Republicans eagerly awaiting the consolidation of support around their presidential frontrunner, Mitt Romney, got dealt a tiny setback this week, didn't they?
Romney not only failed to win either of the Deep South primaries this week, he came in third place in both of them, a disastrous outcome that was counter to most of the pre-primary predictions that were floating around. A solid victory in Hawaii, coupled with victories last weekend in a series of territorial caucuses, means that Romney will come into this week with a wider lead in the delegate count than he had prior to the twin bronze medals he hauled out of Alabama and Mississippi.
However, it sure as Hell doesn't feel that way, and Republicans praying for a quick resolution to their nomination fight have to be hurtling toward despondence at this point.
Meanwhile, on the general election front, it is not hard to find an election poll this week to fit any meme. Whether you think that the mess of a GOP primary has made Barack Obama a near-lock for re-election, or you think that continuing uncertainty over the economy, coupled with the spike in gas prices, could render the president vulnerable, we have a poll this week to buttress your argument. Hell, you could buttress either argument just with the daily tracking poll by Rasmussen, which shifted eight points over the past two days.
All that, plus plenty of goings-on downballot, grace the "March Madness"/"my bracket is already dead" edition of the Weekend Digest.
THE BATTLE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
THE REPUBLICAN FIELD: As polls trickled in at the close of the week, I will confess to at least a little bit of surprise at the state of the numbers. Given that Rick Santorum notched a pair of victories in the Deep South that were, by most metrics, a bit of a surprise, one would have expected that the former Senator would make (yet another) run at Mitt Romney's position at the front of the GOP field.
Instead, the rather limited pile of data that has come since Tuesday has had Mitt Romney holding steady in national polling, and actually incrementally expanding his lead in the next big contest on the docket (the Illinois primaries, due up on Tuesday). What seems pretty evident at this point is that while the GOP electorate may not be ready to give Santorum the keys to the car, they are still far from sold on their presumptive standard bearer. He still has done no better than 38 percent in the national Gallup tracking poll at any point, and rarely has been at or above 40 percent in any national polling. He can make jokes and tweak Newt Gingrich for the observation, but there is no way to look at the polling, and look at the actual election results to date, and not see "weak frontrunner."
NATIONAL (ABC/Washington Post): Romney 33, Santorum 29, Gingrich 14, Paul 12
NATIONAL (Bloomberg/Selzer): Romney 37, Santorum 27, Gingrich 11, Paul 7
NATIONAL (CBS News): Santorum 34, Romney 30, Gingrich 13, Paul 8
NATIONAL (Fox News): Romney 38, Santorum 32, Gingrich 13, Paul 12
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 36, Santorum 28, Gingrich 13, Paul 10
NATIONAL (Pew Research): Romney 33, Santorum 24, Gingrich 20, Paul 14
NATIONAL (Reuters/Ipsos): Romney 37, Santorum 32, Gingrich 12, Paul 11
CALIFORNIA (Rasmussen): Romney 43, Santorum 23, Gingrich 15, Paul 8
ILLINOIS (Chicago Tribune/Market Shares): Romney 35, Santorum 31, Gingrich 12, Paul 7
LOUISIANA (WWL-TV): Santorum 25, Romney 21, Gingrich 20, Paul 6
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Romney 31, Santorum 27, Gingrich 24, Paul 8
PENNSYLVANIA (PPP): Santorum 43, Romney 25, Gingrich 13, Paul 9
PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac): Santorum 36, Romney 22, Paul 12, Gingrich 8
TEXAS (Rasmussen): Romney 32, Santorum 30, Gingrich 19, Paul 9
TEXAS (Wilson Perkins Allen): Santorum 35, Romney 27, Gingrich 20, Paul 8
LOOKING AHEAD TO NOVEMBER: I will say this about once in a lifetime, but the best microcosm for this week's polling on the November showdown for the White House may well emanate from the House of Ras.
