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Leading Off:

MT-Sen: Denny Rehberg had better look in his "Rearviewmirror," because Jon Tester is getting some big-name fundraising help in the Montana Senate race from Pearl Jam. The legendary band is providing VIP status and an onstage seat at their Sept. 30 concert in Missoula for one lucky Tester contributor. (If you're wondering why I didn't go with a more obvious joke about Jon Tester still being "Alive" or being the "Better Man," Roll Call's Kyle Trygstad already beat us to the punch on both of those.) The Jon Tester/Pearl Jam partnership goes way back to Tester's previous Senate campaign in 2005, when they played a similar benefit concert for him; bassist Jeff Ament is, in fact, a neighbor of Tester's, having grown up in Tester's small farming community of Big Sandy.

Along these lines, there's also a benefit concert on tap in IL-08, to help out the Democratic candidate there, Tammy Duckworth. The featured entertainment? Joe Walsh! That's right... apparently the former Eagles guitarist and Rock and Roll Hall of Famer doesn't take kindly to seeing his name hijacked by a right-wing loudmouth. (David Jarman)

Senate:

AZ-Sen: Huh, this is pretty interesting. GOP Rep. Trent Franks will make an appearance at a campaign event for self-funding businessman Wil Cardon, who's challenging Franks' House colleague, Rep. Jeff Flake, in the state's open seat Senate primary. While Franks' office is declining to say whether or not this constitutes a formal endorsement, the congressman did allow the Cardon campaign to put out a rather glowing press release that suggests that an endorsement is surely imminent. (A sample of the language attributed to Franks: "Wil Cardon understands what Arizona needs in Washington.")

If you recall, though, this isn't the first time that Franks has shown his face at a Cardon event; back in May, Franks was billed as a "special guest" at one of Cardon's D.C. fundraising events. This story is noteworthy not necessarily because it will move many votes for Flake, but because it hints at some level of acrimony between the two House Republicans—and makes you wonder if Flake has pissed off other members of the establishment who might be tempted to side with Cardon. I'd love to know what the backstory is here. (James L)

HI-Sen: Merriman River Group for Civil Beat. 6/5-7. Likely primary voters. MoE: ±3.6% in Democratic primary, ±2.9% in general election (1/18-19 primary results, general results):

Mazie Hirono (D): 46 (39)
Ed Case (D): 46 (41)
Undecided: 8 (12)
Mazie Hirono (D): 49 (46)
Linda Lingle (R): 44 (39)
Undecided: 6 (9)

Ed Case (D): 52 (46)
Linda Lingle (R): 36 (33)
Undecided: 12 (9)

So, there's one weird thing about Merriman's new Hawaii poll: Even the general election portion is a test of likely primary voters. That's really a no-no, as we've discussed elsewhere recently, particularly with regard to a very dodgy North Dakota survey we dissected last month. The bottom line is that the composition of the electorate for a November general election always looks different than the makeup of voters who show up for primaries. The former draws in many more voters; the latter, only the most active and committed. So you can't get a good read on what will happen in the fall by talking only to those planning on casting a ballot in the dead of summer.

That said, when conservaDem Ed Case produced a similar-looking poll of the primary in May, the DSCC's executive director, Guy Cecil, responded by saying "everything I have seen suggests that Hawaii voters are strongly supporting Mazie Hirono by double digits in the primary and that she has the strongest chances of winning the general election." At this point, I think the onus is on the DSCC to produce some results which in fact show Hirono leading Case "by double digits" and also show her performing better against Lingle.

ND-Sen: Hmm. This seems like an odd move. North Dakota Democrats just released an internal poll taken for them about three weeks ago by their usual pollster, DFM Research, showing Heidi Heitkamp up 45-44 over GOP Rep. Rick Berg. I'm not sure why they'd do this, though, because Mason-Dixon just released an independent survey that had Heitkamp leading 47-46, so wouldn't you rather those results stay most fresh in the political world's consciousness, rather than those from an internal? What's more, an April poll from DFM (also for the ND Dems) gave Heitkamp a gaudier five-point lead, so what's to be gained from releasing a poll that in theory shows the race tightening? I'm a little confused.

NV-Sen, NV-Gov: Not much new to see in PPP's latest Nevada poll: GOP Sen. Dean Heller leads Dem Rep. Shelley Berkley 44-43. In April, it was 46-43 Heller. Tom Jensen also threw in a look ahead to the 2014 gubernatorial race:

Brian Sandoval might wish he could go ahead and run for reelection this year.

