for 2012 presidential election. The economy is MOVING. Obama is the incumbent and is an excellent campaigner.
Obama has been preparing for Mitt Romney for months. I am confident he will launch devatasting ads of Romney, particularly when he makes more gaffes. Furthermore, incumbents historically win by a bigger margin than in their first term election. Incumbents in an improving economy historically win big.
Given these unique circumstance in this cycle, there is no sugarcoating that there is 45% that will vote GOP because the republicans will vote nearly uniformly (cult-like) with mittens because they hate obama so much and have their "own version of America". Also, there is a sizaeable chunk of un-affiliated voters who just vote against their own interests no matter what (partly because they just hate obama or just brain-dead stupid).
45% will vote for Obama. He has a good floor.
That leaves 10% undecided. I really believe the undecided can be persuaded easily to vote for Obama and sanity. When juxtaposed with devastating ads from Obama and an aggressive push to get all the Latinos, African Americans, and women, etc, I really think Obama can win better in 2012 than in 2008.
Arizona is more than doable because of the hispanic population. Obama is winning women by 20 points in polls. In 2008, Obama won women by 13 points 56% to 43%. An improving economy will help get these voters out.
So what do you think?