Not because Rasmussen was "ahead of the curve," or anything like that. It was their polls were so freaking jacked up this week, which was a perfect characterization of this week's data examining the state of play in the battle of Obama versus the Republicans.
A cursory glance at the history of their tracker shows that in the past 10 days, they have gone from an Obama lead of seven points, to a Romney lead of five points, and back to an Obama lead of six points. That seems, shall we say, more than a bit volatile.
Indeed, the lack of cohesion in the numbers this week was comical, especially as pollsters worked hard to match their numbers to some compelling rationale. When ABC/WaPo showed Mitt Romney with a two-point edge early in the week, the chattering classes solemnly declared that escalating gas prices were going to be the undoing of the president. But when, on Wednesday, Pew had Obama leading by double digits? Unless gas prices dipped a buck or two a gallon in two days, those were hard numbers to reconcile.
With polls this week (if one includes the Rasmussen tracker) that ranged in their outcomes by 18 points, legitimate conclusions were a bit hard to draw. If one looks at the state polls, however, they seem to suggest an Obama lead, although perhaps a modest one. As I noted earlier this week, it is hard for me to buy Obama trailing nationwide, but leading in North Carolina and Florida.
NATIONAL (ABC/Washington Post): Romney d. Obama (49-47); Obama d. Santorum (49-46)
NATIONAL (Bloomberg/Selzer): Obama tied with Romney (47-47); Obama d. Paul (48-43); Obama d. Santorum (50-44); Obama d. Gingrich (52-41)
NATIONAL (CBS/New York Times): Obama d. Romney (47-44); Obama d. Santorum (48-44); Obama d. Paul (49-39); Obama d. Gingrich (52-38)
NATIONAL (Fox News): Obama d. Romney (46-42); Obama d. Paul (50-38); Obama d. Santorum (51-39); Obama d. Gingrich (53-35)
NATIONAL (Investors Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP): Obama d. Romney (46-41); Obama d. Santorum (47-38); Obama d. Paul (49-36); Obama d. Gingrich (51-34)
NATIONAL (Pew Research): Obama d. Romney (54-42); Obama d. Santorum (57-39)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (46-44); Obama d. Santorum (45-44)
NATIONAL (Reuters/Ipsos): Obama d. Santorum (52-42); Obama d. Romney (52-41); Obama d. Gingrich (54-37)
"CORE STATES"* (Rasmussen): Santorum d. Obama (48-44); Obama d. Romney (46-42)
FLORIDA (Rasmussen): Obama d. Santorum (45-43); Obama d. Romney (46-43)
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (49-46); Obama d. Santorum (49-44); Obama d. Paul (48-41); Obama d. Gingrich (51-42)
PENNSYLVANIA (PPP): Obama d. Santorum (48-46); Obama d. Paul (47-41); Obama d. Romney (49-42); Obama d. Gingrich (51-39)
PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Santorum (45-44); Obama d. Paul (45-40); Obama d. Romney (46-40); Obama d. Gingrich (50-37)
(*)—"Core states" defined as Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
AT THE POLLS: While PPP was busy polling the presidential state of play in Pennsylvania, they also gave us some insight into the state of the Senate race there, as well. The conventional wisdom on this race has long been that incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey's numbers were decent, but that the margins would narrow considerably once the largely undefined GOP field became better known. Well, it is only March, but that narrowing has not happened yet. Indeed, Casey's leads over the GOP field are actually a tad wider than they were last November. Then, his leads ranged from 11-16 points. Today, Casey holds leads between 15-20 points. Notably, the establishment choice of the GOP (businessman Steve Welch) does the worst, trailing 49-29. The toughest out for the GOP, at least right now, is teabag-ish former state legislator Sam Rohrer, who trails 49-34. Meanwhile, the Quinnipiac crew was also in Pennsylvania this week, though they didn't bother with matching Casey against the assembled GOP field. Instead, they paired him with "Republican Jesus", also known as a "generic" Republican opponent. In a sign that Casey may fare just fine when the GOP field shakes out, Casey held a 46-34 lead over G.R.
