First elected  1995
2008 margin 89-11 over Anthony Williams
2006 margin 85-12
2004 margin 88-12
Obama margin 90-10
Bush margin 2004 16-84
Current opponents  Isaac Hayes (no, not THE Isaac Hayes)
Demographics 4th most Blacks (62%), 13th most Democratic (tied with the IL-01)
Assessment Safe. Jackson has $350K COH, Hayes has little.

District: IL-03  
Location Southwestern Chicago  map
Cook PVI  D + 11
Representative Dan Lipinski (D)  
VoteView rank 192.5
First elected 2004
2008 margin 73-21 over Michael Hawkins
2006 margin 77-23
2004 margin 73-25
Obama margin 64-35
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Current opponents Michael Bendas
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  Safe.  Lipinski has half a million COH, Bendas has little.

District: IL-04  
Location Possibly the oddest shaped district in the USA (and that's saying something!) this one...looks like an ordinary district with a big piece missing in the middle.  It includes the Latino districts on the north side, wanders west, has a string-wide bit going south, and then includes the Latino districts on the south side. map.
Cook PVI D + 32
Representative Luis Gutierrez (D)
VoteView rank 45
First elected  1992
2008 margin 81-11 over Daniel Cunningham
2006 margin 86-14
2004 margin 84-12
Obama margin 85-13
Bush margin 2004 21-79
Current opponents No Republican, but there is a Green candidate
Demographics 5th most Latinos (74.5%) (3 of the 4 higher are in TX), 5th fewest veterans (4.3%)
Assessment  No opponent

District: IL-05  
Location North side of Chicago,  from the lake west to O'Hare  map
Cook PVI  D + 19
Representative Mike Quigley  
First elected  2009
VoteView rank NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 73-26
Bush margin 2004 67-33
Current opponents David Ratowitz (R) and a Green candidate
Demographics 23rd fewest veterans (6.7%)
Assessment Safe.  Quigley has $300K COH, Ratowitz has little.

District: IL-06
Location Western suburbs of Chicago   map
Cook PVI  Even
Representative Peter Roskam (R)
VoteView rank 381
First elected  2006
2008 margin 58-42 over Jill Morgenthaler
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Current opponents Ben Lowe
Demographics 12th fewest people in poverty (4.3%), 30th highest median income ($63K)
Assessment This is almost a swing district, but Roskam has over $1 million COH, while Lowe has little.  Plus Roskam is now the incumbent.  Looks safe for Roskam.

District: IL-07  
Location Chicago's Loop and nearby map
Cook PVI D + 35
Representative Danny Davis (D)
VoteView rank 20.5
First elected  1996
2008 margin 85-15 over Steve Miller
2006 margin 87-13
2004 margin 86-14
Obama margin 88-12
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Current opponents Mark Weiman
Demographics 16th most Blacks (61.6%), 20th most people in poverty (24%) (but median income is moderate - $40K)
Assessment Safe. Davis has $366K COH, no info on Weiman.

District: IL-08  
Location North of Chicago to the WI border, including Schaumburg map
Cook PVI  R + 1
Representative Melissa Bean (D)
VoteView rank 226
First elected  2004
2008 margin 60-40 over Steve Greenberg
2006 margin 51-44 (remainder "moderate" party)
2004 margin 52-48
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 56-44
Current opponents Joe Walsh
Demographics 28th highest income ($63K)
Assessment After two close races, Bean won easily in 2008, doing even better than Obama. She has over $1 million COH, an established moderate record that suits this swing district.  Walsh has only $30K COH, and is a right winger.
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Safe

District: IL-09  
Location Northern suburbs of Chicago map
Cook PVI D + 20
Representative Jan Schakowsky (D)
VoteView rank 23
First elected  1998
2008 margin 75-22 over Michael Younan
2006 margin 75-25
2004 margin 76-24
Obama margin 72-26
Bush margin 2004 32-68
Current opponents Joel Pollak
Demographics 35th fewest veterans (8%), 37th most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks (mostly 12.3% Asians)
Assessment Safe. Schakowsky has half a million COH, Pollak has little.

