Canada is now on the verge of a turning point in her history with the NDP about to replace the Liberals as the party of the left. Canada was one of the three countries, along with the U.S. and Ireland, where the switch from a liberal to an explicitly left-wing party did not occur.
While this is exciting, there is another sense in which this election could unfortunately become historic if ever the Conservatives were able to make the 7 net gains they need for a majority. Some strategic voting will be necessary in certain seats, the vast majority of which are around Toronto, the single biggest vulnerable region to the Tory onslaught. It is an area they have been targeting (remember each riding here has on average 130,000 people "only".)
The following polling numbers we have suggest a Tory edge:
Date / Pollster / Con / NDP / Lib / Grn?BQ?
May 1 / Nanos / 37.0% / 30.6% / 22.7% / 5.5%
Apr 30 / Leger Marketing / 36% / 31% / 21% / 7% / NDP 5 points out of first place
Apr 30 / Angus-Reid / 37.0% / 33.0% / 19.0% / NDP 4 points out of first place
Apr 30 / Nanos / 38.0% / 29.6% / 23.3% / 5.2%
Apr 29 / Ipsos-Reid / 38.0% / 33.0% / 18.0% / 7% / NDP within 5 points of first place
Apr 29 / EKOS / 34.5% / 29.7% / 20.0% / 6.3% / NDP withing 4.8 points of first place
Apr 29 / Nanos / 36.4% / 31.2% / 22.0% / 5.7% / NDP within 5.2 points of first place
Apr 28 / Harris Decima / 35.0% / 30.0% / 22.0% / NDP within 5 points of first place
Apr 28 / EKOS / 34.8% / 27.5% / 22.3% / 6.1%
Apr 28 / Nanos / 36.6% / 30.4% / 21.9% / 6.0% / NDP within 6.2 points of first place
Apr 27 / EKOS / 34.0% / 28.1% / 22.9% / 6.6% / NDP within 5.9 points of first place
Apr 27 / Forum Research / 34.0% / 31.0% / 22.0% / NDP within 3 points of first place (There is another poll from them I believe showing NDP and Tories within 2 points but cannot find it)
It is unclear whether there is a last-minute swing either way or whether the Liberals have bottomed out. The latter may not be the case, and it is likely they will do exceptionally badly in Montréal and the GTA. For the only time this campaign, Ignatieff, had "no comment" to give to reporters while casting his vote.
Turnout should rise a little bit, in spit of some rain near Vancouver, Ottawa and Montréal.
Now let's have a look at the various regions of the country.
NEWFOUNDLAND
Polls close here at 8:30 PM (7 PM Eastern Time). The Conservatives did stunningly badly here last time and can only rebound from last time, but they're not about to romp. Turnout in the province fell below 50% last time; assuming a return to average (60%) most of this increase will go Conservative. The Liberals are in defence mode:
St John's South-Mount Pearl: The NDP's number one target from the Liberals in Canada. The Tories held it before 2008 but it does not appear they have rebounded sufficiently here.
Avalon: Tory Senator Fabian Manning wants this seat back. However, there are less people who did not vote here last time than elsewhere, a local poll has him behind and the NDP vote is likely to be very low.
Random-Burin-St. George's: Judy Foote's margin is "only" 6,000 votes. She faces a strong challenge from former provincial cabinet member John Ottenheimer.
Labrador: Such a small riding can be very unpredictable, although the Liberals have always won here. The Tories are a locally-known Innu, Peter Penashue.
THE MARITIMES
Polls close at 9:00 PM. There has been a strong late NDP surge here and the region is a three-way tie. The 3 NDP incumbents tend to rack up the score in their ridings on election night, so an increase from last time will be more strongly felt in other ridings. Nova Scotia has an NDP edge, New Brunswick a Conservative one.
PEI: Trying to predict what will happen here is a crapshoot. There are three Liberals and Fisheries Minister Gail Shea. The NDP has never been competitive here except in Charlottetown in 1997.
Sydney-Victoria: Former provincial cabinet minister Cecil Clarke is said to be giving the weak Liberal MP a run for his money. With the NDP rise, any of the three could win.
South Shore-St. Margaret's/Dartmouth-Coal Harbour/Central Nova/Halifax West: In that order, those would be the seats the NDP would stand a very, very reasonable chance as Nova Scotia. The results in Central Nova last time were marred by Elizabeth May -- in 2006 the margin was about 3400.
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe: The Liberals had a close scare last time, but the Conservatives were late off the ground and closed an office dealing with Francophone affairs here. Liberal edge.
Saint John, N.B.: A narrow Tory gain last time. The NDP is competitive here provincially and sent in a strong candidate, creating a possible three way race.
Madawaska-Restigouche: This is a seat, with former MP and Mulroney minister Bernard Valcourt, they ABSOLUTELY have to win (he got 45+% in 1993).
