With the most recent DailyKos/PPP poll, we now have enough respondents to start looking at factors that vary by region. I’ve separated out 11 regions based on voting patterns and demographics; approval of Obama by region and race is shown below. Regions are roughly shown from West to East reading from left to right.
There’s no surprises in general; approval of Obama is highest on the East and West Coasts (including what I’ve labeled the New South), lowest in the center of the country. What this will be useful for is tracking changes over the next few years to see if any regions change at different rates.
One interesting thing to note is that there appears to be a general relationship between approval of whites and non-whites (non-whites have approval about 20 points higher than whites) everywhere outside the South. As more data come in, we will be able to explore this in greater depth.
This diary’s purpose is primarily to serve as an introduction to the regions for use as reference for future diaries. Analysis of the DailyKos polls by region, along with the separate state-level polling PPP has been doing, should provide some useful ways of looking at political trends.
The regions are defined by area code boundaries, which aren’t always where I would have liked them to be. I chose the regions based on qualitative interpretations of voting behavior among all voters, whites, and “Americans”; distribution of African-Americans, Hispanics, and “Americans”; and historic settlement patterns. The regions' boundaries are by no means perfect. Here’s some key figures (click for source):
2008 Results - All Vote Change, 2004-2008 2008 Vote, Whites
Cultural Regions Percent Baptist Percent Hispanic
The regions: (click maps to enlarge)
Pacific Coast: Western Washington, Northwest Oregon, Northern California coast and Bay Area. Area of high support among whites.
Southwest: Southern California, AZ, NM, CO, Las Vegas, and parts of Texas. Meant to include of high concentrations of Hispanic populations, outside of Florida.
Plains and Sagebrush: The wide open spaces of the West, minus Pacific Coast, and most of the Southwest. I would have like to have a separate region for the Mormon Triangle (UT, WY, ID) but the population isn’t big enough. Montana isn’t the best fit either frankly.
Upper Midwest: IL, IA, MN, WI, ND, SD and Michigan's Upper Pennisula; includes traditionally Democratic rural areas that are still Democratic.
Rural Heartland: More or less the states of the cornbelt, without most of their major urban areas.
Urban Rustbelt: Metropolitan areas of the rustbelt along the Great Lakes; Milwaukee, Chicago, Gary, Detroit, Toledo, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Buffalo.
Appalachia & Upland South: Includes the highest concentration of “Americans” (those listing American as their ancestry on the 2000 census form) and most of the area where Obama underperformed Kerry.
Old South: The Lowland South, including the highest concentrations of African-Americans arcing from Virgina to Texas, and the lowest support for Democrats among whites.
New South: Mainly metropolitan areas of the Southeast, including DC and suburbs, Charlotte, and Atlanta, for example.
Northeast Corridor: The swath of dense population from DC to Boston.
New England: The traditional definition.
Final Tidbit: Here’s a graph of where Tea Party support is strongest. Roughly speaking, it tracks with number of Republicans (shocking).