He continues to be a very popular Governor with 52% of voters approving of him to 28% who disapprove. Independents approve of him by a better than 2:1 margin (53/26) and a much higher than normal 35% of Democrats approve of him, almost as many as the 45% who don't.

We tested Sandoval in hypothetical match ups against Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto and Secretary of State Ross Miller. He leads Cortez Masto by 18 points, 51-33, and has a 22 point advantage over Miller at 50-28. Cortez Masto (47% name recognition) and Miller (36%) are relatively unknown to voters in the state. 2014 is a long ways off and it's impossible to say what the political climate or Sandoval's popularity will look like by then, but for now he's in a strong position.

PA-Sen: Quinnipiac's new poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race, which is actually their first to offer a direct head-to-head between Dem Sen. Bob Casey and Republican Tom Smith, shows Casey leading by a wide margin, as pretty much all reputable pollsters have. Casey's up 51-32 and demonstrates some healthy crossover appeal, pulling in 19% of Republicans while just 5% of Democrats defect to Smith. Casey's overall job approval remains good at 51-29, up slightly from 46-27 in March.

Gubernatorial:

NH-Gov: Though Ovide Lamontagne has done a good job of converting himself from "teabagging outsider" to "establishment insider" since his 2010 Senate run, here's one former congressman who isn't taking his side: Ex-Rep. Bill Zeliff just announced that he's endorsing conservative activist Kevin Smith, who is to this year's GOP gubernatorial contest what Lamontagne was to the Senate primary last cycle. It turns out, though, that Zeliff has quite a bit of history with Lamontagne: In 1992, when Zeliff was a freshman member of the House, Lamontagne unsuccessfully tried to primary him out of his newly-won seat. Four years later, though, Lamontagne managed to beat Zeliff for Republican nod in the governor's race, which Lamontagne later went on to lose to Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, who is now a senator.

House:

CT-05: When I saw that Rep. Carolyn Maloney had endorsed Dan Roberti in the CT-05 Democratic primary, I vaguely wondered what that was all about. After all, why would some random congresswoman from New York City stick her nose into a Connecticut congressional race, and why would Roberti even court her support? Well, here's the answer: Less than a week earlier, "Roberti's father, Vincent Roberti, held a fundraiser for her in Manhattan." Vincent Roberti co-sponsored the event hedge fund manager Jim Chanos at Chanos's home.

NY-13: A new PAC called "Campaign For Our Future", which The New York Daily News says is "spearheaded by the New York-based marketing group Protagonist," is dropping some serious coin against embattled Dem Rep. Charlie Rangel. The group just put out their first wave of a planned series of 100,000 mailers targeting Rangel in the Democratic primary while simultaneously boosting the candidacy of former White House aide Clyde Williams. (You can view a copy of the mailer, which plays up the fact that Obama declined to endorse Rangel, at the link.) The group is also planning a batch of Spanish-language mailers and robocalls, and says it will spend "hundreds of thousands of dollars" on the race.

The PAC also claims that it polled this race in May and found that "only 35% said Rangel's done a good enough job to deserve to stay in the House," though any other details on the poll were lacking. Pretty thin. (James L)

OK-02: This ad from Democrat Rob Wallace (which actually came out a couple of weeks ago) is the latest in the genre of "politician blasts inanimate object standing in for something they hate with gun." In Wallace's case, it's a map of Texas taped to a water cooler bottle. Why? Because there are "special interests trying to give away" Oklahoma's water to Texas.

Meanwhile, Republican Markwayne Mullin is out with yet another ad, though I can't figure out if he's doing an unusually heavy amount of advertising or if he's just particularly good at getting his spots places in Politico's newsletters. The narrator explains that Mullin's "top priority in Congress will be stopping Barack Obama's socialist agenda."

Other Races:

WI Recall: The Racine County Clerk just certified the results of last week's recall election in Wisconsin's 21st state Senate district, confirming Democrat John Lehman's win over Sen. Van Wanggaard. The final margin was 36,351 to 35,517, a difference of 834 votes. (It was 779 on election night.) Wanggaard is apparently still considering whether to request a recount, but Lehman's up by 1.2%, which is a very hard gap to overcome, especially since there were no reports of widespread voting problems. Once Lehman is seated, Democrats will formally take back control of the Senate.