Meanwhile, given the numbers they're spinning, it looks like it is time to once again confine Rasmussen to their own wing in the Senate polling summary. If you buy stock in the House of Ras, one would have to assume that not only is the GOP on their way to a majority in the Senate, they'll probably net 60 seats. Shit, Tom Carper might not be safe, based on the numbers we see emanating from the House. Unless, of course, you buy Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill down 51-41 to Sarah Steelman in Missouri. Or Republican Connie Mack up 43-36 over Sen. Bill Nelson in Florida. The only one where Ras isn't on an island is Arizona, where their double-digit lead for Republican Jeff Flake (47-34) over Democrat Richard Carmona is in line with other polls of the race.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Voter fraud! ACOOOOOOORN! In Marion County (Indiana), the county elections board took decisive action this week to prevent someone from voting in the county, despite not having lived at the address claimed on the voter registration form for nearly three decades. The potentially fraudulent voter in question? None other than longtime Republican Sen. Dick Lugar. You'll recall that Lugar's very ability to run in the state came in question, since he has not actually lived in the state in decades (he does own a farm in the state, however, though he does not actually live there). This move, by the Democratic board majority, was more a symbolic tweak of the nose than anything of tangible value: the state has already declared his candidacy for re-election valid, despite the residency concerns.
- With the filing deadline passing this week, we finally have a very clear picture of the state of play in Maine, the seat which became a top-tier pickup opportunity for Democrats when GOP Sen. Olympia Snowe announced her retirement. In a bit of an ironic twist, the Democrats that eventually did file was the same raft of longshot candidates that had already been eyeing the race before Snowe's surprise retirement. Former Maine secretary of state Matt Dunlap filed, as did a pair of state legislators (Sen. Cynthia Dill and Rep. Jon Hinck), and home builder Jonathan Pollard. Republicans have a real clown car developing on their side, with a sextet of potential competitors. Arguably the best known Republicans in the field are the current Maine secretary of state (Charlie Summers) and Maine state treasurer Bruce Poliquin. Of course, the best known name in the mix is the Independent candidate, former Governor Angus King. King, for his part, is once again playing very coy about his intentions should he win in November (and he'd be the betting favorite, for sure).
- The field of challengers for popular Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in New York expanded ... and then contracted ... over the course of this week. Recently elected Republican Rep. Bob Turner, whose district was ginsu'ed beyond all recognition in redistricting, decided to make a Senate bid rather than a longshot bid in one of the adjacent House districts. But then, on Friday, he barely made the cut at the state convention, where delegates forwarded three names onto the primary ballot. Turner, despite his status as a member of Congress, actually ran third on the convention floor. Conservative activist Wendy Long took 47 percent of the vote, well ahead of Nassau County official George Maragos (27 percent) and Turner, who just barely met the 25 percent threshold needed to make the ballot. Earlier in the day, potential self-funder Joe Carvin bailed on the race, after having been in the mix for little more than two weeks.
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: It's a bit rare for a poll to serve as both a primary and a general election poll at the same time, but such is the case in California, where the "everyone in the pool" open primary that was recently adopted means that we can gain insight into both elections. This week, we got one of our first glimpses into California House polling. Alas, it was in one of the less competitive districts, the open desert district (CA-08) left open when Rep. Jerry Lewis decided not to run here. A poll for GOP contender Angela Valles put her in position to earn a spot in the "top two", which is essential for gaining entry into November's general election. The new format puts the top two votegetters, regardless of party, into the general election. If the election were held today, Democrat Jackie Conaway would pace the field at 18 percent, with Valles and San Bernardino County commissioner Brad Mitzelfelt tied at 15 percent. Before Democrats get enthused about a surprise pickup, though, please note that Democrats combined for just 30 percent in the poll, while the raft of GOP hopefuls combined for 63 percent. Independent Anthony Adams, a former Republican, was well back in the field at 7 percent. Which means the poll has no undecideds. Which seems more than a tad unlikely, now doesn't it?
