Visual source: Newseum
CBS/NY Times poll:
Republicans appear more energized than Democrats at the outset of the 2012 presidential campaign, but have not coalesced around a candidate. Even as the party’s nominating contest seems to be narrowing to a two-man race between Mitt Romney and Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, a majority of their respective supporters say they have reservations about their candidate. Half of Republicans who plan to vote in a primary say they would like more choices.
and
For the first time in CBS News polls, more Republicans now view Palin unfavorably (39 percent) than favorably (36 percent). Opinions are similar among Republican primary voters. Just after her convention speech in 2008, three in four Republicans viewed her favorably.
and
But there is an 18 point partisan enthusiasm gap that currently favors Republicans: 44 percent of Republican voters are more enthusiastic about voting in 2012, while just 26 percent of Democrats are. This is a reversal compared to October, 2007, when twice as many Democrats as Republicans expressed more enthusiasm about voting.
Bottom line? Obama has alienated some parts of his base without winning over independents and centrists. That can't have been the plan.
Gallup:
There is little sign that President Obama is suffering disproportionately in support among Jews; 54% approved of his job performance from Aug. 1-Sept. 15, 13 percentage points higher than his overall 41% approval rating during that time, and similar to the average 14-point gap seen throughout Obama's term.
John Sides:
The fixation on a trend among one group is doubly misleading because it gets your mind thinking about explanations idiosyncratic to that group. So with Jews, it’s because of Obama’s alleged dovishness on Israel. With Latinos, it’s because he hasn’t pushed comprehensive immigration reform. With working-class whites, it’s because he’s too elitist. And so on.
What’s happened to Obama is not a “Jewish problem.” It’s an “economy problem.”
Kathleen Parker:
Republicans have earned some of the ridicule aimed their way. Many are willing to dumb themselves down to win the support of the party’s base, preferring to make fun of evolution and global warming rather than take the harder route of explaining, for example, that a “theory” when applied to evolution has a specific scientific meaning. It isn’t just some random idea cooked up in a frat house.
It is far easier to say what is pleasing to the ear than what is true. Even so, anyone who thinks Republicans are stupid is missing the point. What those dummies Bush and Perry have in common, other than having been Texas governors, pilots and cheerleaders (what is it with Texas?), is that they’re not stupid at all.
This doesn’t mean they’re right about everything or even most things. But they’re smart enough to know that most people in this country didn’t go to Ivy League colleges — or any college for that matter. Most haven’t led privileged lives of any sort, but nonetheless have unspoiled hearts and are willing to help any who would help themselves.
Cutesy article that dances around the fact that if these guys aren't dumb, they're lying their assess off to get elected. Maybe you should wait before Perry has won before you give him credit for something he hasn't earned. After all, the smart money is actually on Romney (check Intrade.) And get it through your head... winning over Republicans isn't winning. You need a majority, and Perry's SS stance is not winning hearts and minds outside of GOP circles. So, sticking up for dumb... well, that's just stupid.
Brendan Nyhan:
In other words, we shouldn't make too much of where Obama stands against his likely Republican opponents right now. The direction of the economy is a better indicator of how the election is likely to turn out (as well as Obama's approval ratings, of course, which are heavily influenced by the economy). As Wlezien and Erikson show, the campaign brings economic factors into focus for voters, which in turn causes trial heats to come into closer alignment with the eventual outcome as the election draws near. For now, though, these polls are mostly a media sideshow.