Welcome to the latest edition of "select your own meme" Wednesday here at the Polling Wrap! If you want to say that Democrats should be wary, and that Barack Obama is no better than a coin flip to be re-elected, we have a poll for that. If you want to say that Democrats should be calm, because the president is on the verge of a Reagan-esque landslide, we have a poll for that, as well.
There is a ton of data out there over the past day or two (the Wrap last night having been pre-empted for the Deep South bludgeoning of Mitt Romney primary elections), so let's dispense with the pleasantries and try to wade through the pile.
GOP PRIMARY POLLS:
NATIONAL (Bloomberg/Selzer): Romney 37, Santorum 27, Gingrich 11, Paul 7
NATIONAL (Fox News): Romney 38, Santorum 32, Gingrich 13, Paul 12
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 33, Santorum 27, Gingrich 16, Paul 11
NATIONAL (Pew Research): Romney 33, Santorum 24, Gingrich 20, Paul 14
NATIONAL (Reuters/Ipsos): Romney 37, Santorum 32, Gingrich 12, Paul 11
CALIFORNIA (Rasmussen): Romney 43, Santorum 23, Gingrich 15, Paul 8
LOUISIANA (WWL-TV): Santorum 25, Romney 21, Gingrich 20, Paul 6
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Romney 31, Santorum 27, Gingrich 24, Paul 8
PENNSYLVANIA (PPP): Santorum 43, Romney 25, Gingrich 13, Paul 9
PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac): Santorum 36, Romney 22, Paul 12, Gingrich 8
TEXAS (Rasmussen): Romney 32, Santorum 30, Gingrich 19, Paul 9
TEXAS (Wilson Perkins Allen): Santorum 35, Romney 27, Gingrich 20, Paul 8
GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Bloomberg/Selzer): Obama tied with Romney (47-47); Obama d. Paul (48-43); Obama d. Santorum (50-44); Obama d. Gingrich (52-41)
NATIONAL (Fox News): Obama d. Romney (46-42); Obama d. Paul (50-38); Obama d. Santorum (51-39); Obama d. Gingrich (53-35)
NATIONAL (Investors Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP): Obama d. Romney (46-41); Obama d. Santorum (47-38); Obama d. Paul (49-36); Obama d. Gingrich (51-34)
NATIONAL (Pew Research): Obama d. Romney (54-42); Obama d. Santorum (57-39)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (46-44); Obama d. Santorum (45-44)
NATIONAL (Reuters/Ipsos): Obama d. Santorum (52-42); Obama d. Romney (52-41); Obama d. Gingrich (54-37)
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (49-46); Obama d. Santorum (49-44); Obama d. Paul (48-41); Obama d. Gingrich (51-42)
PENNSYLVANIA (PPP): Obama d. Santorum (48-46); Obama d. Paul (47-41); Obama d. Romney (49-42); Obama d. Gingrich (51-39)
PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Santorum (45-44); Obama d. Paul (45-40); Obama d. Romney (46-40); Obama d. Gingrich (50-37)
A few thoughts, just past the jump.
This is one of those weeks where anyone who makes their living off of cherry picking polls could offer spin to their heart's content. And, as you can imagine, Twitter has been full of it (so to speak).
Those on the left have been breathlessly tweeting the Pew and Reuters polls to their hearts content, while those on the right have been getting after the ABC/WaPo poll from earlier in the week, or falling back on their old stand-by (Rasmussen).
Of course, by definition, somebody has to be off on this one. For what it is worth, my gut tells me that the truth, in this case, lies somewhere in the middle. I cannot imagine that a president whose approval ratings average in the mid-to-upper 40s is really beating all comers by double digits. Hell, we haven't had a double-digit margin of victory in a presidential race in a generation. That said, I also don't think that a field of Republican candidates that has net negative ratings are leading a Democratic president that is right at parity in his job approval numbers, either.
I'll try to avoid the lightning strike from above for saying this, but that Fox News poll (Obama +4 over Romney, leading the others by wider margins) feels about right to me.
Meanwhile, on the primary elections front, what will be interesting to see is not today's polls on the state of the GOP race, but the polls by the weekend. Do those ambivalent about a Romney candidacy reassert themselves, giving Santorum a third bump of momentum, or does the rough stability that has been the norm over the last two weeks hold in the wake of last night's results?
Illinois, on deck, might be a good microcosm of the race nationally. A weekend poll by Market Shares Corporation (for WGN and the Chicago Tribune) gave Romney a 35-31 lead over Rick Santorum. Romney advocates noted that he was behind prior to Florida and Ohio, and pulled ahead at the wire. With a lead, they reasoned, he should pull away from Santorum.
The difference, of course, is that Romney had momentum-inducing events that drove those pre-Florida and pre-Ohio surges. In Florida, it was the debate. In Ohio, it was the Michigan-Arizona primary night. This time around, there is nothing to drive that surge. Quite the opposite—any media discussion of momentum is going to center on Rick Santorum, not Mitt Romney.
As much as his spin doctors breathlessly assert otherwise (aided and abetted by some stunningly bad political analysis by folks who should know better), Romney's performance last night was a pretty stunning underachievement. Despite the early lowering of expectations (the "away game" line and all that), Romney and crew then proceeded to go "all-in" on both Alabama and Mississippi. And they got beat. Not in the delegate count, but in the popular vote, and (most importantly) the public conversation.
It is hard to imagine this won't impact polling data, as soft Romney supporters weigh the determination that this race might not be over after all, and soft Santorum supporters are revitalized. I'd be surprised if Santorum does not tighten the gap nationally by the weekend, and pull even or ahead in Illinois.
Surely, to the never-ending chagrin of Republicans, this thing looks a lot further from being "done" than it did on Monday.