Skip to main content

Despite the (Wait. Wasn’t Obama Winning?) premature celebration from conservatives over the statistical noise of the recent CBS/NY Times and ABC/Washington Post polls showing a slight drop in Obama's approval ratings, Pew joins Reuters (Obama's approval rating up to 50 percent: Reuters/Ipsos poll) in showing considerable strength for Obama's position:

Mitt Romney has retaken a significant lead nationally in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, even as he has fallen further behind Barack Obama in a general election matchup. Moreover, Obama’s own job approval rating has reached 50% for the first time since last May, shortly after the killing of Osama bin Laden...

Among all voters, Obama leads Romney by 12 points (54% to 42%) and Santorum by 18 points (57% to 39%). Obama’s advantage among women voters, while largely unchanged from a month ago, remains substantial – 20 points over Romney and 26 points over Santorum.


Romney, who came in third last night twice, still has Illinois ahead next week to reclaim some momentum. However, if you look at the numbers, the public seems pretty clear on who they think wins in November. Obama is widely viewed as likely to defeat either Romney or Santorum in November.
Nearly six-in-ten registered voters (59%) say that Obama is likely to prevail if the election is between Obama and Romney; just 32% expect Romney to win. About seven-in-ten (68%) say that Obama is likely to beat Santorum, if he becomes the GOP nominee.
Interestingly, there's not much confidence in their own candidates from Republicans. Only 60 percent of Republicans think Romney would win in November, and an astoundingly low 46 percent of Republicans think Santorum would win. Note that, because when the analysts (including this one) say Santorum would be the weaker candidate, it's because of data like this.

Here are some other fundamental information points from this data rich poll: The GOP primary continues to hurt the GOP, and a major reason Obama does well despite indifferent preception on the economy is that Obama is liked while his opposition is not:

In the current survey, just 29% of Americans say they have a favorable view of Romney, while 51% say they have an unfavorable impression. In November, opinions about Romney were more closely divided (36% favorable vs. 42% unfavorable). Santorum’s image has grown much more negative in the past month alone: 27% say they have a favorable view of Santorum, while 44% view him unfavorably. In February, about as many said they had a favorable opinion as an unfavorable one (33% vs. 36%).

Obama’s personal image remains much more favorable than either Romney’s or Santorum’s. Currently, 56% of Americans say they have a favorable impression of Obama while 41% have an unfavorable view.

Speaking of favorable, check out the R versus D graph.

It'll be harder for the GOP to win with a party and candidates the public dislikes, and it's hard to imagine what the Republicans can do about it. Romney simply is unlikeable. Period. Santorum, on the other hand, is scary radical. While the race remains close and not a blow-out, Obama is in the stronger position for November.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site