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Forty Kansas Senate seats are being contested this year because of redistricting. Currently, the Kansas Senate breaks down to 8 Democrats and 14 moderate Republicans.  These 22 votes can block the remaining 18 conservative voting GOP Senators from implementing nearly 100% of Governor Sam Brownback’s agenda.  We’ll know tonight if enough conservatives survive and advance to have a chance for them to win complete control in November.

The marquee races for highly targeted Senators include moderates Owens 8th (chairman of Senate redistricting committee), Schodorf 25th, and Morris 39th (Senate Majority leader).

The 8th and 25th districts will be highly competitive in the general election should the moderate incumbent lose tonight.  Moderates upset at being thrown out of office will likely back the Democratic challenger.  There is no Democrat filed for the 39th.

New open seats held previously by high profile moderates and heavily targeted to flip to conservative include the 7th (Huntington retired) and 11th (Vratil retired). The 21st is a new JOCO district that has high profile conservative Greg Smith looking to move up from the House. These three open seats will also be highly competitive for the Democratic challenger if a conservative wins tonight.

Additional moderate incumbents targeted by conservatives included:

Marshall 13th
Longine 17th
Schmidt 20th
Reitz 22nd
Brungardt 24th
McGinn 31st
Teichman 33rd.  

The above districts have Democratic challengers in November except for the 31st and 33rd.

Umbarger was moved to the 15th and is getting moderate support against the other incumbent King. In the 35th, Emler has KNEA support against a young conservative challenger. No Democratic candidates filed here.

There are a handful of seats held currently by conservatives that with redistricting, are being challenged by moderates or otherwise open.  Those include the 1st, 10th, 12th, and 32nd.  

The 26th, 37th and 40th are held by conservatives now, but an even more “pure” conservative challenger is on the ballot. The open 14th is another district that could elect a more pure conservative.

GOP held seats with no primary opponents are the 6th, 9th, 16th, 23rd, 27th, 29th, 30th, 34th, and 38th.  Eight other districts are controlled by Democrats currently and today’s GOP primary will not impact those districts immediately.  

What’s defined as true conservative here?  It’s sold as strict constitutional tea party candidates supporting eliminating taxes, slashing spending and expanding natural gas drilling. Sounds like the national trend. However, to get the endorsement of conservative activist groups, the candidates also have to 100% in line with the old Christian conservative social agenda items like pro-life, traditional marriage, vouchers or home schooling, gun rights, anti-immigration, and anti-Sharia law.  If it’s Kansas, that also means the school board candidates are fighting about evolution again. A conservative website has locally rated the candidates and awarded “5 Chips” to those that pass all the litmus tests. Falling short in just one area would still make for a good conservative just about anywhere in the country, but now invites a primary fight from a more pure candidate in Kansas.

The math discussed in winning complete control of the Senate is to flip 4 to 6 seats, but it won’t be decided by the results in a few districts tonight.  We’ll tally the full scorecard when results are in. With so many new districts and new Democratic challengers in November, we will only know tonight if the conservatives have gained full control of the party, not of the full Senate and state agenda. To have a chance to win the Senate, the conservatives need to advance as many candidates as possible. 21 won’t do it and they probably need to see 28 to 30 candidates advancing tonight.    

The list below is all 40 districts and GOP primary opponents. Moderates with PAC support listed have received money or endorsements from former Governor Bill Graves, KNEA, or Realtor PAC.  Conservatives are getting support from Brownback and SOS Kobach, Americans for Prosperity, Club for Growth, Chamber of Commerce, Kansans for Life, NRA, and other usual suspects.

Let the purge being.

To see the district maps and other excellent data, check out KingofSpades' diary.