District: IL-10  
Location Northern suburbs of Chicago, along Lake Michigan map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative Mark Kirk (R) Running for Senate
VoteView rank NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 61-38
Bush margin 2004 47-53
Current opponents Democrat Dan Seals; Republican Bob Dold.
Assessment Hard to say.  Each has roughly $750 K COH; I'd guess Seals has better name recognition from his previous runs. Dold is a businessman (he runs a pest control company), Seals is a former teacher and now a business consultant.  This will be hard fought
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup (for lack of a strong sense of what's going on)

District: IL-11  
Location Shaped like a T, with the middle of the T in Ottawa, the bottom in Bloomington, the eastern end in Kankakee, and the western end in rural IL map
Cook PVI  R + 1
Representative Debbie Halvorson (D)
VoteView rank NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 58-34 over Marty Ozinga
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 53-46
Current opponents Adam Kinzinger
Demographics 39th fewest nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks
Assessment Halvorsen has $1.4 million COH, Kinzinger about $500K.  A recent poll had Kinzinger 49-31
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Lean R. Obama got some favorite son votes here; this is a slightly R district.  Halvorson has more COH and the incumbency. But polls look bad.

District: IL-12  
Location Southwestern IL, bordering MO and a tiny bit of KY, including Carbondale and East St. Louis map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Jerry Costello (D)
VoteView rank 189
First elected  1988
2008 margin 72-25 over Timmy Richardson
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 69-29
Obama margin 54-44
Bush margin 2004 48-52
Current opponents Teri Newman
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe.  Costello has $2.5 million COH, no info on Newman

District: IL-13  
Location Southwestern suburbs and exurbs of Chicago map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative Judy Biggert (R)
VoteView rank 293
First elected  1998
2008 margin 54-44 over Scott Harper
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin 65-35
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents Scott Harper is running again.  
Demographics 9th wealthiest district (median income = $72K), 2nd fewest in poverty (2.9%)
Assessment Harper was 10 points behind in a Democratic year, with Obama's coattails.  I wish him luck, but right now, it doesn't look too hopeful.  Biggert has $900K or so COH, Harper about $200K.  Both have debt.

District: IL-14  
Location From the far western part of Chicagoland, west almost to the IA border in northern IL map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative  Bill Foster (D)
VoteView rank 228
First elected  2008
2008 margin 57-43 over Jim Oberweis
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-50
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents  Randy Hultgren
Demographics 37th highest income (median = $56K)
Assessment  Foster, a conservative Democrat, fits this district well.  Foster has about $1.5 million COH, but a lot of debt. Hultgren about $240K. A Republican poll showed Hultgren up by 6.
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup

District: IL-15  
Location Eastern central IL, bordering IN, centering on Urbana-Champaign map
Cook PVI  R + 6
Representative Tim Johnson (R)
VoteView rank 247
First elected  2000
2008 margin 64-36 over Steve Cox
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin 61-39
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 59-41
Current opponents David Gill
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot, Gill has lost to Johnson at least twice.  Johnson has about $200K COH, Gill has little

District: IL-16  
Location Northwestern IL, bordering WI and IA, including Rockford map
Cook PVI  R + 2
Representative Don Manzullo (R)
VoteView rank 345
First elected  1992
2008 margin 61-36 over Robert Abboud
2006 margin 64-32
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents George Gaulrapp
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  Long shot. Manzullo has about $400K COH, Gaulrapp has little.

District: IL-17  
Location A strange shaped district in southwestern IL, bordering IA and MO, including Moline and extending eastward almost to Springfield
map
Cook PVI  D + 3
Representative Phil Hare (D)
VoteView rank 151
First elected  2006
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-42
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Bobby Schilling
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Hare has about $900K COH, Schilling about $200K.  A Republican poll showed Hare up 38-37.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D.  Incumbent, more money, better polls.

District: IL-18  
Location Shaped like a backward C, centering on Peoria in central IL map
Cook PVI  R + 6
Representative Aaron Schock (R)
VoteView rank NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 59-38 over Coleen Callahan
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-50
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Current opponents Deirdre Hirner
Demographics 75th most Whites (90%)
Assessment Safe for Repubs.  Schock has about $450K COH, Hirner has little.

District: IL-19  
Location Southern IL, from suburbs of Springfield south  and east to the IN and KY border map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative John Shimkus (R)
VoteView rank 307
First elected  1996
2008 margin 64-33 over Dan Davis
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin 61-39
Obama margin 44-54
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents Tim Bagwell.
Demographics
Assessment Long shot.  Shimkus has almost $1.5 million COH, Bagwell has little.