Grab Bag:

Fundraising: This could be big: The Federal Elections Commission just authorized the use of text messages to make campaign contributions. In recent years, charitable donations via cell phones have become increasingly popular due to their extreme ease, so campaigns which adopt mobile contributions could potentially do very well.

Polltopia: PPP's opened up voting once again. I'm thinking either Connecticut (to check on that Quinnipiac poll that had some funky results) or Maine (where the primaries are now over, so we know both parties' nominees).

Redistricting Roundup:

Redistricting: With Kansas having finished its redistricting, Daily Kos Elections is happy to provide geographic redistricting data for all 50 states in one single file. If you're a GIS user, you can download the shapefile version (48MB). Otherwise, if you use Google Earth, you can download the KML version (32MB). Using the KML version is fairly resource-intensive, so loading and panning may be a bit slow. If that doesn't work, you can always use the state-by-state versions located with our complete redistricting resources. We'll update both the shapefile and KML with additional data as time goes on, but for now, the base geography is there. (We'll also release a .png/raster version shortly, for those of you who like to color along at home!) (jeffmd)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  So, PPP was off by 5 in AZ-8 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    R30A, kestrel9000, bear83, sulthernao

    Still not bad because house races are notoriously difficult to poll.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 05:12:46 AM PDT

    •  Flagged for not showing enough concern... (5+ / 0-)

      You need to show way more concern with PPP's polling to be acceptable here.  Reported to the administrators!

      ;-)

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 05:27:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thing is PPP has been reliable even (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv, kestrel9000, askew

        in special house elections, and more importantly, they have almost always skewed slightly repub until the last couple of major elections. That has been something to count on, and it is now in question.

      •  I'm less sanguine than you guys (5+ / 0-)

        So PPP was 4 points too Democratic in the WI-Gov recall margin, and 5 points too Democratic in the AZ-08 special election margin.  And they've had what look like Democratic-favoring outliers in some of their Presidential state polls, with no outliers going the other way, in favor of the GOP.

        That's what I see, and it points to a slight Democratic "house effect," as Nate Silver calls it.  And, indeed, Silver says explicitly on his NYT blog that PPP has a Dem house effect this cycle.

        None of this fully discredits PPP.  The final results in the Wisconsin and Arizona specials were within PPP's margin of error.  They have a good track record otherwise, and in fact had a very slight GOP house effect in the 2010 cycle and therefore can't be said to have an established Democratic bias.

        But I, for one, am inclined going forward to believe that if a PPP poll looks like a Democratic-favoring outlier, it probably is.  If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck...then it's probably a duck.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 07:03:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Is there a difference?? (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          PassionateJus, R30A, rja, askew

          PPP pretty much nailed the winning candidates % in AZ-08. I think they had 53% and Barber got 52%. That's pretty close to spot on. The difference was the spread. Kelly did about 5 points better.

          Does PPP have a democratic house effect if the undecideds just went to the chalenger? How were they supposed to assign the undecideds? If 92% of the people you polled gave you a preference and 8% said I don't know its hard to compare the poll to the actual results which always add up to 100%.

          I guess what I'm saying is if a pollster not only gets the winner right but also the winner's percentage isn't that pretty damn accurate? It would be different if the poll had Kelly down 4 but he won by 2. In that case the pollster didn't get the winner nor the winner's percentage but was still off by the same amount.

          I guess I'm in the camp that PPP seems to be doing a better job picking the winners and their winning % than the spread.

          Its like what my college baseball coach used to say after getting a cheap basehit. "A hit is a hit. They won't ask you to draw a picture of it tomorrow."

          •  PPP Also Good On SSM Props Too (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sapelcovits

            I notice that PPP has been accurate as far as the pro marriage equality side in the two state's they have polled in recent years. Any difference in the actual outcome vs the final poll seems to be undecideds breaking largely against marriage equality.

            ME Q1 PPP Nov 2, 2009
            Yes 51%
            No 47%

            Actual Vote
            Yes 53%
            No 47%

            NC Amend 1 PPP May 1, 2012
            Yes 55%
            No 41%

            Actual Vote
            Yes 61%
            No 39%

        •  PPP can basically always (0+ / 0-)

          nail either the margin or one candidate's %. They pretty much nailed Barrett's % and Barber's %.

          Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 12:34:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Specials are notoriously difficult (5+ / 0-)

      ... and the added factor of an election to replace someone who barely escaped assassination is something else again.  Particularly since the GOP candidate ran last time, too, with shooting range fundraisers for the purpose of "targeting" Giffords.