QUEBEC
Now comes the key province of the campaign. The story of the campaign has been the NDP surge, and it not only began here, but it went further than anywhere else all the while starting from lower than elsewhere. Now is not the time to explain how it was done, as it flies in the face of all previous electoral tradition. They got 12% in 2008 and some polls have them as high as 45%, with a lead over the BQ approaching 20 points.
It would be difficult to say exactly which seats they would gain though. However, the voting pattern from the 2007 provincial election which had their PQ cousins at 28% suggests the Bloc is doing rather better in the East of the province, with the NDP doing very well indeed in the 450 and 514 area codes around Montréal.
If it is indeed true that the NDP is around 50% in Greater Montréal, it's going to be an abattoir for the Bloc and the Liberals -- they too are lower than last time in the province and 13 of their 14 seats are here.
However, the NDP has no real ground game in the province and only 13 campaign offices. The Bloc does but it is not clear if it will make a difference unless turnout is low.
The Conservatives are also lower than last time, and could very well lose up to three members of cabinet, are no longer expected to make any gains, and may well be on the receiving end of tactical voting.
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou: The northern half of the province, it was a Tory target. However, at the beginning of the campaign it was already an NDP target with Cree leader Romeo Saganash running. Polling would suggest an NDP walk but it is presently outarde season so a three-way race is likely.
Jonquière-Alma: NO ONE saw Jean-Pierre Blackburn as vulnerable last time, yet a recent poll has him neck and neck with the NDP (Thomas Mulcair unbelievably predicted early on they could win -- in fact even the NDP is surprised at the surge). That being said, polls had him behind in both 2006 and 2008.
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup: An Tory gain in a by-election. However, tactical voting is difficult as the NDP was so unbelievably low last time and voter fatigue is high here (there were also two provincial by-elections.)
Québec City: The race is extremely tight in all 5 ridings, with only Beauport-Limoilou going NDP beyond the MOE (with incumbent Tory in 3rd.) Right-wing radio is apoplectic with rage, treating Layton nicely in an effort to split the vote (this was without a doubt the most important campaign stop for any party in this election.) Three Tories and two Bloquistes are all threatened, but I expect one BQers (Christiane Gagnon) to just eke it out. Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Josée Verner is hated and was tied in a local poll, but her riding contains a military base and the Bloc vote was only at 17% in it. Expect very high turnout and no Conservative gain.
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier: A poll has a three way race between the NDP, King Arthur and the BQ. Toss-up.
Trois-Rivières: A poll has the race at 42% NDP and 28% BQ, however a controversy (admittedly very problematic) with the NDP NoB next door suggests there could be a last-minute local swing. Although this was the redoubt of Maurice Duplessis, it tends to follow provincial trends.
Drummond: Should go NDP easily although projections may be marred by the fact a popular MP retired last time.
Brome-Mississquoi: The BQ candidate... was the NDP candidate last time! There is a tight three-way race between Liberals, BQ and NDP.
Chambly-Borduas: Normally goes BQ without fuss, but a controversial comedian, Jean-François Mercier (le gros cave) is running and makes an NDP win likely -- other than Outremont, this is the only riding the NDP ever won before. The NDP is a co-president of NDP McGill... who admitted he would be more disappointed by the Boston Bruins beating the Habs than by not winning his seat.
Verchères--Les Patriotes/Vaudreuil--Soulages: Were it not for locally popular Bloquistes, the NDP would be in with a shout. Still, were getting close to Montréal.
Laurier--Sainte-Marie: Gilles Duceppe himself is not safe here... and he might, when all is said and done, wish he'd lose.
Rosemont--La-Petite-Patrie: A major NDP target with a lot of focus on by volunteers -- Bernard Bigras' margin is 18,000.
Papineau--Saint-Denis: Justin Trudeau faces a difficult rematch with Viviane Barbot in one of Canada's poorest and most polarized ridings. It's not clear whether the NDP can come up the middle as confusion is likely as far as strategic voting is concerned (Justin is detested by francophones.)
Ahuntsic: This is likely the only Liberal prospect in Québec this election, with a popular former city councillor, and Maria Mourani is not liked by many in the Bloc rank and file. However, NDP strength makes this very uncertain.
Mount-Royal: Yes, even the seat of P.E.T. is questionable. This was one of Harper's last stops on the basis of the high Jewish population (an attempt to capitalize on their position on Israel.) The NDP makes this seat unpredictable and they have a rare campaign office here.
Lac-Saint-Louis: This was a Tory target with Larry Smith. It then moved to safe Liberal. It has probably moved to a three-way race.
Pontiac: Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon is in difficulty here. However the NDP candidate here is a last-minute one... and a former Communist.
