Despite the (Wait. Wasn’t Obama Winning?) premature celebration from conservatives over the statistical noise of the recent CBS/NY Times and ABC/Washington Post polls showing a slight drop in Obama's approval ratings, Pew joins Reuters (Obama's approval rating up to 50 percent: Reuters/Ipsos poll) in showing considerable strength for Obama's position:
Mitt Romney has retaken a significant lead nationally in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, even as he has fallen further behind Barack Obama in a general election matchup. Moreover, Obama’s own job approval rating has reached 50% for the first time since last May, shortly after the killing of Osama bin Laden...
Among all voters, Obama leads Romney by 12 points (54% to 42%) and Santorum by 18 points (57% to 39%). Obama’s advantage among women voters, while largely unchanged from a month ago, remains substantial – 20 points over Romney and 26 points over Santorum.
Romney, who came in third last night twice, still has Illinois ahead next week to reclaim some momentum. However, if you look at the numbers, the public seems pretty clear on who they think wins in November. Obama is widely viewed as likely to defeat either Romney or Santorum in November.
Nearly six-in-ten registered voters (59%) say that Obama is likely to prevail if the election is between Obama and Romney; just 32% expect Romney to win. About seven-in-ten (68%) say that Obama is likely to beat Santorum, if he becomes the GOP nominee.Interestingly, there's not much confidence in their own candidates from Republicans. Only 60 percent of Republicans think Romney would win in November, and an astoundingly low 46 percent of Republicans think Santorum would win. Note that, because when the analysts (including this one) say Santorum would be the weaker candidate, it's because of data like this.
Here are some other fundamental information points from this data rich poll: The GOP primary continues to hurt the GOP, and a major reason Obama does well despite indifferent preception on the economy is that Obama is liked while his opposition is not:
In the current survey, just 29% of Americans say they have a favorable view of Romney, while 51% say they have an unfavorable impression. In November, opinions about Romney were more closely divided (36% favorable vs. 42% unfavorable). Santorum’s image has grown much more negative in the past month alone: 27% say they have a favorable view of Santorum, while 44% view him unfavorably. In February, about as many said they had a favorable opinion as an unfavorable one (33% vs. 36%).Speaking of favorable, check out the R versus D graph.
Obama’s personal image remains much more favorable than either Romney’s or Santorum’s. Currently, 56% of Americans say they have a favorable impression of Obama while 41% have an unfavorable view.
It'll be harder for the GOP to win with a party and candidates the public dislikes, and it's hard to imagine what the Republicans can do about it. Romney simply is unlikeable. Period. Santorum, on the other hand, is scary radical. While the race remains close and not a blow-out, Obama is in the stronger position for November.