 
District
(HIGH PROFILE)
Candidate
(I=Incumbent)
Conservative Moderate Notes
1 – NE Kan (R) Dennis Pyle (I) Y – 5 Chip
Marje Cochren Y Mod Challenge
2 – Lawrence (D) Ronald Ellis
Jeremy Pierce
3 – Leavenworth (D) Anthony Brown
4 – KCK (D) Joe Ward Y – 5 Chip
5 – KCK (D) Mark Gilstrap Y – 5 Chip
Steve Fitzgerald Y – 5 Chip
6 - KCK (R) Chris Steineger (I) Chris was (D)
7 – JOCO (R) Open Kay Wolf Y Huntington (I) targeted & retired Con Challenge
David Harvey Y – 5 Chip
8 – JOCO (R) Tim Owens (I) Y - PAC Con Challenge
Jim Denning Y - CoC
9 – JOCO (R) Julia Lynn (I) Y Safe as con
10 – JOCO (R) Tom Wertz Y Mod Challenge
  Mary Pilcher-Cook (I) Y Likely safe con
11 – JOCO (R) Pat Colloton Y Vratil (I) targeted & retired
Jeff Melcher Y
12 – East Kan OPEN (R) Caryn Tyson Y Apple (I) now in 37th
John Coen Y – PAC Mod challenger
13 – Pittsburg (R) Bob Marshall (I) Y - PAC Con challenger
Jacob LaTurner Y – 5 Chip
14 – (R) Open, Mod moved to 15th John Grange Y - PAC Con challenger
Forrest Know Y – 5 Chip
15 – (R) King natural (I) Dwayne Umbarger (I) Y- PAC Moved from 14th
Jeff King (I) Natural incumbent
16 – Wichita (R) Ty Masterson (I) Y – 5 Chip
17 – Emporia (R) James Fawcett Y Con challenger
Jeff Longbine (I) Y - PAC
18 – Topeka (D) Dick Barta
Cristina Fischer Y – 5 Chip
Gary Parnell  
19 – Topeka (D) Mary Windeuser  
Casey Moore Y – 5 Chip
20 – Topeka (R) Vicki Schmidt (I) Y - PAC Con Challenge
Joe Patton Y
21 – JOCO (R) New Open Joe Beveridge Y New JOCO redistrict seat
Greg Smith Y – 5 Chip Smith was to challenge Owens in 8th
22 – Manhattan (R) Joe Knopp
Bob Reader Y Con Challenge
Roger Reitz (I)   Y – PAC  
23 – JOCO (R) Rob Olson (I)
24 – Salina (R) Tom Arpke Y – 5 Chip Con Challenge
Pete Brungardt (I) Y -PAC Leadership PAC
25 – Wichita (R) Jean Schodorf (I) Y - PAC Con Challenge
Michael O’Donnell Y – 5 Chip
26 – Haysville (R) Dan Kershen Y (Brownback taxes) Con Challenge
Dick Kelsey (I) Y – 5 Chip pending
27 – Wichita (R) Leslie Donovan (I)
28 – Wichita (R) Mike Petersen (I) November Race
Keith Humphrey Democrat Excellent pickup chance
29 – Wichita (D) Keyna Cox
30 – Wichita (R) Susan Wagle (I) Y – 5 Chip
31 – Wichita (R) Carolyn McGinn (I) Y Con Challenge
Gary Mason Y – 5 Chip
32 – Arkansas City (R) Miranda Allen Y Mod Challenge
Steve Abrams (I) Y – 5 Chip
33 – Stafford (R) Mitch Holmes Y – COC, etc. Con Challenge
Ruth Teichman (I) Y - PAC
34 – (R) Terry Bruce (I)
35 – Lindsborg (R) Jay Emler (I) KNEA Con Challenge
Jesse Bryant Y
36 – Concordia (D) Elaine Bowers Y
Kyle Abbott Y – 5 Chip
37 – JOCO (R) Charlotte O’Hara Y – 5 Chip Open seat, Con Merrick to House as Speaker
Pat Apple (I – 12th) Y – 75% Moved from the 12th
38 – (R) Garrett Love (I)
39 – SW Kan (R) Stephen Morris (I) Y Moderate Leader – Con Challenge
Larry Powell Y
40 – Rural Hays (R) Ralph Ostmeyer (I) Mostly conservative
John Miller Likely more conservative Running as “outsider”
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Comment Preferences

  •  Added DK Elections tag (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Says Who, gabjoh, Eric Blair

    as liveblog followers might want to check this diary out. You've done a nice job of spelling out who the moderates and conservatives are.

    Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

    by fearlessfred14 on Tue Aug 07, 2012 at 04:47:55 PM PDT

  •  Thanks for doing this diary! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Says Who, CF of Aus

    I'll be looking at this a lot tonight!  Great job!

    22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

    by Jeff Singer on Tue Aug 07, 2012 at 05:04:39 PM PDT

  •  Do you think Luker could win SD-1? (0+ / 0-)

    He represented territory more conservative than SD-1 as a whole when he was in the state house.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Aug 07, 2012 at 05:07:11 PM PDT

  •  By the way (0+ / 0-)

    What's the link to the "5 Chip" website?

    Political Director, Daily Kos

    by David Nir on Tue Aug 07, 2012 at 05:15:51 PM PDT

  •  Hate to be divisive... (0+ / 0-)

    unless it could educate Kansan women, workers, new voters, and families in general that a vote for Romney is expensive and self-defeating. He doesn't care. The Republican Party doesn't care.

