From Pew
we get numbers that appear on the upper end of the range of polls showing where President Obama's position is today:
But both GOP frontrunners are running well behind Barack Obama in general election matchups. Among all voters, Obama leads Romney by 12 points (54% to 42%) and Santorum by 18 points (57% to 39%). Obama’s advantage among women voters, while largely unchanged from a month ago, remains substantial – 20 points over Romney and 26 points over Santorum
As you dive into the numbers, a few things stand out clearly:
1. President Obama is beating Romney among men 49 to 46. Romney simply can't win a general election while losing men and losing women by 20 points as he is in this poll.
2. Romney is only beating Obama by 8 points among Whites, 52-44. For Romney to win, that number has to look a lot more like 60-40 or better. He's got to run up the score with Whites. Big time.
3. Romney's losing all people of color 83-13! SEVENTY POINTS! You simply can't win a general election with numbers like that while not simultaneously building up a huge advantage among Whites.
In short, it is clear Romney has a long, long way to go before he's a viable general election candidate. He is really no more electable than Santorum is.
Pretty clear that the NYT/CBS poll is an outlier:
Two other polls released on Tuesday showed relatively little change in Obama’s standing, but both had results that were closer to the Pew and Gallup numbers than the New York Times/CBS figures. A Reuters-Ipsos poll put Obama’s job approval at 50%-48%, essentially unchanged from the month before. And a Bloomberg News poll had Obama’s job approval at 48%, up from 45% in September, when the poll was last conducted.
So I think it is safe to say at this point that with the range of polling we've seen, President Obama is a solid bet for reelection, but his climb upward has stalled a bit. Also keep in mind this is a broad registered voter poll, not a likely voter sample. And also note it is a national poll, but presidential elections are won state by state. His numbers could be up substantially in blue states as Democrats rally around the flag, but remain flat in the key midwestern states that will prove crucial.
That being said, I think the president is in for a stretch of polls showing some decline in support or at least a leveling off at just under 50 percent. Indies are volatile at this point. They don't like what they see from the GOP, but they're not exactly excited about Obama either. He's at 45-42 approve/disapprove among indies. The economy will have to continue to firm up for him to move into sure thing territory.