UPDATE: This map was done before Texas's election data was uploaded into the application for the 2010 numbers. Obviously I was using racial breakdowns as a proxy for district lean (as it is usually accurate in the south) as well as my general feel for my home state. A few of the Hispanic majority districts are much less Democratic than I gave them credit for - this is not due to Hispanics being more Republican than usual, but due to Hispanics not turning out at adequate levels. A better map is forthcoming.
In fact, districts 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 are all moderately to very Republican. One wonders why the Texas legislature does not draw Hispanic majority districts which will vote Republican.
On my last Texas map I simply wanted to respect communities of interest and create a few new Hispanic districts. This map, however, has totally different goals.
1) Maximize Democratic opportunity.
2) Create Hispanic majority districts wherever possible.
3) Jam Republican incumbents into districts that a) won't reelect them or b) with other Republican incumbents.
The outcome was an 18-18 split (you can't get much better than that in Texas without violating the VRA). The interesting thing about this map is that there is a hard split between the Republican areas and the Democratic areas that runs on a northwest to southeast diagonal. Everything northeast of that line (except of the urban cores of Houston and Dallas/Fort Worth) is Republican, everything southwest is Democratic or swing.
A Note: The gradient of colors signifies nothing about partisan lean except in the map labeled as such. Anything orange-brown is Republican, anything blue is Democratic.
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Here is a racial breakdown of the districts. I only include data for groups that make up at least 5% of the population, anything less than that is inconsequential. There are 12 majority Hispanic VAP districts, 1 plurality Hispanic VAP district, and 3 plurality African-American VAP districts. Opening the image in another tab will probably help your eyes.
*The redistricting file will no longer open in Dave's app. I don't know why. I had made some small changed between the original draft and the new draft that I cannot verify. The changes in districts 3 and 15 will not drastically alter their ethnic/racial breakdowns. The changes between districts 7 and 8 are detailed in the comments. The changes between districts 23 and 16 make 23 much whiter and 16 much less white (plurality Hispanic in total population). There are small changes between districts that I did to create more population equity. In the original draft the deviations went into the 2500 range for some districts, but in this draft there are only three or four that go above +-1000 from the target. Most are beneath +-750. So, the numbers below are not exact.
In Austin I've created two and a half districts. The 1st is Lloyd Doggett's district and couldn't be won by a Republican period. The second would vote Michael McCaul out just as easily. The dividing line between the two is the Colorado River in the outlying areas of the county, but within the core everything south of 2222 is in the 1st. The 3rd district is currently by held Rep. Carter of Round Rock. He could probably hold this district as long as he wants, but the moment he retires it will probably lean Democratic. In Williamson County everything east of Interstate 35 and north of SH29 is in the 3rd, while everything else is in the 2nd.
In San Antonio I've placed Lamar Smith and Charlie Gonzalez in the same district (6th). Though it isn't overwhelmingly Democratic, Lamar Smith isn't moderate enough to win here. I've placed Canseco in the 5th. He could probably hold the district in an environment like 2010, but anything to the left of that it'd be a tossup. The 4th is vacant, but is probably more Democratic than the 5th. All three of these districts are 50.x percent Hispanic, which was extraordinarily hard to accomplish.
I've kept the same amount of districts in The Valley, surprisingly. For those who don't know - I've had suspicions about some people's definitions - Laredo is not The Valley. The only four counties are Cameron, Hidalgo, Starr, and Willacy. There is a district based in each of McAllen, Harlingen, and Brownsville. All are over 60% Hispanic. The McAllen district shed Laredo, so is vacant.
Simple: Reyes gets a district, but one that is less Hispanic so as to make Conoway more vulnerable. Conoway's district is just underneath majority Hispanic, but he'll probably last until the district is 55-60% Hispanic. Considering virtually all of the growth here is in El Paso, I'd give it five or six years.
This map is practically the same as my last map (which, in turn, was derivative of someone else's map). The Democratic districts are almost identical, but the Republican districts have been altered somewhat. The 16th has a majority white VAP, but is rapidly becoming more Hispanic.
This map is practically the same as my last map (which, in turn, was derivative of someone else's map). The Democratic districts are almost identical, but the Republican districts have been altered somewhat. The results are the same, except for Culberson, who - given the trajectory of Hispanic growth - is running out of time.
I've broken it down into 7 categories:
Safe Democratic: Anything over 60% Hispanic VAP (except for the Corpus District-Brownsville), anything with a substantial African American population, and the two Austin based districts. Number: 11
Likely Democratic: Districts between 50%-60% Hispanic VAP, except for Western Bexar County (which is more Republican friendly) and the Big Bend district (where Hispanic voters are especially unreliable). The Corpus Christi-Brownsville district is also included due to it's dalliance with the Republican party in 2010. Number: 5
Lean Democratic: The Western Bexar County district. Number: 1
Tossup: The Big Bend district. Number: 1
Lean Republican: One each in Houston and Fort Worth. Culberson's district is only plurality white VAP, while the 16th is barely a majority. Number: 2
Likely Republican: John Carter's district. Number: 1
Safe Republican: Anything with a white majority that isn't listed above. Number: 15