      There's really not a polling model to take all that into consideration.  Who'll show up to vote, and why.

      Grab all the joy you can. (exmearden 8/10/09)

      by Land of Enchantment on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 06:35:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Joe Walsh IS awesome. (8+ / 0-)

    The guitarist, of course, and not the "Congressman."

    "Turn to Stone" is one of my all-time favorites.

    28, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

    by TDDVandy on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 05:53:48 AM PDT

  •  Hmmph (5+ / 0-)

    I agree with Newt Gingrich on something? Wow:

    http://politicalwire.com/...

    22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

    by wwmiv on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 06:05:31 AM PDT

  •  SC-07 (5+ / 0-)

    How does throwing out all the Vick ballots not violate the 14th amendment? This has got to go to a runoff.

    SC is basically throwing those votes in the garbage and counting all the others

  •  Wait- South Carolina has a Democratic Party? (6+ / 0-)
  •  Media concern trolls having a field day (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Theston, JCPOK, sulthernao, askew

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    http://www.politico.com/...

    It wouldn't be a presidential campaign without unnamed "fretting Democrats."

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 06:47:11 AM PDT

    •  And You Haven't Even Touched Upon..... (0+ / 0-)

      ....the latest Josh Kraushaar concern trolling on National Journal, which I won't even bother to provide a link to.  It's the only issue he has written about in 2012 thus far.

      •  Kraushaar isn't a concern troll, he's a wingnut (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SLDemocrat, R30A, The Caped Composer

        Separately from being a wingnut, Kraushaar is also a dunce, incapable of any thoughtful political analysis.

        But his right-wing orientation is what shapes the direction of his idiocy, so that's equally relevant.

        But none of that is to be confused with concern trolling, which is what comes from people who are sometimes clear allies (Carville et al.), and sometimes people merely superficially passing as allies (Doug Schoen et al.).

        By the way, Kraushaar's previous gem was to declare a Republican wave election after Wisconsin recall and a GOP win in last night's AZ-08 special.  Well, so much for that!

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 07:10:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  My perspective on all this (8+ / 0-)

      What gets lost by people who live, breathe, and eat politics in daily and weekly news cycles is that good campaigns are built for long-term messaging and voter persuasion.  They're not built to spontaneously move polling.

      This is important to understanding what both Obama and Romney are doing right now.  They're not playing for the daily tracks or monthly polls, they're playing for November.

      Obama is planting seeds of distrust of Romney among swing voters that will stay with them into the voting booth.  The messaging on Romney's Bain and gubernatorial records isn't about driving up Mitt's unfavorables overnight, or growing an advantage in the horse race.  Indeed, to the extent the ads can affect the horse race, it's probably only to freeze it in place because superpacs are simultaneously attacking Obama in ads in the same states.  But that's OK, because a race frozen in place is advantage Obama, and also because freezing a race in place is still better than falling behind because the other side runs ads and ours doesn't.

      Remember Kerry's "I was for it before I was against it" gaffe?  How "flip flop" became monotonous?  How RNC convention delegates literally shook flip-flop footwear in the air on the floor in August to mock Kerry?  Well, guess what about Kerry's infamous quote:  it was in freakin' March!  But a seed was planted, and repeated unrelentingly all the same, all the way through.  And did that help Bush's poll numbers?  Nope, there was no detectable movement, either in the trial heat or in Kerry's favorables.  But it wasn't about that.  It was about planting seeds that made voters in the actual voting booth decide they just couldn't quite trust Kerry enough to pick him over Bush.

      That's what Obama is doing now.

      And Mitt is doing essentially the same thing, playing for November.  His superpac is running a ton of ads attacking Obama on the economy and on federal spending/deficits/debt.  Mitt is running some fluff ads about himself as someone who can fix the economy.  Chuck Todd reported that the Romney campaign people ignore criticism of the Donald Trump fundraiser because they think swing voters aren't paying attention and won't care come the fall.  I think that's probably right...for now.  All this is banking on an assumption that they can plant seeds of distrust of Obama among swing voters that will make them decide close to the election they can't stick with him, and that they're better off taking a flyer on Mitt despite whatever doubts they otherwise might have about him.