ONTARIO
Now it is the Liberals' turn to sauver les meubles (saving the furniture). The NDP rise here was late but gives the Conservatives opportunities in three-way races. Much depends on where the NDP vote rise is located -- their weakest area is traditionally the 905 around Toronto, and it had better stay that way. Overall the swing from Liberals to Tories looks to about 5%, but since the Conservatives are not rising there is a swing from Conservatives to NDP of about 4%.
Ottawa-Orléans: The Ottawa Citizen suggests this riding is the most likely in the Ottawa area to flip to the Liberals. The present situation makes this unlikely.
Kingston & The Islands: Speaker Peter Milliken is retiring, meaning this seat is up for grabs. Jack Layton had a huge rally here yesterday, suggesting a potential three-way race.
Oshawa: A seat the NDP always wants but always seems to come up short, the numbers this time give them a chance.
Ajax-Pickering: The Conservatives would really like to get rid of thorn Mark Holland and bought in the former envoy to Afghanistan Chris Alexander to take him out. However, a pair of controversies gives Holland a very small chance of holding on.
Brampton-Springdale (Dhalla)/Brampton West/Mississauga South/York Centre (Ken Dryden)/Eglinton-Lawrence (Volpe): 5 major Tory targets without which no majority is possible for them. Some of these Liberal incumbents have controversies of their own, and Joe Volpe was caught removing Green party mailers from mailboxes.
Mississauga-Brampton South (Bains)/Bramalea-Gore-Malton (Malhi)/Mississauga-Streetsville/Mississauga East-Cooksville (Fonseca): Given present numbers, it is looking like the Tories have a chance at sweeping Peel region. The last seat would only fall on an 8.9% swing. It is an open seat, however.
Etobicoke Centre: The Conservatives think they can take Michael Wilson's former riding. They need a swing of 5.8%, however this was the site of the "ethnic costumes" controversy.
Don Valley West: The Conservatives need a swing of just 2.8% to get this one. However, the NDP might be very low.
Scarborough-Southwest: Layton's very last campaign stop. They have tradition here, however a 6.2% swing would give this to the Conservatives. Still, their candidate has a controversy of his own.
Parkdale-High Park/Davenport/Beaches-East York/York South-Weston: These are the NDP's best chances in Toronto. They have tradition in the latter one but it is the furthest away, requiring a 9.4% swing.
Southwestern Ontario is mostly Conservative, although not overbearingly so. It is possible the NDP are doing even better around here than the polls suggest. The recession hit here more than anywhere else in the country and the recovery has also been the weakest.
Welland: Worthy of a mention as it is NDP seat number 37, however it appears the Liberal vote has collapsed is their favour.
Guelph: Conservatives think they can take this riding, however there is a large Green, NDP and youth vote to squeeze. The 'vote mobs' started here.
Kitchener-Waterloo: Seat number 143 for the Conservatives and the biggest surprise last time with an 11%+ swing, Peter Braid sit on a margin of 17 votes. Tactical voting is possible, but an independent who ran for the NDP last time complicates things.
Essex/Brant: Two seats the NDP previously held that are now Conservative. However, they were not particularly close last time.
Simcoe-Grey: Helena Guergis is running as an independent after being dumped over odd activites suspected by her husband (former Edmonton MP Rahim Jaffer.) However the riding is ancestrally Conservative.
THE PRAIRIES
Here the Conservatives do well both seat-wise and vote wise, and the NDP rise has had little impact.
No changes from last time are expected in Manitoba, if one ignores Winnipeg North which should return to the NDP after a by-election.
North: Ditto
The NDP has a few prospects in Saskatchewan, chiefly Palliser, Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar (seat 38 for past of last election night) and Desnethé-Missnippi-Churchill River (covering the northern half of the province). There seems to be a small swing to the NDP from the Conservatives.
Alberta as usual is uninteresting outside of Edmonton, where they must defend Edmonton-Strathcona and possibly pick up Edmonton East. The status quo is likely to prevail however, and again there is only a small swing to the NDP.
BRITISH COLUMBIA
Elections are normally decided by the time B.C. reports. This time however, it is a critical province, with the Conservatives playing a serious defensive game. There seems to be a swing to the NDP of about 5%, without other surveys giving a swing of as much as 10%
They need to defend in order of vulnerability, Surrey North (Dona Cadman), Vancouver Island North (John Duncan), Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, North Vancouver (rare Liberal target), Saanich-Gulf Islands (Elizabeth May), Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows-Mission and Fleetwood-Port Kells (no Green candidate on ballot), and Nanaimo-Alberni.
The Liberals depending on whether they are closer to 20 or 25% (this province is difficult to poll), lose Vancouver South (Tory target number ONE, just 20 votes), and Newton-North Delta (probably to the NDP). Esquimalt--Juan-de-Fuca is a sure loss as Keith Martin is retiring -- the race is close between the NDP and Cons (Tory target number two, by less than 80 votes, however a traditional NDP zone.)