District: IN-01
Location Northwestern IN, bordering IL and Lake Michigan, south from Gary about 100 miles map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative Peter Visclosky (D)
VoteView 127
First elected  1984
2008 margin 71-27 over Mark Leyva
2006 margin 70-27
2004 margin 68-32
Obama margin 62-37
Bush margin 2004 44-55
Current opponents Mark Leyva
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  Safe. Visclosky has $700K COH, Leyva has little.

District: IN-02
Location Northern central IN, south from South Bend to Kokomo map
Cook PVI  R + 2
Representative Joe Donnelly (D)
VoteView 235
First elected  2006
2008 margin 67-30 over Luke Puckett
2006 margin 54-46
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 56-43
Current opponents Jackie Walorski
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Donnelly has $1 million COH, Walorski about $300K.  A recent poll showed Donnelly up 48-39
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D.  More money, better polling, incumbency.

District: IN-03
Location Northeastern  IN, bordering MI and OH, including Fort Wayne map
Cook PVI  R + 14
Representative Mark Souder (R) Resigned in scandal
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 68-31
Current opponents Thomas Hayhurst (D). Martin Stutzman (R).
Demographics 33rd most Republican in Cook PVI
Assessment Ordinarily safe for Republicans, but Souder resigned after winning primary.  Hayhurst has $280K COH,  Stutzman about $40K, but this is strongly Republican territory.  

District: IN-04
Location Central IN, including western and southern suburbs of Indianapolis map
Cook PVI  R + 14
Representative Steve Buyer (R) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 69-30
Current opponents Republican: Todd Rokita.  Democrat: David Sanders
Demographics 25th most Republican per Cook PVI, 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans.  Rokita has $60K COH, Sanders has little.

District: IN-05
Location Central IN, including northern and eastern suburbs of Indianapolis map
Cook PVI R + 17
Representative Dan Burton (R)
VoteView 410
First elected 1982
2008 margin 66-34 over Mary Ruley
2006 margin 65-31
2004 margin 72-26
Obama margin 40-59
Bush margin 2004 71-28
Current opponents Tim Crawford
Demographics 22nd fewest in poverty (5.2%), 10th most Republican per Cook PVI
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Burton has $115K COH, no info on Crawford.

District: IN-06
Location Southern part of eastern IN, bordering OH map
Cook PVI R + 10
Representative Mike Pence (R)
VoteView 431
First elected  2000
2008 margin 64-33 over Barry Welsh
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 46-53
Bush margin 2004 64-35
Current opponents Barry Welsh.  
Demographics 41st fewest Latinos
Assessment Safe for Republicans.  Pence has $700K COH, Welsh has little.

District: IN-07
Location Indianapolis and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 14
Representative Andre Carson (D)
VoteView 147
First elected  2008
2008 margin 65-35 over Gabrielle Campo
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 71-28
Bush margin 2004 42-58
Current opponents Marvin Scott
Demographics  50th most Blacks (29.4%)
Assessment safe.  Carson has about $400K COH, Scott has little.

District: IN-08
Location The southern part of eastern IN, including Terre Haute and Evansville map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative  Brad Ellsworth (D) Running for Senate
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 47-51
Bush margin 2004 62-38
Current opponents Trent VanHaaften (D), Larry Bucshon (R)
Demographics 34th most Whites (93.7%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment Ellsworth, a conservative Democrat, fit the district well, running way ahead of both Bush and Obama.  Van Haaften looks like the same sort of Democrat; Bucshon looks like a Tea Partier, which helps.  Bucshon has $200K COH, Van Haaften about $400K but Bucshon gave himself $55K.
SSP rating: Lean R
My rating: Tossup.  This is Republican territory, but it's a blue dog vs. a nut job, so who knows?