We also have some polling of the primary election variety, starting with one of a hotly contested race this coming week. If you are looking for the "race to watch" in Illinois this week, any objective observer would have to point to the incumbent-on-incumbent battle in the heavily Republican confines of IL-16. It is a generational battle, with veteran Donald Manzullo doing battle with freshman Rep. Adam Kinzinger, who was all of 12 years of age the first time Manzullo sought a seat in Congress. A new poll by We Ask America gives Manzullo an incremental edge (43-42) over Kinzinger. This is actually a reversal from the previous WAA poll, which had Kinzinger leading by thirteen. There are a number of great House primaries on tap this Tuesday, but this looks to be the closest one.
Another Illinois primary that might not be as close as previously believed, if this internal poll is any indicator, is the Democratic primary in IL-10. In this blue-tinted district represented by freshman Republican Rep. Bob Dold (!), activist Ilya Sheyman released a new poll for his campaign conducted by PPP showing him up 45-27 on businessman Brad Schneider. The two other contenders in the field (my favorite name in the race—John Tree—and Vivek Bavda) are still mired in the single digits, according to the poll.
Speaking of uncompetitive Democratic primaries in Illinois, it looks like any concern that the shifting boundaries of IL-02 had rendered veteran Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. vulnerable appears to be unfounded. A new poll for JJJ's campaign shows him with an enormous lead (59-23) over former Democratic Rep. Debbie Halvorson, who saw some of her suburban base drawn into the new 2nd district. Even Halvorson's internal polling (which we haven't seen since January) had her down, albeit by a considerably smaller margin.
Another high profile poll comes out of a key April contest: the Democrat-on-Democrat incumbent face off in PA-12. It is there that Democrat Jason Altmire's new poll (conducted by Anzalone-Liszt) gives him an even wider lead than before over fellow Democratic Rep. Mark Critz. The new poll has him up 55-31, a margin that is eight points wider than a January survey of the same race.
We also got a poll of a competitive primary in May, as well. In NC-07, there is the potential for a top-tier primary between 2010 GOP nominee Ilario Pantano and the guy who the lege tried to tailor this district for: state senator David Rouzer. Pantano's poll, conducted for him by Wenzel Strategies, gave him a wide lead (47-23) over Rouzer. Time to see if Rouzer responds with a poll of his own in the coming weeks.
Finally, in the "you polled this race ... why?" category, fans of former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter will be comforted to know that she is in the driver's seat in the Democratic primary in NH-01. In a poll released this week (and apparently commissioned by the DCCC), she held a tight little ... um ... 87-5 lead over Joanne Dowdell.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Few retirements in Congress qualify as legitimate surprises. This, however, was one of those legit head-turners. On Thursday, veteran Rep. Gary Ackerman (NY-06) decided to hang it up after three decades in the House. A person of Ackerman's long tenure in the House retiring is not a gigantic shocker, but Ackerman had given every indication that he was running again. Indeed, hours before Ackerman announced his retirement, Democratic state assemblyman Rory Lancman, who had originally announced a House bid in the old 9th district before redistricting thrust him into the new 6th, dropped his bid. When Ackerman bounced, Lancman quickly re-entered the race, though it seems certain that he will now have company in his 60 percent-plus Democratic district.
- If you missed it last week on Sunday Kos, David Jarman earned his merit badge for number crunching, by taking on the herculean task of attempting to quantify which members of Congress vote more or less progressive than their districts would seem to suggest. Worth a click, as always.
- Finally, in the hyper-competitive Democratic primary in CA-30 between incumbents Howard Berman and Brad Sherman, we had a regular whodunit this week. Earlier this week, our man David Nir donned his detective's hat to try to determine what should have been a simple question: who, if anyone, did influential fellow Rep. Loretta Sanchez endorse in this tight and contentious battle? If you click the link, you'll see the answer isn't as easy to divine as you might think!
