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Washington is one of the states that's gaining a seat in redistricting, but the state's redistricting process hasn't been as loaded with drama as many other states. Partly, that's because the state uses an independent redistricting commission rather than putting the process in the hands of the legislature, so creative and/or egregious acts of gerrymandering aren't in the cards. (That isn't to say it isn't a partisan tussle; the commission has 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans, and a 5th member who's there as a facilitator and -- unlike what we just saw in New Jersey -- doesn't get a tiebreaking vote. The lead Dem and lead GOPer, former Seattle deputy mayor Tim Ceis and former Senator Slade Gorton, have two of the sharpest sets of elbows in the state.)
And partly, that's because the outcome hasn't seemed that much in doubt. With most of the population growth occurring in Seattle's mostly Dem-friendly suburbs, there aren't that many ways to play it; there would be a new Dem-leaning open seat somewhere in the outer reaches of Seattle's suburbs, in exchange for safer seats for Republicans Dave Reichert and Jaime Herrera Beutler, with the main question where that new district's focus would be.
In fact, we've gotten a preview: in September, each of the four commissioners released his own proposed map. Each map had its own quirks, but the common thread was that each had a district linking elements of south Seattle, south King County, and Bellevue on the eastside (with several of those maps turning it into a majority-minority district). Three of the maps bolstered Reichert by having his 8th district cross the Cascades in mid-state to eastern Washington, and focused a new district on Olympia further south. Gorton's map tried something totally different, with a swingy open seat crossing the Cascades in the north, linking the state's northwest and north-central portions.
Today's release (pdf) mashes those four maps into something coherent. It follows the basic lines of the three non-Gorton maps, turning the 9th into a safely-blue majority-minority district linking south Seattle, Bellevue, and Federal Way, and creating the new swingy/lean-Dem 10th in the Olympia area but reaching over to Tacoma's suburbs.
But it does something very weird with the 1st and 2nd districts (along the lines of the Huff map from September), which may greatly scramble who's running for the open 1st district, formerly a solid-blue district held by Jay Inslee, who's leaving to run for Governor. Instead of an east-west line running through Snohomish County like the current map dividing an Everett/Bellingham 2nd from a Shoreline/Edmonds 1st, now there's a north-south line dividing a waterfront 2nd from an inland 1st.
Here's a district-by-district rundown:
1st: The new 1st seems to join together a lot of communities not of interest, unless being north of Seattle and east of I-5 is an interest. This looks like an even or maybe only slightly-Dem-leaning district: at its south anchor, it has the high-income, high-education, Dem-friendly Eastside suburbs of Kirkland, Redmond, and Bothell, as well as some of eastern unincorporated King County. The rest of it, though, is exurban and rural turf that's pretty Republican-friendly (note that even though most of Whatcom Co. is in this district, the college town of Bellingham is in the 2nd). Most of the Dems who were running for the 1st are still sited here and will presumably continue to run here: Darcy Burner, Roger Goodman, Laura Ruderman, and Steve Hobbs (but Marko Liias now finds his house in the 7th). I'd expect one or more legitimate Republican contenders (beyond no-name '10 loser James Watkins, the only GOPer running so far) to show up now that the district's more of a fair fight than before; 2010 WA-02 loser John Koster, who lives in rural Snohomish Co, is certainly a possibility. [UPDATE: I just drew up the new 1st roughly in Dave's Redistricting App, and it works out to 49 Murray, 51 Rossi, which indicates that it's prime swing territory. (Washington in DRA only has 2010 Senate numbers, not presidential numbers; I'd eyeball it at about 54% Obama, or D+1.)]
2nd: Dem Rick Larsen's once-swingy Everett-based district, which he narrowly won in 2010, looks to get safer, with the loss of rural Snohomish and Whatcom Counties, and with the gain Dem-friendly suburbs like Lynnwood to its south.
3rd: Republican freshman Jaime Herrera Beutler gets a slightly safer district centered on Portland's northern suburb of Vancouver, mostly by virtue of losing solidly-Dem Olympia at the district's north end, what with its state employees, college students, and assorted hippies. It picks up two smaller counties (red Klickitat east of the Cascades; blue Pacific on the coast) but that doesn't tip the balance too much; this should be on the reddish end of swing district status now.
4th: Republican long-timer Doc Hastings loses Wenatchee and Ellensburg, but those were about as Republican-friendly as the rest of his Yakima and Tri-Cities-centered district, which should stay red with little trouble.
5th: Likewise, there's little change for Republican Cathy McMorris Rodgers' Spokane-area district, a safely red seat.
6th: The delegation's dean, Dem Norm Dicks, sees little change to his safely Dem district. He gets most of Tacoma, along with Bremerton and the Olympic Peninsula. He does pick up Bainbridge Island (which is pretty solidly blue) from the old 1st.
7th: Dem Jim McDermott loses south Seattle (the mostly-non-white part of the city) while picking up some suburbs to the north, like Shoreline and Edmonds. However, even those suburbs are pretty blue, and this remains the most solidly-Dem district in the state.
8th: GOPer Dave Reichert, who's had nothing but close races over the years, might breathe a little easier. His 8th retains the least Dem-friendy parts of King County (Auburn, where he lives, along with Issaquah and Sammamish) along with rural Pierce County. But it gives up Dem-leaning Bellevue to the 9th, and instead picks up Wenatchee and Ellensburg from east of the Cascades. I'd still call it potentially 'swingy' (east King Co. still went for Obama by a decent margin) but with a reddish hue, and I'm not sure if it'd be that attractive to Dem Suzan DelBene (who hasn't said if she's in or out yet) for a rematch.
9th: Dem Adam Smith, who lives in NE Tacoma, gets a dramatically reconfigured district, losing the southern suburbs of Tacoma and the area around Ft. Lewis, instead picking up Renton and an arm that reaches all the way up to Bellevue on the Eastside and into south Seattle. This district is apparently now designed to be a majority-minority seat (although 50%+1 of all non-whites, no particular race). This makes Smith much safer, but he might face off against an ambitious Dem from the new northern parts of the district who sees an opening with the many new constituents.
10th: The new district is centered on dark-blue Olympia, though it also includes swingier territory around Ft. Lewis and the suburbs south of Tacoma, like Puyallup and Spanaway. I'd give the early advantage here to Denny Heck, the Dem who lost narrowly in WA-03 in 2010 and has already staked claim to this seat. Other strong Dems are likely to seek this seat out now, though, and it's not entirely a slam dunk for the Dems, as Tacoma's exurbs seem to trending against them. (It's possible Smith might want to run here instead, since half of his constituents ended up here and this swingy/light-blue district might be a better fit for his moderatism.) [UPDATE: I DRA'd this district too; it's a more comfortable 53 Murray, 47 Rossi, maybe a PVI of D+4 or 5. Also, worth noting, Adam Smith just endorsed Heck here, so it looks like he's sticking with the 9th.]
In a nutshell, it's not as clearly a 6-4 Dem map as optimistic Dems (me included) had expected. The strangely reconfigured 1st, which sinks back into swing territory, definitely gives the GOP an opportunity, depending on the relative strength of the candidates who survive the top 2 primary. (We should have more extensive numbers and Google Maps views in the coming days, but if you can't wait, the raw materials are all available at the commission's site.)