Public Policy Polling (PDF) (4/21-24, Nevada voters, January results in parentheses)
Mitt Romney (R): 46 (46)
Barack Obama (D): 43 (47)
Barack Obama (D): 45 (51)
Mike Huckabee (R): 43 (41)
Barack Obama (D): 46 (51)
Newt Gingrich (R): 42 (40)
Barack Obama (D): 47 (--)
Donald Trump (R): 41 (--)
Barack Obama (D): 50 (52)
Sarah Palin (R): 39 (39)
Critics will quibble with the sample a bit–the sample voted for Obama by just five points in 2008, when in actuality, he won by a dozen points.
Having said that, however, the D/R split actually looks pretty fair (D 45, R 35), and having a sample that is 24% African American and Hispanic is almost identical to the 2008 exit polls from the Silver State.
So, what gives? Well, as it relates to Romney, it might be the notion of all the batshit crazy on the GOP side presenting him as the "sane alternative." Romney has an almost unbelievable 58-27 lead over Obama among Independent voters, a group that Obama carried in Nevada in 2008. Romney actually garners approval from 27% of Democrats (Obama, by comparison, nabs just 9% support from Nevada Republicans).
Another point of concern for Obama has to be support among Hispanic voters. The fastest-growing demographic group in America, Hispanics padded Obama's margin of victory in 2008 by giving him an overwhelming mandate in Nevada over John McCain (76-22). In this PPP poll, Obama's support among Hispanics is considerably lower, ranging from just 52-59%, even when paired with sideshow acts like Trump and Palin. Furthermore, this isn't a case of a raft of undecided voters–every single Republican exceeds the 22% threshold set by McCain in 2008 among Hispanic voters.
Obama's standing has slid pretty hard in the state (his job approval is underwater at 45/52), and that slide has been across the board. More than one in five voters that self-identified as very liberal disapprove of the President, and his numbers with moderates are well below his national numbers (55/42).
If there is a saving grace for Obama in Nevada, it may well be Trump. If he actually pulled the trigger on an independent candidacy, the advantage shifts back to the incumbent. Obama would lead Romney by eight under that scenario (42-34), with Trump snagging 20%. Against Huckabee, the margin balloons to double digits (44-30-21).
Meanwhile, while Obama seems to have fallen well off his 2008 pace in Nevada, there is good news for the President this week in another Obama '08 state:
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (4/14-17, North Carolina voters, March results in parentheses)
Barack Obama (D): 48 (45)
Mike Huckabee (R): 47 (45)
Barack Obama (D): 47 (44)
Mitt Romney (R): 44 (42)
Barack Obama (D): 49 (47)
Newt Gingrich (R): 45 (42)
Barack Obama (D): 51 (--)
Donald Trump (R): 39 (--)
Barack Obama (D): 52 (51)
Sarah Palin (R): 40 (40)
Not only do Obama's general election numbers hold up better in the Tar Heel State, his job approval numbers are also better (49/48). Whereas Obama's approval spread is nearly 20 points worse than his 2008 vote totals in Nevada, here in North Carolina we see an identical spread (+1).
So, how does one account for the difference? It isn't in the sample–this poll hews closely to the 2008 exit poll data in North Carolina, just like the Nevada poll.
A closer look under the hood, however, gives us some answers. Obama is doing a much better job of holding onto his 2008 vote in North Carolina. Even in his toughest match-up (Huckabee), Obama is keeping nearly 90% of his 2008 supporters. In Nevada, it was down to 78% when paired with Romney.
Also, the rapid growth of the Tar Heel state seems to be working in Obama's favor. Among the fairly sizeable number of people who have moved in-state in the past decade (roughly one-fifth of the electorate), Obama is quite popular (59/38 job approval). As a result, he holds double-digit leads with this corps of voters against all GOP comers.
Ideologically, liberals in North Carolina are about five to eight points happier with Obama than those in Nevada, but North Carolina might also have some liberals masquerading as moderates. Obama's job approval here is considerably higher (65/29) than the +13 net approval he sees with moderates in Nevada. He also scores north of 20% approval from "somewhat conservative" voters, which is a rare match to his 2008 numbers among center-right voters.
Obama, of course, could easily win both states. He could also, presuming the GOP can unify around a candidate that is not anathema to 70% of the nation, lose both states. But the fact that he is politically in better position in the state he barely won in 2008, as opposed to a state he won going away in 2008, underscores that the political terrain continues to shift beneath our feet.