District: IN-09
Location Southwestern IN, including Bloomington map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Baron Hill (D)
VoteView 229
First elected 2006
2008 margin 58-38 over Mike Sodrel
2006 margin 50-45
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-50
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Current opponents Todd Young
Demographics 60th most rural (47.7%) and 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)
Assessment After a close race in 2006, Hill won easily in 2008. He has over $1 million COH, Young about $250K
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Lean D

District: IA-01
Location Northern part of eastern IA, bordering WI and IL map
Cook PVI D + 5
Representative Bruce Braley (D)
VoteView 151
First elected  2006
2008 margin 64-36 over David Hartsuch
2006 margin 55-43
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 58-51
Bush margin 2004 46-53
Current opponents Benjamin Lange
Demographics 61st most Whites (92.1%)
Assessment Braley won pretty easily vs. a well-funded opponent in 2006.  Braley has $600K COH, Lange about $100K
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating

District: IA-02
Location Southeastern IA, bordering MO and IL, including Cedar Rapids map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative Dave Loebsack (D)
VoteView 93
First elected  2006
2008 margin 67-39 over Mariannete Miller Meeks
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 60-38
Bush margin 2004 44-55
Current opponents Mariannette Miller Meeks
Demographics 53rd most Whites (92.4%)
Assessment This is an increasingly Democratic district, and Loebsack should be OK; he beat the same opponent easily last time.  Loebsack has over $500K COH, Miller Meeks about $100K.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating:

District: IA-03
Location Central IA, including Des Moines map
Cook PVI D + 1
Representative Leonard Boswell (D)
VoteView 194.5
First elected  1996
2008 margin  56-42 over Kim Schmett
2006 margin 52-46
2004 margin 55-45
Obama margin 54-44
Bush margin 2004 Bush by 250 votes (of 300,000)
Current opponents Brad Zaun.
Demographics 75th most Whites (90.1%)
Assessment Boswell has won easily in this swing district, and he should be OK.  He has $700K COH and Zaun about $100K
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Likely D

District: IA-04
Location Northern central IA, including Ames map.
Cook PVI  Even
Representative Tom Latham (R)
VoteView 290
First elected  1994
2008 margin  61-39 over Becky Greenwald
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin 61-39
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Current opponents Bill Maske
Demographics 20th most Whites (94.7%), 27th fewest Blacks (0.8%), 54th most rural (49.5%)
Assessment Latham has won easily in the past
in this swing district. Latham should be safe.  He has $750K COH and Maske has little.

District: IA-05
Location Western IA, bordering SD and NE, including Sioux City and Council Bluffs map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Steve King (R)
VoteView 419
First elected  2002
2008 margin 60-37 over Rob Hubler
2006 margin 59-36
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 44-54
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents Matthew Campbell.
Demographics 33rd most Whites (93.7%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 53rd most rural (50.6%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans.  King is something of a nut, even for a Republican, but he wins easily. He has $300K COH, Campbell has little

District: KS-01
Location The western 3/4 of KS, bordering NE, OK, and CO map
Cook PVI R + 23
Representative Jerry Moran (R) Retiring to run for Senate
VoteView NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 30-69
Bush margin 2004 72-26
Current opponents Alan Jilka (D), Tim Huelsckamp (R)
Demographics 61st most rural (47.6%)
Assessment Huelskamp is safe.  Huelskamp has $250K COH, Jilka has little.

District: KS-02
Location Eastern KS, except for Kansas City. Includes Topeka map
Cook PVI  R + 9
Representative Lynn Jenkins (R)
VoteView NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 51-46 over Nancy Boyda
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 43-55
Bush margin 2004 59-39
Current opponents Cheryl Hudspeth
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Jenkins seems safe.  She has $800K COH, no info on Hudspeth.

District: KS-03
Location Kansas City and suburbs  map
Cook PVI R + 3
Representative Dennis Moore (D) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 51-48
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents  Stephene Moore (D), Kevin Yoder (R)
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  Yoder has half a million COH, Moore about $200K
SSP rating: Lean R
My rating: Lean R

District: KS-04
Location Eastern part of southern KS, bordering OK, including Wichita map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Todd Tiahrt (R) Retiring to run for Senate
VoteView NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 40-58
Bush margin 2004 64-34
Current opponents Mike Pompeo (R), Raj Goyle (D).
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment With Tiahrt out, this might be in play.  Goyle is raising money like crazy, and has over $700K COH, no info on Pompeo.  But this is a strongly Republican district
SSP rating: Likely R
My rating: Likely R

Originally posted to plf515 on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 02:43 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Congressional tips nt (19+ / 0-)

    We all differ in ways that matter. But we're all the same in the ways that matter most.

    by plf515 on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 02:43:53 AM PDT

  •  The Lack of Polling is Surprising (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, eeff, plf515, Larsstephens

    I live in IL-10, which is one of the most interesting and difficult to call House races this year. You would think that there would be several nonpartisan polls at this point, but there has not been a single one.