    Vote your personal interest, Kansans!

    Willard Romney is ashamed of his tax returns and I can prove it!

    by Says Who on Tue Aug 07, 2012 at 05:16:53 PM PDT

  •  In the 22nd, ex-Rep. Tom Hawk (D) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ptgkc

    said he will vacate the race if and only if the incumbent Republican survives the primary.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Aug 07, 2012 at 05:42:24 PM PDT

    •  Team Hawk! (0+ / 0-)

      Tom Hawk held on for 3 terms in a very red state house district that's basically engulfed by SD-22. If anyone can capture this state Senate seat for Team Blue, it's him. Especially now that the moderate incumbent got turfed...

      Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

      by arealmc on Mon Aug 13, 2012 at 09:11:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  SD-5: Sore loser turncoat Mark Gilstrap failing (0+ / 0-)

    Good riddance.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Aug 07, 2012 at 06:26:40 PM PDT

  •  Superb work! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ptgkc, fearlessfred14, Eric Blair

    Repeating part of what I said on the liveblog

    The conservative insurgency among the Republicans appears to be doing quite well.

    Current State Senate Races at about 11:15 PM EST show

    8th Denning (conservative challenger) wins
    13th Laturner (conservative challenger) considerable lead
    17th Longbine (Moderate Incumbent) 3-2 lead
    20th Schmidt (moderate incumbent) slight lead
    22nd Reader (conservative challenger) 43-29 lead
    24th Arpka (conservative challenger) 56-44 lead
    25th ODonnel (conservative challenger) small lead
    26th Kerschen (even more conservative challenger of conservative) 60-40
    31st McGinn (moderate incumbent) 59-41 lead
    33rd Holmes (conservative challenger) 53-47
    39th Powell (conservative challenger) considerable lead over Senate Majority Leader

    At the moment that is a pickup of seven conservative challengers and one even more conservative challenger though counting is still proceeding.

    We can have change for the better.

    by phillies on Tue Aug 07, 2012 at 08:29:17 PM PDT

    •  Wow (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      phillies

      The mods got utterly boatraced. They should have switched to the Democratic Party when they still had a chance.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Tue Aug 07, 2012 at 09:33:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Been looking at the House and it's blood red. (0+ / 0-)

        All those open seats and conservatives just reloaded.

      •  But if they had switched (0+ / 0-)

        would their new party have welcomed them or primaried them out?

        And would the voters have bought the same person, or the same party?

        You can switch, but it is not trivial, and becomes easier when the incoming party has a scheme in advance for welcoming and supporting converts.

        We can have change for the better.

        by phillies on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 06:24:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  All good points (0+ / 0-)

          But with hindsight, it's hard to imagine switching working out more poorly than Tuesday did.

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 08:53:11 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Their new party (0+ / 0-)

          Had they switched, KS Dems would have welcomed them, I can almost guarantee that. After all, Senate moderates had basically been governing in a coalition with Democrats already. Plus KS Dems don't have a lot of options, since they're down to tiny minorities in both chambers.

          The general would've been harder for moderate incumbents without the (R) attached to their name, certainly. But if I were a moderate Republican, I'd rather face the general electorate as a Dem than just the narrow segment of Republican primary voters as a dreaded moderate.

          And David's right on--it couldn't have been worse than this bloodbath....

          Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

          by arealmc on Mon Aug 13, 2012 at 08:49:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Why do Dems have an "excellent" pickup chance in (0+ / 0-)

    SD-28?  Obama got 45% there, but is Humphrey that good a candidate?

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Aug 07, 2012 at 10:11:49 PM PDT

    •  He seems to have a surprisingly strong following (0+ / 0-)

      but it's late and I've not the energy to search further right now.

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Tue Aug 07, 2012 at 10:12:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not a wimpy D (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      Twitter profile: Candidate for the Kansas State Senate in the 28th District. Proud Dad, patriot, small aviation business owner, job creator, & decorated US Navy Veteran

      Can't be pegged as a military hating, job killing, SF style liberal.

      •  Good profile (0+ / 0-)

        That's basically an ideal profile for a Kansas Dem that Humphrey has. There are a couple others who've got a shot (Lisa Johnston, Tom Hawk, Steve Lukert, Mark Treaster, Michael Delaney, Mark Greene, Pat Pettey), but the odds of getting close to 20 are slim, sadly.  

        With only 2 or 3 moderate Republicans left, Democrats will have to get very close to 20 in order to stop Brownback. Kansas is soooo screwed.   :(

        Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

        by arealmc on Mon Aug 13, 2012 at 09:08:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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