Latest poll from Pew Research:
This shift is driven by a steep drop-off in support for Obama among independents. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted July 20-24 among 1,501 adults and 1,205 registered voters finds that just 31% of independent voters want to see Obama reelected, down from 42% in May and 40% in March. Where Obama held a slim 7-point edge among independent registered voters two months ago, a generic Republican holds an 8-point edge today.
This is consistent with a drop in Obama’s approval among all independents. Currently, a majority (54%) disapprove of Obama’s performance for the first time in his presidency. His approval among independents has slipped to 36% from 42% last month and 49% in late May.
I thought we've been going through all this to gain ground among independents? What's goin on Plouffe?
With just 8% saying the national economy is in excellent or good shape and only 38% rating their personal finances positively, economic assessments are as negative as they were for George H. W. Bush as he entered his reelection campaign. However, the current unemployment rate is much higher, and overall satisfaction with the state of the nation much lower, than was the case in late 1991.
Ya think? You mean independents care much more about jobs than they do about bipartisanship, deficits, or proverbial adults in rooms? Nobody could have predicted.
Jobs. That's all we should be about right now. But listen to David Plouffe:
“The average American does not view the economy through the prism of GDP or unemployment rates or even monthly jobs numbers,” Plouffe said. “People won’t vote based on the unemployment rate, they’re going to vote based on: ‘How do I feel about my own situation? Do I believe the president makes decisions based on me and my family?’”
Dear clueless: throw out your playbook. Its fucked. People definitely give a shit about the unemployment rate, even if they have a job. There's this little thing Americans like to do. Its called getting ahead. When people think they can get ahead, they go ahead and spend. If things look shitty, they hold back and wait. So sir, you are absolutely mistaken if you think the public doesn't pay attention to what is going on in the broader economy. They do. Additionally, I really don't think you want to start asking voters, especially Black Democrats, "How do I feel about my own situation?" You're not going to get a pleasant answer.
This deficit "debate" hasn't enhanced Obama's standing among moderates and independents. All the polls have shown his support either softening or trending downward. Standing as an impartial arbiter between the two sides hasn't led to indies flocking to Obama. Know why? Because that's a process argument people don't give a shit about. It just sort makes people say that the President is a nice, reasonable guy. It doesn't mean they stop paying attention to the lack of action on unemployment. Of course the president is a nice, reasonable guy. How's that get a guy a job?
Dear Obama Campaign HQ in Chicago: Please stop giving the president bad political advice.
Want to get our guy's indie numbers up? Stop with the 'both sides' crap and start talking about A DEMOCRATIC PLAN for JOBS. Go make one. And please, no more of this "bump in the road" "headwinds" crap, as if we are just coasting along in the right direction. Nobody is buying it.
Every time you get a bad number, go back to your plan. If anybody asks, go back to your plan. Make a strong plan, and run on it.
But, predictably, I'm sure you got this. I'm just armchair quarterbacking out here in my bathrobe in mom's basement, cheeto bag at the ready. You all know best. Heckuvajob guys.