    "H.R.W.A.T.P.T.R.T.C.I.T.G -- He really was a terrible president that ran the country into the ground."

    by Reino on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 03:46:18 AM PDT

    •  Of course, in Illinois in general... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Larsstephens

      ...and in the Chicago area in particular, voters are extremely distrustful of pollsters, particularly Democrats (coming from the days when most polls were actually sponsored by the Democratic Machine boss, who might have your extra trash dumpster yanked if you gave the wrong answer).  The Chicago area has been littered over the years with polling results that bore little resemblance to the actual election results.

      Seals should win IL-10 without too much trouble.

  •  One of the saddest and most disappointing (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, askew, eeff, onanyes, plf515, Larsstephens

    pollis is Steve King ahead comfortably in Iowa.  He is more than a bit of a nut.  He's full nut.  Most of the rest of Iowa is so sane.  That western section is so Nebraska-like.  Too bad.  Campbell seems like a great candidate too.

  •  IL-18 here (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, plf515, Grumpy Young Man

    Yeah, I've given money to DK and walked routes for her (and other Democrats; we have a tight state House race, governor's race and Senate race).

    But the IL-18 situation looks grim.  DK is trying, but oh-my-goodness are her youtube video ads terrible.

    This is a shame because she is bright, accomplished and has an impressive resume (chief of staff for two governors in Missouri).  She has move around because her husband was in the Navy (retired as a Captain).

    "Obama won. Get over it."

    by onanyes on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 04:50:14 AM PDT

    •  Sorry, but she was put up to lose. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      onanyes, plf515

      Fortunately, since Illinois will lose a Congressional seat in 2012, look for the 18th to be sliced and diced.  In the even t that Debbie Halvorson losees her seat in IL-11, you can expect a congressional map that lumps the two young Rethugs (Schock and Kinzinger) into one district, assuring that one of their careers is derailed, if not destroyed in 2012.

    •  Hirner is not my idea of a Democrat. (0+ / 0-)

      She spent years running a Chamber of Commerce front group that weakens environmental regulation for the worst polluters in the state.  I can't believe any party leader thought she would be an acceptable candidate.  I have to support the Green in this one because he's the closest thing to a Democrat in the race.

  •  I'd love to see Raj Goyle.... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, plf515

    ....pick up Dan Glickman's old seat. That would be pretty awesome. I think that if he falls short in 2010, he should definitely run again in 2012, which might be a more favorable atmosphere for Democrats, with Obama on top of the ticket, plus him having some roots in Kansas.

  •  Some general comments: (0+ / 0-)

    It would appear that your research consists of little more than checking the two-party voting percentages and the federal campaign disclosure reports.  If you had been more thorough, you would have included missing details in many of the races.  For example, in IL-01 you do not mention that Ray Wardingly (AKA "Spanky the Clown," his professional title as a clown for hire) has been the GOP candidate against Rush several times in the past, ran once as the Republican nomineee in IL-03 and was the last Republican nominee for Mayor of Chicago (losing every one of the city's 2,500+ precincts to Mayor "DINO" Daley in 1995, the same fate that befell the GOP nominees for that office in the previous three elections; shortly thereafter, Rethug legislators changed the law, making the Chicago Mayoral election non-partisan, as a mercy killing to the city's GOP).

    IN IL-04, you neglect to mention that Cong. Gutierrez may well be a candidate for another office (Mayor of Chicago) by the time voter go to the polls on November 2.

  •  Oh your wrong on Baron Hill.. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515

    He was first elected before 2006,he replaced Lee Hamilton after that congressman's retirement but lost in Mike Sodrel in Bush's so-called 2004 wave but he then regained the 9th District seat in 2006.

  •  Great diary as usual. You don't see IL-14 as (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515

    vulnerable? Most pollsters see that one flipping.

    President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

    by askew on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 08:52:54 AM PDT

    •  Oops (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      I have that one as tossup in the diary, but I forgot to add it above.

      We all differ in ways that matter. But we're all the same in the ways that matter most.

      by plf515 on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 11:51:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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