      Carville's Democracy Corps critique isn't as bad as the rest of it that's been out there.  He's at least basing it on focus group data and acknowledging that Obama's messaging to date is working.  But he's saying that's not quite enough...a debatable point, but not unfair or unreasonable on its face.  I have more of a problem with their conclusion that somehow voters are accepting a depressing new long-term economic reality that Obama must openly acknowledge.  I think that's wrong.  To the extent Obama talks of the future, it has to be optimistic, regardless of whatever pessimism and cynicism voters might have for now.  I don't think "sharing the gloom" helps Obama.  Carter sorta kinda tried that in his infamous "malaise speech" in 1980......and it helped defeat him.  I think Obama should act on an underlying assumption that the country's economy can get back to where it used to be.  Of course, I say that partly because that's what I actually believe...I think a few years from now we'll be back to prosperity, and in due time this recession will be largely forgotten.  I suppose if you don't think that, then you would think differently about the messaging this summer and fall.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 07:30:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I will be talking more about the piece (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Cali Scribe

      of toilet paper that is that Washington Post thing later. But I am an attention whore, so will be doing so on the other thread.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 07:53:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Just Horrible. Clinton Dems Start In-Fighting (0+ / 0-)

    Just an absolutely unbelievable and horrible development for Obama and all Dems.  Things start to go less than perfectly for Obama and certain "Democratic loyalist" start to publicly panic. This only undermines Obama and all Dems. Just horrible.

    Funny how all these "loyalist" - James Carville, Ed Rendell, Bill Clinton - are Clinton connected.  Even the reporter, Karen Tumulty, is the go-to reporter for Clinton leaks.

    Unbelievable.

    Trust-Fund Kids of America Unite... save the Bush tax cuts!

    by JCPOK on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 06:58:01 AM PDT

    •  It wouldn't be a presidential campaign (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      without beltway Democrats panicking.  And without Clintonite backstabbing.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 07:04:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Glad you can take it in stride. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ehstronghold, askew

        This is starting to look like choreographed sabotage now.  Booker, Rendell, Clinton himself, and now these douchebags.  They are making a power play to restore their Republican Light vision for the party, right in the middle of a fucking presidential election.  I want to punch these people in the face.  Obama cannot beat Mitt Romney and Bill Clinton.

        •  No, there's no such thing happening (7+ / 0-)

          These people don't choreograph anything.  Nor are they a "bloc" of people in any sense.

          They have in common only that they are part of an insular mentality common to the Acela corridor.  And that's a mentality motivated by fear.  Some of them, the ones who are old enough, were badly stung by the electoral horrors of the 80s when there were no blue states, only red and purple ones, and the 90s when only DLC Democrats were capable of being popular in an America where white voters were close to 90% of the electorate and had become hyperconservative.

          Then 2010 happens, and they think "here we go again."

          So they panic in unison, but it's not choreographed, and it's not with any goal of pushing the party in any particular direction.  It's just panic.

          As I've said before, this is why I'm glad OFA HQ is in Chicago, and it's why I think they always put it in Chicago, 4 years ago and again now.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 08:12:20 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The "mentality" you acknowledge (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Cali Scribe, askew

            is a unifying factor, and so is the relationship of all of these people to Clinton and the mercifully defunct DLC.  You're probably right that this is disorganized panic, but it is all with the goal of pushing the Obama campaign and the party towards actions that ease their precious little worries, like fellating Wall Street.  They are trying to push an agenda, even if doing so out of panic.

        •  I think it is less about ideology and more about (0+ / 0-)

          what's in the best interest of Clinton and their allies.  They don't care about anything else but their own self-interest.

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 10:19:42 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  You have a serious, serious blind spot... (0+ / 0-)

            when it comes to the Clintons.  A completely warped sense of reality.  Usually your comments show good reasoning and logic, but it all goes out the window when it comes to the Clintons.

            Thinks this through, and maybe you'll understand how ridiculous it is to think it is not in Clinton's self interest (or his wife's self interest) that Obama win a second term.

            BTW for those on this thread, when did Cory Booker or Steve Rattner (not mentioned by you all, but also part of the "message problem" crowd) become one of Clinton's allies?

  •  Polltopia for PPP (0+ / 0-)

    Current leaders for this week's poll:

    27% Colorado
    18% Oregon
    18% Washington

    I voted for Maine - let's see how far ahead King Angus is.

  •  Joe Walsh (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rja, TomFromNJ

    Not the former Eagles guitar, he still plays with them.

    Not even the "former James Gang" guitarist as they gig from time to time as well.

  •  Beltway response to Barber's win: ZZZZZZZZ (16+ / 0-)

    If Kelly had won AZ-08 would be getting front-page treatment in every Hill rag and the political blogosphere.  But apparently a Barber win means move along, nothing to see here.  Typical.