THE BATTLE FOR THE STATE HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: When is a double-digit lead good news? When it is quite a bit tighter than the previous double-digit margin, with a less amenable sample. Such was the verdict of the new PPP poll out of North Carolina, where Republican Pat McCrory still leads the Democratic field in the open gubernatorial race to replace Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue. McCrory leads former Democratic Rep. Bob Etheridge by a 46-36 margin, which is five points closer than a PPP survey in late January. Democratic Lt. Gov Walter Dalton is also closer to McCrory than before, with a 46-35 deficit when paired with McCrory. Notably, however, this sample was actually a little less amenable to Democrats than the previous one. The January survey was near even in preferring (in general terms) a Republican governor or a Democratic one. In this survey, Generic Republican beat Generic Democrat 46-42.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- In a year long battle for control of the state Senate in Wisconsin, a earth-shaking shift occurred at the end of the week, with the news that Wisconsin Republican Sen. Pam Galloway, a recall target, intended to resign from the state Senate. The circumstances (health maladies within her family) were unrelated to the pending recall election against her. Said election, for what it is worth, will go on as scheduled, with prospective candidates needing to attain 400 signatures in a roughly two-week span at the start of April in order to secure place on the ballot.
- Speaking of the Wisconsin recall elections, we now have set dates for these high profile political contests. Primary elections will occur on May 8th, with the actual recall contests taking place on June 5th.
- Last week, I told you about the best campaign biography ever, courtesy of longshot Republican gubernatorial challenger Neil Livingstone. He attempted some pushback this week, proclaiming that his wife was with him when he was on that "yacht with hookers" that he boasted about in his campaign bio. Indeed, he took pain to note she was the only "non-hooker" on the boat! At the end of this week, however, the story for the GOP longshot from Montana just. Got. Better.
THE ELECTIONS DIGEST “AIR BALL” OF THE WEEK AWARD
Sure...the easy move would be to award the Air Ball without debate to Mitt Romney for that epic fail of Southern-fried pandering that captivated voters in Alabama and Mississippi to the tune of ... a pair of third-place finishes. But we already awarded that to him last week, and there are a raft of challengers eager to seize the crown. Indeed, the common theme for this week is: "What the Hell were YOU thinking?!"
Gov. Tom Corbett (R-PA): I know ... I know. Corbett is not up for re-election for another 32 months. That said ... my lord. "Just close your eyes", Governor? Really?! Schmuck.
Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY): Daily Kos Elections head honcho David Nir often notes in redistricting disputes that it is anathema to vote for the other side's gerrymander. So what level of suck do you ascend to when you sign the other guy's gerrymander? That's what Cuomo did this week, for little explicable reason. He didn't get the redistricting reforms he seemed to be insisting on all year (accepting instead a substitute process which is exceedingly unlikely to deliver on real reforms), and he appears to have handed the GOP perpetual control over the state Senate (the partisan makeup of the heavily Democratic state Assembly has not been in doubt for decades). But, he'll probably keep his approval ratings nice and high with Republicans (his cross-partisan appeal is unnaturally high for a statewide official, which is why his overall job approval numbers are always as gaudy as they are).
House candidate Dan Dolan (R-IA): This guy gets nominated not for the evil variety of "what the Hell were YOU thinking", but rather the mildly amusing brand. Dolan walked into the Monroe County Courthouse in Albia, Iowa last weekend. He began delivering his standard address to the Republican county convention crowd. The response was a polite, but rather stunned, silence. That might have had something to do with the fact that Dolan was talking the county Democratic convention, which was being held at the same venue, roughly two hours prior to the Republican convention. To their considerable credit, Dolan and the Democratic crowd both took the errant guest appearance in stride. But, man ... that must have been the most awkward 10-20 minutes of Dolan's young political career.
Former Sen. Rick Santorum (Republicano de Pennsylvania): How does one say "you needlessly and irrevocably screwed yourself, dumbass" in Spanish? Nothing like celebrating an unlikely and welcome pair of victories by completely pissing away any chance of winning the next contest on the docket!