  •  (Mild nudge at Mark27) (0+ / 0-)

    I found an article that finally confirmed something I've felt for a long time about economics:

    http://jezebel.com/...

    Men Probably Too Hormonal and Moody to be Trusted with Important Financial Decisions:

    News from the world of science with some pretty grim implications for the global economy as it currently exists: men — rational, level-headed, decisionmaking men — aren't actually very well equipped to handle important financial decisions at all; it's like they're getting the male equivalent of their periods, but all the time. In fact, men are so beholden to their volatile hormones that their prominence in the world of finance may actually doom the whole system to inevitable, testosterone-fueled collapse.

    A new book postulates that the nature of financial markets combined with the physiological effects of testosterone make for a veritable clusterfuck of overreaction, which ends up exaggerating both good and bad news and artificially prolonging both booms and busts. This conclusion is based on research that analyzed traders' spit during several market sessions which found that men working in the high-risk, high-reward setting of the world of finance experience hormone fluctuations that could seriously interfere with their ability to make good decisions.

    Snip
    While multiple male hormones can interfere with rationality, the two that seem to be the culprits of the economic roller coaster are testosterone and cortisol. Testosterone, which is farmed locally in the nutsack, creates what biologists refer to as "the winner effect." In the wild, it causes males lions who win fights with other males to become inflated with confidence, which can eventually lead them to feel invincible and do something dumb like wander alone through open space so a bunch of beta males can attack him. In the market, the hormone could cause men to think that they're unstoppable winning machines and take similar stupid risks, like, say, writing uncovered options or loading up on housing stock at the 2007 pre-crash market peak.

    Another pesky side effect of temperamental hormones is cortisol, the hormone one's body produces during moments of fear and stress. Surprisingly, losing traders didn't feel daunted by losing tons of money like an animal may feel after being bested in an aggressive encounter, but they did start producing excesses of cortisol during periods of market volatility, which translated to a lingering, irrational fear of taking any risk at all. Hence elongated periods of stagnancy after periods of market nuttiness. Hence, now.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 07:59:38 AM PDT

    •  Seems Reasonable...... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      ...and I submit that the hormones driving irrational exuberance among males in general is even more prominent among males who gravitate to the finance industry.

      •  Jesus Christ bond rates (0+ / 0-)

        went up .5% in Spain! The government is having to restructure its debt and refinance it's banks. The entire economy is DOOMED! DOOM!! We need to hide all of our money under the bed and hire no one for the net 20 years!

        ....

        DOOOOOMMMM!! (I'm thinking a Mermaid man voice from Spongebob is in order. Who is played, by the way, by 95 year old 1955 Oscar for Best Actor winner Ernest Borgnine).

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 08:19:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm Surely Not Qualified To Know..... (0+ / 0-)

          .....what impact Spain's bond rates will have on the global economy.  It certainly doesn't seem like it would inspire cataclysm to me, but then I thought the same thing about Lehman Brothers going down in 2008.

          •  I'm merely venting my facetiousness (0+ / 0-)

            out on the world, so don't worry.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 12:08:54 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  But seriously, it also drives (0+ / 0-)

        irrational caution and negativity.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 09:49:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Pres Romney +3 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    savvyspy

    Even if you take into account Ras' R bias, this is not good.

    31/D/M/NY-01/SSP: Tekzilla

    by Socks The Cat on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 08:03:52 AM PDT

  •  Greeks (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    making a run for the banks and stocking up food ahead of Sunday's election. Wow.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    Obama/Biden 2012: Keep America moving forward not backwards.

    by ehstronghold on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 08:09:07 AM PDT

    •  Not new (3+ / 0-)

      It's been going on for two years.  And accelerated before the May election.  The Reuters piece is propaganda disquised as a news article.  Look at the people quoted.  All have an interest in New Democracy winning, and in drastic austerity being enforced.  Exepcted more of these scare stories in the MSM as the vote approaches.  

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 08:14:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  His Maserati goes 185... (6+ / 0-)

    Life's been good to him so far.

    I'll always be...King of Bain...I'll always be...King of Bain

    by AZphilosopher on Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 08:21:22 AM PDT

  •  Finally a reference to the Real Joe Walsh on dKos! (0+ / 0-)

    The Real Joe Walsh must really loathe seeing his name over and over in the context of wacko crazy lunacy. Good on him for standing up.

    Signed,
    I remember The James Gang...

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